PM Release to Learn
Use this skill after a product slice, skill package, documentation release, or
AI configuration change has current proof that a reader can inspect. It turns
the release into a bounded rollout and learning loop: who sees it, what they
can try, what will be observed, what must not worsen, when to stop or roll
back, and where the learning will change the next decision.
The output is an operating plan. It is not a claim that the release is
adopted, successful, production-ready, or close to a growth target.
When to use
Use it for:
- a verified product or skill release moving into a public preview or pilot;
- a staged rollout that needs a cohort, exposure boundary, and observation
window;
- an AI model, prompt, provider, or configuration change with an approved
evaluation and a monitored fallback;
- a documentation or developer-tool release where first use and reproducible
feedback matter more than a vanity reaction;
- a release owner who needs one next decision after a bounded observation.
Do not use it to:
- plan a rollout when the artifact, version, release proof, or rollback path is
not inspectable; return
Need evidence;
- call traffic, page views, downloads, stars, or forks adoption without a
defined method, eligible population, and outcome measure;
- forecast growth, promise a star count, manufacture a testimonial, or turn an
owner-written pilot comment into external usage evidence;
- publish posts, create flags, change permissions, send messages, alter a
database, or perform a rollback automatically;
- replace an experiment readout, metric contract, AI evaluation plan, or
incident response when that specialized evidence is missing.
Guardrails
- Freeze the release identity: artifact, version, commit or tag, canonical
URL, environment, date, and current verification. Stale proof does not prove
the current rollout.
- Keep release proof, rollout exposure, participant/session evidence, adoption,
retention, channel performance, and star causality as separate evidence
layers.
- Name one rollout stage at a time. Public preview, pilot, and production are
different states; do not carry evidence from one state into another.
- Every learning signal needs a unit or observation rule, eligible exposure,
window, source, owner, and status. If it is proposed or manual, say so.
- A learning signal is not automatically a success claim. A traffic increase
can be a diagnostic or exposure count, not adoption or value.
- Define guardrails before the observation begins. Privacy leakage, unsafe AI
output, stale assets, broken first action, trust misread, accessibility
failure, cost, latency, and recovery failure can all trigger a hold or
rollback.
- A rollback trigger must name the version to restore, owner, scope, and
confirmation check. A written rollback action is not evidence that rollback
has been tested.
- For AI changes, keep model/provider/version, prompt or config boundary,
evaluation slices, fallback, human review, cost/latency, and regression
evidence visible.
- Minimize feedback capture. Never request names, private tickets, raw prompts,
credentials, tokens, confidential roadmap content, or sensitive customer
material in a public note.
- The skill produces a reviewable plan only. It does not post, reply, DM,
star, follow, open issues, mutate GitHub, alter analytics, or invoke a
provider.
Workflow
1. Freeze the release frame
Record the artifact, version, commit/tag, canonical path, environment, release
date, verification layers, owner, known limitations, and rollback candidate. If
the release proof is missing or stale, return Need evidence.
2. Define the rollout boundary
Choose one stage: maintainer, internal, public preview, pilot, or
production. State the intended audience, eligibility, exposure path,
prerequisite, first action, expected artifact, and what remains out of scope.
Keep the next stage deferred until its gate is met.
3. Set the observation window
Define when observation starts, the timebox or session length, completion or
exit condition, version boundary, and environment. If there is no telemetry,
choose a safe manual or fixture-based capture and label it Proposed.
4. Choose one learning question
Write the question that could change the next release decision. Choose one
primary learning signal, not a dashboard of convenient counts. State its unit,
eligible exposure, observation rule, source, owner, and status. Link to
pm-outcome-to-metric when the outcome or denominator needs design.
5. Define guardrails and monitors
List only the conditions that can change the rollout. Include release health,
trust, privacy, safety, accessibility, recovery, cost, latency, and AI fallback
checks when relevant. For each one, state the observation, threshold status,
owner, and failure action.
6. Pre-commit stop and rollback
State the proposed or supplied rule for Continue, Revise, Hold,
Rollback, or Need evidence. Name the rollback version, blast radius,
permission, confirmation check, and communication boundary. A release can be
verified and still be held from the next stage.
7. Capture safe feedback
Ask for one privacy-safe observation: context/version, first action, mismatch,
hesitation, recovery moment, limitation, or improvement. Keep feedback separate
from a testimonial, adoption result, and star request. Record the source ID or
session code without identity.
8. Write back the learning
Record what the observation supports, what it does not prove, the decision,
the unresolved risk, the next smallest question, and the artifact or issue
where an authorized owner will write it back. Route a measured result to
pm-experiment-to-readout, a concrete mismatch to pm-feedback-to-fix, and a
new build boundary to pm-decision-to-spec.
9. Review the stage transition
End with one decision: Continue, Revise, Hold, Rollback, or
Need evidence. The human owner must review the source truth, stage, links,
guardrails, privacy boundary, and rollback before changing exposure.
Output contract
Return the following sections in this order. Keep unsupported fields explicitly
Not provided, Unknown, Not measured, Not run, Proposed, or Not covered.
Release on the desk
State the artifact, version, commit/tag, canonical URL, environment, release
owner, current proof, known limitation, and decision on the next stage.
Evidence boundary
List release proof, rollout exposure, participant/session evidence, metrics,
feedback, adoption, channel performance, and star causality separately. State
what each source supports and does not prove.
Rollout boundary
State the current stage, target audience, eligibility, exposure path,
prerequisite, first action, expected artifact, next-stage gate, and deferred
stages.
Observation plan
State the learning question, primary learning signal, unit or observation rule,
eligible exposure, observation window, version/environment boundary, source,
owner, and status.
Guardrails and rollback
List release-health, trust, privacy, safety, accessibility, recovery, cost,
latency, or AI fallback guardrails that apply. For each, state the threshold
status, failure action, rollback version, blast radius, confirmation check, and
human permission boundary.
Feedback capture
Define the privacy-safe fields, source/session ID, feedback route, redactions,
and what must not be requested. Make clear that feedback is not a testimonial,
adoption result, or star exchange.
Decision and learning writeback
State the proposed or supplied stage decision, what the observation supports,
what remains unknown, the unresolved risk, next smallest question, owner, and
writeback location.
Not covered
List unsupported audience size, traffic, activation, adoption, retention,
business impact, star causality, model quality, versions, environments,
accessibility, localization, cost, safety, or rollback execution.
Implementation handoff
Give the authorized owner the smallest next action, affected release surface,
observation or QA evidence to collect, privacy review, rollback check, and
follow-on skill. A plan does not prove a rollout or rollback happened.
Review ask
Ask for exactly one decision: Continue, Revise, Hold, Rollback, or
Need evidence. Name the claim, stage, or rollback risk that needs review.
Edge cases
- Docs-only or skill release: use first-use and reproducibility as the
observation, label examples as fictional, and do not imply runtime adoption.
- Failed or rolled-back release: record the failure and recovery only when
the public evidence is current; otherwise choose
Hold or Need evidence.
- No rollback candidate: do not enter a wider stage; define the recovery
owner and safe hold path first.
- No telemetry: use a bounded manual session receipt or fixture check and
mark the signal
Proposed; never write an invented rate.
- No participants: keep the plan ready, but do not call the pilot active,
validated, or adopted.
- Traffic spike: record exposure as a signal and investigate its source;
do not call it value, activation, or retention.
- AI model/provider/config change: require regression slices, fallback,
human review, latency/cost status, and a rollback version before widening.
- Guardrail failure with primary signal improvement:
Hold, Revise, or
Rollback according to the pre-committed rule; do not average the failure
away.
- Sensitive feedback: redact raw content, keep only safe context and a
source/session code, and use the approved private route for details.
- Multiple channels or audiences: choose one stage and one primary path;
defer variants until their proof and learning question are separate.
- Synthetic or fictional rollout: label the entire output as a
fictional fixture;
it can test the plan but cannot support a rollout, adoption, or growth claim.
- Stale canonical link: stop the stage and re-freeze source truth before
sharing or changing exposure.
Final check
Before changing a rollout stage, confirm that:
- release identity and current proof are frozen;
- preview, pilot, and production states are not conflated;
- the stage has one audience, eligibility rule, first action, and next gate;
- the learning question has one primary signal, unit, exposure, window, source,
owner, and status;
- guardrails, privacy, AI fallback, and rollback trigger are visible;
- rollback version, scope, permission, and confirmation check are named;
- feedback is sanitized and not requested as a testimonial or star exchange;
- no traffic, metric, adoption, model-quality, or growth claim was added from
guesswork;
- the output ends with
Not covered and one review decision.
For a worked, fictional release learning plan, read
references/support-review-release-learning.md.
1---2name: pm-release-to-learn3description: Turn a verified product or skill release into a bounded rollout-and-learning plan with audience, exposure, observation window, success and guardrail signals, rollback trigger, feedback capture, and a next decision. Use after release proof exists and before or during a pilot when a PM needs to learn without turning traffic or stars into adoption claims.4---56# PM Release to Learn78Use this skill after a product slice, skill package, documentation release, or9AI configuration change has current proof that a reader can inspect. It turns10the release into a bounded rollout and learning loop: who sees it, what they11can try, what will be observed, what must not worsen, when to stop or roll12back, and where the learning will change the next decision.1314The output is an operating plan. It is not a claim that the release is15adopted, successful, production-ready, or close to a growth target.1617## When to use1819Use it for:2021- a verified product or skill release moving into a public preview or pilot;22- a staged rollout that needs a cohort, exposure boundary, and observation23 window;24- an AI model, prompt, provider, or configuration change with an approved25 evaluation and a monitored fallback;26- a documentation or developer-tool release where first use and reproducible27 feedback matter more than a vanity reaction;28- a release owner who needs one next decision after a bounded observation.2930Do not use it to:3132- plan a rollout when the artifact, version, release proof, or rollback path is33 not inspectable; return `Need evidence`;34- call traffic, page views, downloads, stars, or forks adoption without a35 defined method, eligible population, and outcome measure;36- forecast growth, promise a star count, manufacture a testimonial, or turn an37 owner-written pilot comment into external usage evidence;38- publish posts, create flags, change permissions, send messages, alter a39 database, or perform a rollback automatically;40- replace an experiment readout, metric contract, AI evaluation plan, or41 incident response when that specialized evidence is missing.4243## Guardrails4445- Freeze the release identity: artifact, version, commit or tag, canonical46 URL, environment, date, and current verification. Stale proof does not prove47 the current rollout.48- Keep release proof, rollout exposure, participant/session evidence, adoption,49 retention, channel performance, and star causality as separate evidence50 layers.51- Name one rollout stage at a time. Public preview, pilot, and production are52 different states; do not carry evidence from one state into another.53- Every learning signal needs a unit or observation rule, eligible exposure,54 window, source, owner, and status. If it is proposed or manual, say so.55- A learning signal is not automatically a success claim. A traffic increase56 can be a diagnostic or exposure count, not adoption or value.57- Define guardrails before the observation begins. Privacy leakage, unsafe AI58 output, stale assets, broken first action, trust misread, accessibility59 failure, cost, latency, and recovery failure can all trigger a hold or60 rollback.61- A rollback trigger must name the version to restore, owner, scope, and62 confirmation check. A written rollback action is not evidence that rollback63 has been tested.64- For AI changes, keep model/provider/version, prompt or config boundary,65 evaluation slices, fallback, human review, cost/latency, and regression66 evidence visible.67- Minimize feedback capture. Never request names, private tickets, raw prompts,68 credentials, tokens, confidential roadmap content, or sensitive customer69 material in a public note.70- The skill produces a reviewable plan only. It does not post, reply, DM,71 star, follow, open issues, mutate GitHub, alter analytics, or invoke a72 provider.7374## Workflow7576### 1. Freeze the release frame7778Record the artifact, version, commit/tag, canonical path, environment, release79date, verification layers, owner, known limitations, and rollback candidate. If80the release proof is missing or stale, return `Need evidence`.8182### 2. Define the rollout boundary8384Choose one stage: `maintainer`, `internal`, `public preview`, `pilot`, or85`production`. State the intended audience, eligibility, exposure path,86prerequisite, first action, expected artifact, and what remains out of scope.87Keep the next stage deferred until its gate is met.8889### 3. Set the observation window9091Define when observation starts, the timebox or session length, completion or92exit condition, version boundary, and environment. If there is no telemetry,93choose a safe manual or fixture-based capture and label it `Proposed`.9495### 4. Choose one learning question9697Write the question that could change the next release decision. Choose one98primary learning signal, not a dashboard of convenient counts. State its unit,99eligible exposure, observation rule, source, owner, and status. Link to100`pm-outcome-to-metric` when the outcome or denominator needs design.101102### 5. Define guardrails and monitors103104List only the conditions that can change the rollout. Include release health,105trust, privacy, safety, accessibility, recovery, cost, latency, and AI fallback106checks when relevant. For each one, state the observation, threshold status,107owner, and failure action.108109### 6. Pre-commit stop and rollback110111State the proposed or supplied rule for `Continue`, `Revise`, `Hold`,112`Rollback`, or `Need evidence`. Name the rollback version, blast radius,113permission, confirmation check, and communication boundary. A release can be114verified and still be held from the next stage.115116### 7. Capture safe feedback117118Ask for one privacy-safe observation: context/version, first action, mismatch,119hesitation, recovery moment, limitation, or improvement. Keep feedback separate120from a testimonial, adoption result, and star request. Record the source ID or121session code without identity.122123### 8. Write back the learning124125Record what the observation supports, what it does not prove, the decision,126the unresolved risk, the next smallest question, and the artifact or issue127where an authorized owner will write it back. Route a measured result to128`pm-experiment-to-readout`, a concrete mismatch to `pm-feedback-to-fix`, and a129new build boundary to `pm-decision-to-spec`.130131### 9. Review the stage transition132133End with one decision: `Continue`, `Revise`, `Hold`, `Rollback`, or134`Need evidence`. The human owner must review the source truth, stage, links,135guardrails, privacy boundary, and rollback before changing exposure.136137## Output contract138139Return the following sections in this order. Keep unsupported fields explicitly140`Not provided`, `Unknown`, `Not measured`, `Not run`, `Proposed`, or `Not covered`.141142## Release on the desk143144State the artifact, version, commit/tag, canonical URL, environment, release145owner, current proof, known limitation, and decision on the next stage.146147## Evidence boundary148149List release proof, rollout exposure, participant/session evidence, metrics,150feedback, adoption, channel performance, and star causality separately. State151what each source supports and does not prove.152153## Rollout boundary154155State the current stage, target audience, eligibility, exposure path,156prerequisite, first action, expected artifact, next-stage gate, and deferred157stages.158159## Observation plan160161State the learning question, primary learning signal, unit or observation rule,162eligible exposure, observation window, version/environment boundary, source,163owner, and status.164165## Guardrails and rollback166167List release-health, trust, privacy, safety, accessibility, recovery, cost,168latency, or AI fallback guardrails that apply. For each, state the threshold169status, failure action, rollback version, blast radius, confirmation check, and170human permission boundary.171172## Feedback capture173174Define the privacy-safe fields, source/session ID, feedback route, redactions,175and what must not be requested. Make clear that feedback is not a testimonial,176adoption result, or star exchange.177178## Decision and learning writeback179180State the proposed or supplied stage decision, what the observation supports,181what remains unknown, the unresolved risk, next smallest question, owner, and182writeback location.183184## Not covered185186List unsupported audience size, traffic, activation, adoption, retention,187business impact, star causality, model quality, versions, environments,188accessibility, localization, cost, safety, or rollback execution.189190## Implementation handoff191192Give the authorized owner the smallest next action, affected release surface,193observation or QA evidence to collect, privacy review, rollback check, and194follow-on skill. A plan does not prove a rollout or rollback happened.195196## Review ask197198Ask for exactly one decision: `Continue`, `Revise`, `Hold`, `Rollback`, or199`Need evidence`. Name the claim, stage, or rollback risk that needs review.200201## Edge cases202203- **Docs-only or skill release:** use first-use and reproducibility as the204 observation, label examples as fictional, and do not imply runtime adoption.205- **Failed or rolled-back release:** record the failure and recovery only when206 the public evidence is current; otherwise choose `Hold` or `Need evidence`.207- **No rollback candidate:** do not enter a wider stage; define the recovery208 owner and safe hold path first.209- **No telemetry:** use a bounded manual session receipt or fixture check and210 mark the signal `Proposed`; never write an invented rate.211- **No participants:** keep the plan ready, but do not call the pilot active,212 validated, or adopted.213- **Traffic spike:** record exposure as a signal and investigate its source;214 do not call it value, activation, or retention.215- **AI model/provider/config change:** require regression slices, fallback,216 human review, latency/cost status, and a rollback version before widening.217- **Guardrail failure with primary signal improvement:** `Hold`, `Revise`, or218 `Rollback` according to the pre-committed rule; do not average the failure219 away.220- **Sensitive feedback:** redact raw content, keep only safe context and a221 source/session code, and use the approved private route for details.222- **Multiple channels or audiences:** choose one stage and one primary path;223 defer variants until their proof and learning question are separate.224- **Synthetic or fictional rollout:** label the entire output as a `fictional fixture`;225 it can test the plan but cannot support a rollout, adoption, or growth claim.226- **Stale canonical link:** stop the stage and re-freeze source truth before227 sharing or changing exposure.228229## Final check230231Before changing a rollout stage, confirm that:232233- release identity and current proof are frozen;234- preview, pilot, and production states are not conflated;235- the stage has one audience, eligibility rule, first action, and next gate;236- the learning question has one primary signal, unit, exposure, window, source,237 owner, and status;238- guardrails, privacy, AI fallback, and rollback trigger are visible;239- rollback version, scope, permission, and confirmation check are named;240- feedback is sanitized and not requested as a testimonial or star exchange;241- no traffic, metric, adoption, model-quality, or growth claim was added from242 guesswork;243- the output ends with `Not covered` and one review decision.244245For a worked, fictional release learning plan, read246`references/support-review-release-learning.md`.