---
name: alphagbm-fear-score
description: Calculates a per-ticker panic index (0-100) from six weighted signals including VIX, IV Rank, RSI-14, volume anomaly, put/call ratio, and consecutive down days, triggering Bull Put Spread entry signals at scores ≥60.
---

# AlphaGBM FearScore

A weighted composite panic gauge, per ticker. Reconstructs the FearDesk framework in
one API call: six orthogonal fear signals, each scored 0–100, then combined with
fixed weights into a single number. **Score ≥ 60 is the historical trigger for Bull
Put Spread entries.**

## Scoring Weights

| Indicator | Weight | Source |
|-----------|--------|--------|
| VIX level | 20% | Global fear floor (market-wide) |
| **IV Rank** | 25% | Per-ticker option premium expensiveness |
| RSI-14 | 15% | Oversold intensity |
| Volume anomaly | 15% | Options or stock volume spike vs 5-day avg |
| Put/Call ratio | 15% | Bearish positioning skew |
| Consecutive down days | 10% | Selloff persistence |

Each indicator has its own 0–100 sub-score with thresholds tuned so extreme readings
contribute most. Missing inputs fall back to neutral values (and are flagged in
`components.*.fallback`), so the endpoint never 500s on partial data.

## Why It Exists

Most fear gauges are either VIX-only (miss per-ticker divergence) or opaque
("sentiment index: 72"). This breaks down exactly what drove the score so you can
decide whether to trust it.

**Backtest evidence:** Across 146 live Bull Put Spread trades, entries at
FearScore ≥ 60 delivered ~10.8% annualized ROC vs ~3.5% for unconditional entries —
roughly **3× the alpha** from a single filter. Use this as the market-timing layer
on any premium-selling strategy.

## How to Use

**Input:** A ticker symbol.

**Output:**
- `fear_score` — weighted total 0-100
- `signal` — boolean, true when `fear_score ≥ threshold` (default 60)
- `threshold` — current trigger value
- `confidence` — 0-1, fraction of the 6 indicators that used real (non-fallback) data
- `components.{vix,iv_rank,rsi,volume_anomaly,pc_ratio,consecutive_down}`:
  - `value` — raw input
  - `score` — 0-100 per-indicator score
  - `weight` — contribution weight
  - `fallback` — true if neutral default was used

**Example Queries:**
- `fear score QQQ` — Full breakdown of the 6 indicators for QQQ
- `is NVDA oversold right now` — RSI + FearScore composite
- `BPS signal SPY` — Check if entry threshold is hit
- `when should I sell put AAPL` — Timing via FearScore ≥ 60 rule
- `how panicked is TSLA today` — Per-ticker panic index with component breakdown
- `why is QQQ fear score low` — Component-by-component explanation

## Mock Data

Mock data in `mock-data/fear-score/` — example responses at neutral / elevated /
signal-triggered readings.

## API Endpoint

```
GET /api/options/fear-score?ticker={SYMBOL}
```

Query params:
- `ticker` (required) — stock symbol (US / HK / CN supported if whitelisted)

Response shape:

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "ticker": "QQQ",
  "fear_score": 68.2,
  "signal": true,
  "threshold": 60,
  "confidence": 1.0,
  "components": {
    "vix": {"value": 28.4, "score": 82, "weight": 0.20, "fallback": false},
    "iv_rank": {"value": 78, "score": 78, "weight": 0.25, "fallback": false},
    "rsi": {"value": 24.1, "score": 88, "weight": 0.15, "fallback": false},
    "volume_anomaly": {"value": 2.3, "score": 72, "weight": 0.15, "fallback": false},
    "pc_ratio": {"value": 1.6, "score": 80, "weight": 0.15, "fallback": false},
    "consecutive_down": {"value": 3, "score": 60, "weight": 0.10, "fallback": false}
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}
```

Pricing: 1 option-analysis credit per call; per-ticker 5-min cache (cache hits free).

## Related Skills

| Skill | Relevance |
|-------|-----------|
| [alphagbm-vix-status](../alphagbm-vix-status/) | Market-wide version of the VIX input |
| [alphagbm-iv-rank](../alphagbm-iv-rank/) | IV Rank (25% of the composite) standalone |
| [alphagbm-options-strategy](../alphagbm-options-strategy/) | BPS/Sell-Put strategies that should respect the ≥60 signal |

---

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