alexe-ev Run Forecasting Scenarios
Purpose
Help teams build structured scenario forecasts that surface the range of possible outcomes and their business implications.
Skill type
Conceptual skill with analytical components
Use this skill when
- A team needs to plan under uncertainty and wants to test assumptions
- Leadership needs a view of upside, base case, and downside scenarios
- A product decision has different revenue implications depending on execution
- Annual or quarterly planning requires a range of projections
Do not use this skill when
- The goal is unit economics analysis (use analyze-unit-economics)
- A one-point forecast is sufficient and uncertainty is low
Required inputs
- Metric to forecast (revenue, users, CAC, churn, etc.)
- Current baseline and growth context
- Time horizon
Optional inputs
- Key assumptions to vary
- Strategic initiatives that affect the forecast
- Historical trends
- Competitive or market context
Upstream context
Works best when:
- Baseline metrics are known
- Key growth drivers are identified
Downstream handoff
Output can feed:
- build-business-case (scenarios feed investment cases)
- align-revenue-strategy
Instructions
- Define the metric being forecasted and the time horizon.
- Establish the current baseline.
- Identify the key drivers and assumptions that affect the forecast.
- Build 3 scenarios: base case, upside, downside.
- For each scenario, vary assumptions and project the outcome.
- Identify which assumptions have the most leverage.
- Recommend which scenario to plan for and why.
Output
Provide:
- Metric and time horizon
- Baseline
- Key assumptions per scenario
- Scenario table: base / upside / downside with projections
- Sensitivity analysis: which assumptions drive the most variance
- Planning recommendation
- Confidence level
Risks / caveats
- Forecasts are wrong — the value is in understanding the assumptions, not the number
- Present ranges, not false precision
- Update forecasts when key assumptions change — stale forecasts mislead