ariaxhan Experiment On Rules
Rules without evidence are superstitions with formatting. This skill turns an operating belief into a hypothesis, tests it, and updates confidence.
Use for AI workflows, writing processes, coding rules, research habits, team norms, prompt patterns, review methods, or automation policies.
1. Sense the state
Collect candidate rules or claims from:
- Existing instructions
- Repeated user preferences
- Team/process docs
- Prior failures
- Current workflow assumptions
- Quantitative claims
If no explicit rule exists, extract one from behavior: "We seem to believe X helps Y."
2. Seed hypotheses
Convert each rule into a falsifiable statement:
If we do X in context Y, outcome Z improves because of mechanism M.
Each hypothesis needs:
- ID
- Statement
- Source
- Domain
- Expected effect
- What would support it
- What would refute it
- Initial confidence
If no observation could refute it, rewrite it.
3. Pick the next hypothesis
Prioritize:
- Most uncertain
- Highest impact
- Least tested
- Easiest ethical/safe test
Do not test everything at once.
4. Design the lightest experiment
Choose one:
- Historical: query prior work, logs, notes, commits, or outcomes.
- Comparative: run similar tasks with and without the rule.
- Ablation: deliberately remove the rule in a safe context and observe.
- Observational: tag future tasks and collect evidence passively.
Define before running:
- Method
- Measurement
- Control condition
- Support criteria
- Refute criteria
- Minimum sample size
- Safety limits
5. Run and record evidence
Capture raw observations:
- Counts
- Timings
- Error rates
- Rework
- Quality scores
- User corrections
- Concrete examples
- Confounds
Never fabricate missing evidence. If the experiment cannot run, mark it inconclusive and say why.
6. Conclude
Verdicts:
- Supports: evidence clearly aligns
- Refutes: evidence clearly contradicts
- Inconclusive: evidence is weak, noisy, or confounded
Update confidence:
- Supporting evidence raises confidence.
- Refuting evidence lowers confidence.
- Inconclusive evidence records learning without changing much.
Do not modify the hypothesis after seeing results. Write a new mutated hypothesis instead.
7. Evolve the ruleset
Recommend:
- Graduate: keep and strengthen the rule
- Kill: remove or stop following it
- Mutate: rewrite into a sharper hypothesis
- Observe: gather more passive evidence
Human approval is required before changing important standing instructions.
8. Report
Return:
- Hypothesis tested
- Experiment design
- Evidence
- Verdict
- Confidence change
- Recommended rule change
- Remaining uncertainty