AlphaGBM AlphaGBM Howard Marks Cycle
"Cycles are real — the shape just isn't predictable." Howard Marks's framework rejects forecasting and replaces it with cycle-position awareness: offense when others are pessimistic, defense when others are optimistic.
This skill gives you the one number Marks's entire philosophy implies: where are we right now.
The Cycle Score
Each signal is mapped to its own cycle component 0-100, then weighted:
| Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 40% | Low VIX → complacency → late cycle (high score). High VIX → fear → early cycle (low score) |
| IV Rank (SPY) | 25% | High IV rank → fear → early cycle |
| Put/Call ratio | 20% | Low P/C → complacent → late cycle |
| Valuation percentile | 15% | Higher PE percentile → later cycle |
Weights renormalize when data points are missing (e.g., P/C not available).
Posture Bands
- 0-24 →
OFFENSE_HARD— extreme fear is opportunity. Buy aggressively. - 25-39 →
OFFENSE— add, sell vol (short premium). - 40-59 →
NEUTRAL— maintain positions, watch for shifts. - 60-74 →
DEFENSE— don't add, brace for volatility. - 75-100 →
DEFENSE_HARD— trim, buy protection (long puts / collars).
Why This Is a Separate Skill
alphagbm-vix-status gives just a VIX tier. alphagbm-market-sentiment gives a
sentiment dashboard. This skill is the one-call Marks-specific read:
"given everything I know about sentiment + valuation, what's the posture?"
How to Use
Input: none (market-level, no ticker)
Output:
cycle_score: integer 0-100posture: one ofOFFENSE_HARD / OFFENSE / NEUTRAL / DEFENSE / DEFENSE_HARDposture_zh,posture_en: natural-language prescriptioncomponents: per-signal{value, cycle_component}breakdown
Example Queries
where are we in the cycle right now→ headline cycle number + postureshould I be playing offense or defense→ posture directly answersHoward Marks read on the market→ same data, framed as Marks wouldis this a buying cycle→ cycle < 30 → yes; cycle > 60 → nocurrent sentiment across VIX and IV rank→ components breakdown
Mock Data
Mock data in mock-data/marks-cycle/ — sample showing NEUTRAL position.
API Endpoint
GET /api/masters/marks-cycle
No body. Requires an authenticated request (API key or supported user token).
Response shape:
{
"success": true,
"cycle_score": 47,
"posture": "NEUTRAL",
"posture_zh": "中性 — 维持既定仓位,观察情绪变化",
"posture_en": "Neutral — maintain positions, watch sentiment",
"components": {
"vix": {"value": 22.5, "cycle_component": 48},
"iv_rank": {"value": 55, "cycle_component": 45}
},
"timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}
Pricing: no analysis-credit deduction; authentication is still required. 5-min cache.
Related Skills
| Skill | Relevance |
|---|---|
| alphagbm-vix-status | Raw VIX tier without Marks's multi-signal blend |
| alphagbm-market-sentiment | Fuller sentiment dashboard (VIX + P/C + F&G) |
| alphagbm-fear-score | Per-ticker version of the same "where's the fear" idea |
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