BioResearch Agent — Causal Evidence Chain Skill
Capability
Runs the full causal-evidence chain for a set of loci:
- GWAS → eQTL — per-SNP association in both trait and expression.
- Colocalization — full 5-hypothesis coloc (Giambartolomei 2014), reporting
PP.H4(shared causal variant) vsPP.H3(distinct variants). Numerically stable (log-space ABF). - TWAS — S-PrediXcan-style expression-trait association (Z, p).
- Fine-mapping — Bayesian credible set via per-SNP posterior inclusion probability (PIP), normalized over the locus.
- MR — Wald-ratio causal estimate for the colocalized gene's lead SNP.
Returns a per-gene evidence table + credible-set CSV + locus heatmap, not a biological claim.
Run
bioresearch run causal-evidence --seed 42 --output-dir outputs/causal-evidence
Outputs (in --output-dir)
CE_per_gene_results.csv— per-gene: truth class,PP.H4, TWAS Z/p, MR β/p, n credibleCE_credible_sets.csv— per-SNP PIP + credible-set membershipCE_locus_heatmap.png— GWAS / eQTL / coloc association heatmapCE_recovery_benchmark.csv— ground-truth recovery across effect sizesCE_summary_report.txt— human-readable summaryCE_evidence_package.json— reproducible Evidence Package (provenance + benchmark + grade)
Note
This skill dispatches to the framework's causal-evidence workflow / demo_causal_evidence.py.
It adds no analysis of its own; all statistics run in the workflow modules. By default uses
synthetic loci with ground-truth labels to validate the engine — real-data AD reference loci
(TREM2 / BIN1 / APOE / CLU / PICALM) are listed as the target for a real-data version. Evidence
grade is C (methodology validation).