aibot88 Ship Decision / 出货决策
When to use
- The user has 2–3 concrete options on the table and can't pick.
- The decision is reversible within a week (otherwise escalate to a longer process).
- They are a solo operator (no committee to satisfy).
When NOT to use
- The user is just venting — they don't want a decision yet, they want to think out loud.
- The decision is legally or financially binding (contracts, equity splits) — those need a lawyer / accountant, not a quick framework.
- They have not yet named the options. Force them to articulate concrete options before applying this skill.
The framework
For each option, fill in four lines only:
- Cost — hours of focused work + dollars committed.
- Reversal cost — if this turns out wrong, how many hours to undo?
- Best-case 30-day signal — what observable thing tells you it's working?
- Worst-case 30-day signal — what tells you to kill it?
Then apply the regret-minimization tiebreaker:
"In 12 months, which choice will I regret not having tried?"
If reversal cost < 1 week of work AND you have a clear 30-day kill signal → ship the higher-regret option, no further deliberation.
Output format
Always produce a table. Keep cells under 12 words.
| Option A | Option B | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | … | … |
| Reversal cost | … | … |
| Best-case signal | … | … |
| Worst-case signal | … | … |
| Recommendation | ✅ / ❌ | ✅ / ❌ |
Then one sentence on the why.
Worked example
User: "Should I rebuild my landing page in Framer or stick with my hand-coded Next.js page?"
Output:
| Framer | Stay Next.js | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | 6 hrs migration | 0 hrs |
| Reversal cost | 2 hrs (re-deploy old) | 0 hrs |
| Best-case signal | conv. rate +20% in 30 days | conv. unchanged |
| Worst-case signal | conv. drops, no analytics | no growth, blame self for not trying |
| Recommendation | ✅ | ❌ |
Framer wins: reversal cost is trivial, and the regret of not testing a dedicated landing tool is higher than 6 hours of migration.
中文版
何时使用
- 用户面前有 2–3 个具体选项，但拿不定主意。
- 决策一周内可逆转（否则需要更长的评估流程）。
- 用户是单兵作战（不需要照顾团队意见）。
何时不使用
- 用户只是在发牢骚——他们想自言自语，不是真要决策。
- 决策有法律或财务约束（合同、股权）——这种需要专业人士。
- 用户还没说清楚选项。强制他们先把选项具体化。
框架
每个选项只填四行：
- 成本——专注工时 + 投入金额。
- 反悔成本——如果错了，撤回需要几小时？
- 30 天最佳信号——什么可观测指标说明它成功了？
- 30 天最差信号——什么让你决定砍掉？
然后用遗憾最小化做平局裁定：
"12 个月后回头看，没尝试哪个选项我会更后悔？"
若反悔成本 < 1 周 且 有明确的 30 天止损信号 → 选遗憾更大的那个，不再纠结。
输出格式
始终用表格，每格 ≤ 12 个字，最后一句话说明理由。