Demand Research

Demand Research

Answer one question: is there enough credible demand evidence to make this product bet now? Keep the result small enough to paste into Product Bet.

First decide whether research earns its cost

Skip research when any applies:

• The ticket is a child contribution; inherit the epic's demand case.
• The work is mandated, compliance-driven, or parity work.
• A cheap reversible experiment can test the assumption more directly.
• The demand claim would not change scope, priority, or the build/no-build call.

When skipping, state the reason in one sentence. Do not manufacture a research appendix to make the plan look complete.

Research loop

1. Frame the single decision neutrally so either outcome is acceptable, and name the demand claim that could change it. Do not frame the task as proving demand.
2. Start with first-party evidence: customer requests, usage, sales/support records, interviews, or the user's supplied material.
3. Fill only meaningful gaps with current external sources. Prefer primary sources and record the date checked.
4. Grade evidence by sacrifice: behavior, money, time, or switching cost beats stated interest. Separate direct evidence from inference.
5. Run a disconfirmation pass: seek the strongest evidence against demand, including non-adoption, abandonment, unwillingness to pay, and contradictory usage. Report supporting and contradicting evidence together, name the strongest alternative explanation, and say what would change the verdict. When the evidence permits competing interpretations, state the ambiguity instead of resolving it in the sponsor's favor. Missing negative evidence is unknown, not support.
6. Stop when the decision can be made or the cheapest next validation is clear.

Output

Return exactly these four compact parts:

• Verdict — PRESENT, WEAK, ABSENT, or UNAVAILABLE: one sentence tied to the decision, not a market-size claim.
• Strongest evidence: up to three dated bullets with links or local evidence identities; label inferences.
• Gaps: only unknowns that could reverse the verdict.
• Cheapest validation: one concrete next test, or none when evidence is already sufficient.

ABSENT and UNAVAILABLE are evidence states, not approval blockers. Do not invent evidence or upgrade demand strength when sources are unavailable.

Update Problem / Why now with the verdict and strongest decision-bearing evidence. Do not add a separate research document unless the evidence itself is too large to cite compactly.