Alanlee0323 Analyzing Macro Regime
When to use this skill
- When the user asks for top-down macro context.
- When investment conclusions need rate/inflation/growth framing.
- When scenario planning requires macro sensitivity.
Workflow
- Plan
- Define the regime question (inflationary slowdown, disinflationary growth, recession risk, etc.).
- Select required indicators before analysis.
- Validate
- Confirm indicator timestamps and release windows.
- Confirm geography and period consistency.
- Execute
- Build a compact regime view from indicators.
- Translate regime into sector/asset implications.
- List leading indicators that could invalidate the view.
Instructions
- Use a fixed indicator set unless user scope says otherwise:
- Inflation trend
- Policy rate and real rate direction
- Labor market momentum
- Growth momentum
- Credit/financial conditions
- Distinguish level vs direction (high inflation vs falling inflation).
- Separate cyclical signals from structural narratives.
- Tie macro view to valuation impact, not just story.
Regime checklist
- Indicator dates and sources stated
- Current regime hypothesis stated
- Alternative regime stated
- Portfolio or sector implications stated
- Invalidation triggers stated
Output template
## Macro Regime Assessment
### Current Regime Hypothesis
- <regime label>
- Confidence: <High/Medium/Low>
### Indicator Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest | Direction | Interpretation |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Inflation | ... | ... | ... |
| Policy Rate | ... | ... | ... |
### Investment Implications
- Sector tilt: <...>
- Valuation pressure/support: <...>
### Invalidation Triggers
- <trigger 1>
Error handling
- If key macro data is stale, state staleness and reduce confidence.
- If indicators conflict, present competing regime views.
- If user asks for precision not supported by data, provide scenario ranges instead.
Resources
- Official macro data sources (for example: FRED, BEA, BLS)
scanning-macro-news（上游技能：提供最新宏觀事件掃描，確保體制判斷基於即時資訊）monitoring-geopolitical-risk（協同技能：地緣事件的傳導分析可作為體制判斷輸入）collecting-market-data（協同技能：提供即時市場數據佐證體制方向）stress-testing-portfolio（下游技能：將體制判斷轉化為組合壓力測試情境）