Payroll Forecast

Overview

Answers one question conservatively: can the owner make payroll from cash they actually control? It does NOT count unpaid invoices as available cash. Best practice for a payroll go/no-go is a direct cash forecast under the conservatism principle: recognize every obligation in full, and do not anticipate collections that have not landed. The skill is read-only.

Workflow

<Definition - Cash Floor> The conservative position that decides the verdict: cleared bank cash minus cash_buffer minus all must-pay obligations due on or before payday. "Cleared bank cash" is the sum of CurrentBalance across active Bank-type accounts only, excluding restricted accounts (trust/IOLTA/escrow/holding/reserve), Other Current Asset, and receivables. Floor at or above 0 means payroll is covered on cash the owner controls; below 0 means short by that amount. </Definition - Cash Floor>

<Definition - Must-Pay Obligations> Every committed cash outflow due on or before payday, not just QuickBooks Bill records:

• Net wages for the pay run (see Definition - Payroll Breakdown).
• Withheld and employer payroll taxes for the run (senior; personal-liability trust-fund taxes).
• All open Bills due on or before payday, including bills with a missing or null DueDate (never let a null due date silently drop a real obligation).
• Sales tax payable due in the window.
• Scheduled debt, loan, line-of-credit, and credit-card payments, and known recurring auto-pay or ACH debits (rent, utilities, SaaS) due in the window even if not entered as a Bill. For a credit card or loan, the obligation is the PAYMENT DUE before payday, NOT the full account balance. Payroll, payroll taxes, rent, loans, and taxes are never deferral candidates. If a potential must-pay has an unknown amount or due date, resolve it before the verdict or compute the floor both ways with a caveat. </Definition - Must-Pay Obligations>

<Definition - Payroll Breakdown> Where the data exists, report gross pay, employer taxes, benefits, and net pay. Call out the SENIOR trust-fund portion explicitly and distinctly: withheld federal/state income tax and the employee share of Social Security and Medicare are trust-fund taxes held on behalf of employees and the government. They are non-deferrable, with personal owner liability (Trust Fund Recovery Penalty). The employer share of FICA and FUTA/SUTA are also must-pay. Many owners run payroll through a separate provider, so this is often not in QuickBooks; when it is not, ask for the gross and the tax portion rather than guessing, and treat the whole amount as senior must-pay. </Definition - Payroll Breakdown>

<Definition - Expected Collections> Open invoices with Balance > 0 and DueDate on or before payday, risk-adjusted before being shown as UPSIDE ONLY: weight by how current each invoice is (long-overdue balances are low-probability), respect clearing time (a payment within roughly 1 to 3 days of payday may not clear via ACH/check float), and never add them to the floor or the verdict. Show them only as a separate "if collected" line and as a ranked action list. </Definition - Expected Collections>

<Definition - Order-of-Magnitude Outlier> Within a set of comparable figures (expected invoices, bills due), any value at least 10x the median of the OTHER values, or at least 10x the next largest. Require a set of 4+ before applying. Flag EVERY qualifying record, not just the largest, across both invoices AND bills. Treat an outlier as possibly mis-keyed (an extra zero) and flag it for confirmation; never silently sum it. The ledger figure stands as the real number, and the skill never declares a record fake. Wording: never call a record "test data", "fake", "a typo", or "an error"; state only how it compares ("far larger than your other invoices") and ask, with any possible cause inside the question ("was an extra zero entered?"). </Definition - Order-of-Magnitude Outlier>

<Definition - Proactive Alert> A standing payroll-forecast skill is reactive. To meet a pre-payday warning, the skill may offer to schedule a recurring check via agent_management that fires alert_lead_days before each payday and re-runs this read-only projection, alerting only on a projected shortfall. Offer it only when no such scheduled check exists AND the owner has no recorded decision in memory. On accept, create the task; on decline, record the decision so it is not re-asked. When a shortfall is already projected, actively recommend the alert rather than offering it neutrally. Scheduled tasks run locally and fire only while the machine is on and Quick is running. </Definition - Proactive Alert>

<Workflow - Payday Cash Projection description="Compute the conservative cash floor for an upcoming payday and a covered/short verdict." tools=[quickbooks, agent_management, memory_management] triggers=["will I make payroll", "can I make payroll this week", "payday cash check", "project cash for payday", "cash flow projection"]

1. [Agent] Read cleared bank cash. Query SELECT * FROM Account WHERE AccountType = 'Bank'. Sum CurrentBalance across active Bank accounts, excluding any whose name suggests restricted funds (trust/IOLTA/escrow/holding/reserve); list those separately. Do not query or include Other Current Asset. Validate: At least one Bank account with a numeric CurrentBalance; restricted accounts separated. If fails: Ask which account funds payroll, or check that QuickBooks is connected.

2. [Agent] Read the payroll obligation. Query payroll liability accounts (AccountType = 'Other Current Liability') and recent Purchase/JournalEntry transactions near payday. Break payroll down per Definition - Payroll Breakdown (gross, employer taxes, benefits, net) and flag the senior trust-fund portion. Validate: A positive net wage figure and, where available, the tax portion, both flagged must-pay. If fails: Payroll is often run externally and absent from QuickBooks. Ask the owner for the gross and the tax portion (Rule 11). Never guess.

3. [Agent] Read all other must-pay obligations due on or before payday per Definition - Must-Pay Obligations. Pull open Bills (Balance > '0') and bucket by date client-side so null-due-date bills are kept and shown as a distinct line. Read liability/credit-card accounts and recurring debits for loan/card/auto-pay PAYMENTS due in the window (the payment, not the balance); if a class cannot be read, state the assumption ("no loan/card payments found; confirm none are due") rather than treating it as $0. Run the outlier check across BILL amounts too, flagging any suspect bill. Validate: Each item has an amount; null-due bills included and shown distinctly; card/loan items reflect the payment due not the balance; unknown items marked "unresolved" for Step 7. If fails: Report which class could not be read and proceed with the explicit assumption stated.

4. [Agent] Read expected collections per Definition - Expected Collections. Query SELECT * FROM Invoice WHERE DueDate <= '{{payday_date}}' AND Balance > '0', risk-adjust by aging and clearing time, and run the outlier check. This is UPSIDE ONLY and never added to the floor. Validate: Each invoice has a due date and balance; outliers flagged; nothing here enters the floor. If fails: Set expected collections to $0 and note it.

5. [Think] Compute the Cash Floor per Definition - Cash Floor: cleared bank cash minus cash_buffer minus (net wages + payroll taxes + all other must-pay obligations). No receivables in this figure. Validate: Result is a number; receivables excluded; buffer subtracted. If fails: Present the component numbers for the owner to verify.

6. [Think] Compute the upside: Floor plus risk-adjusted expected collections, labeled "if collected" and clearly uncertain. Never present it as the verdict. Validate: Upside is clearly distinguished from the floor.

7. [Decide] Issue the verdict from the FLOOR, and always state days until payday. Before declaring "covered", check for any obligation marked unresolved in Step 3: if one exists, either ask the owner to resolve it or present the floor BOTH ways (with and without it) and state the caveat. Never bury it.

   • Floor at or above 0, no unresolved must-pay: "Covered. Funded from cash you control, above your buffer. N days until payday."
   • Floor at or above 0 with an unresolved must-pay: "Covered on what's confirmed (floor $X, N days to payday), but an unconfirmed [card/loan] payment of up to $Y is outstanding; confirm it. Even subtracting it, the floor is $Z."
   • Floor below 0, upside at or above 0: "Short $X on cash you control, N days until payday. Closeable only by collecting specific invoices in time."
   • Floor below 0, upside below 0: "Short $X even if expected collections land; needs action beyond collections. N days until payday." Validate: Verdict states days until payday and any dollar shortfall; unresolved items surfaced at the verdict; based on the floor not the upside.

8. [Agent] When the floor is short, present options in priority order:

   • Accelerate collections: rank the top 3 receivables that, if collected and cleared before payday, would most close the gap, with how much each closes. If every receivable is long-overdue or a flagged outlier, say "no invoice is realistically collectible before payday" instead of skipping the list.
   • Defer non-senior bills: identify which non-senior obligations can be pushed past payday (largest first) with the math. Never defer payroll, payroll taxes, rent, loans, or taxes.
   • Line of credit / transfer: check for an LOC/credit account and state available headroom ("LOC shows $0 drawn, up to $X available"), or say none exists; suggest a transfer if multiple bank accounts exist.
   • Partial payroll: last resort only, with the warning that missed wages and unpaid trust-fund taxes carry legal and personal liability. Validate: Options shown only when short; senior obligations never in the defer list. If fails: If nothing can be safely deferred, say so and focus on collections and credit.

9. [Agent] Render the projection using <Template - Projection Card>, leading with the floor verdict, then payroll (trust-fund taxes distinct), other must-pay, buffer, the floor, and the labeled upside. Validate: The floor verdict is the headline; trust-fund taxes are visually distinct; upside is secondary and labeled uncertain; numbers reconcile. If fails: Present the component data in a simple table.

10. [Decide] Offer a proactive pre-payday alert per Definition - Proactive Alert. Check list_scheduled_agents and recall_memories ("payroll alert scheduling decision") first.

• If a schedule exists, a decision is recorded, or this run was launched by that task: skip the offer.
• Otherwise offer once; if a shortfall is projected, actively recommend it ("you're projected short on [date]; want me to check {{alert_lead_days}} days before and alert you?"). On accept, create_scheduled_agent to re-run this read-only projection alert_lead_days before payday and alert on a shortfall; confirm timing and how to cancel. On decline, record the decision. Validate: Either an existing schedule/decision was found and the offer skipped, or the offer was made once and the outcome recorded. If fails: If scheduling tools are unavailable, tell the owner to re-run manually before payday.

</Workflow - Payday Cash Projection>

<Template - Projection Card>

# Payday Cash Projection: {{payday_date}}

{{staleness_warning_if_any}}

Cash you control: {{cleared_bank_cash}} (Bank accounts; restricted funds shown separately)
Payroll due: {{payroll_total}} = net wages {{net_wages}} + trust-fund taxes {{trust_fund_taxes}} (withheld income tax + employee FICA: senior, personal-liability, non-deferrable) + other employer taxes {{employer_taxes}}
Other must-pay before payday: {{other_obligations_total}} ({{count}} items, incl. bills/taxes/loan+card payments due; null-due bills listed). Any unconfirmed item shown here, not hidden
Buffer: {{cash_buffer}}
CASH FLOOR (the verdict): {{floor}} ({{covered_or_short}}). {{days_until_payday}} days to payday
If you collect expected invoices: +{{upside_amount}} to {{upside_total}} (uncertain; not counted in the verdict)

{{options_if_short}}

</Template - Projection Card>