Pricing Packaging

Purpose

Produce an elite-tier pricing and packaging strategy document that selects the right monetization model, quantifies willingness-to-pay with evidence-graded confidence, maps competitive pricing positions, architects package tiers with conversion-optimized feature allocation, stress-tests revenue sensitivity, and models the impact of pricing changes on existing customers. The output is a Pricing Strategy Document — not a price list, but a structural assessment of what to charge, why, and what breaks if you are wrong.

When to Use / When NOT to Use

Use this skill when:

• Launching a new product and setting initial pricing
• Redesigning packaging tiers or feature allocation across plans
• Evaluating a price increase or decrease on existing customers
• Responding to a competitor's pricing move
• Designing usage-based or hybrid pricing for AI/SaaS products
• Assessing freemium conversion strategy and free-tier boundaries
• Preparing a pricing recommendation for leadership review

Do NOT use this skill when:

• You need a competitive landscape analysis (use Competitive Market Analysis skill — this skill includes competitive pricing but as one input, not the sole output)
• You need a full go-to-market strategy (pricing is one dimension; GTM includes channels, messaging, launch sequencing)
• You need financial modeling or P&L projections (this skill produces pricing recommendations with revenue sensitivity, not a financial model)
• You need customer research methodology (use Discovery & Research skill — then feed WTP findings into this skill)

Anti-inputs (what this skill does NOT handle):

• Detailed financial modeling or unit economics spreadsheets (this skill produces the pricing strategy that feeds financial models)
• Sales compensation design (adjacent to pricing but separate discipline)
• Contract negotiation tactics (this skill sets the pricing floor and ceiling; negotiation is execution)
• Transfer pricing or internal cost allocation (finance domain, not product pricing)

Context Gate (Step -1)

Before applying any pricing framework, verify that pricing strategy is the right artifact for this problem. Wrong-artifact analysis is more dangerous than wrong-framework analysis.

Gate questions — answer all four before proceeding:

Context Fitness Check:

Reader Navigation

How to Read This Document

By time available:

• 5 minutes: Read the Executive Summary and the Recommended Pricing Table only. The recommendation and its confidence level are there.
• 15 minutes: Add Model Selection rationale, Package Architecture summary, and Sensitivity Analysis table. You now understand the what, why, and risk.
• 30+ minutes: Read the full document. Cross-framework contradictions, assumption registry, and adversarial self-critique give you the complete picture.

By role:

• VP/GM: Executive Summary + Sensitivity Analysis + Implementation Plan. You need the recommendation, the revenue impact range, and the rollout timeline.
• PM: Full document. Every framework application and the package architecture rationale inform your execution decisions.
• Finance/Rev Ops: Sensitivity Analysis + Revenue Impact Modeling + Assumption Registry. Validate the numbers and stress-test the assumptions.
• Sales leadership: Competitive Pricing Map + Package Architecture + Implementation Plan. You need to know how to position against alternatives and what changes for existing customers.
• Engineering: Package Architecture (feature allocation) + AI/SaaS Pricing Patterns (metering requirements). You need to know what to build for billing and usage tracking.

Notation Key

Format Rules (Read First)

These rules govern every output produced by this codex. They are quality enforcement mechanisms, not style preferences.

1. Take positions on price points and models. Never hedge. "Likely," "may," "could," and "seems" are banned from pricing conclusions. Flag uncertainty with explicit confidence levels: H (>70% confident), M (40-70%), L (<40%). Example: "The optimal price point is $49/seat/month for the Pro tier (M — assumes mid-market WTP of $40-65 based on T3 interview data)" not "The price could be somewhere between $30 and $80."

2. Per-cell evidence tier annotation is mandatory in all comparison matrices. Every cell in a competitive pricing matrix, WTP range table, or feature allocation grid must carry an inline evidence tier tag: (T1), (T2), (T3) etc. Where evidence is absent: (T6: inferred). A matrix with untagged cells is incomplete.

3. The O->I->R->C->W cascade applies to ALL pricing recommendations, not just final sections. Format: Observation [evidence tier] -> Implication [mechanism] -> Response [specific pricing action] -> Confidence [H/M/L + assumption] -> Watch Indicator [observable signal].

4. Begin with Model Selection (Step 0) before setting any prices. Choosing the pricing model is a structural decision that constrains everything downstream. Setting prices before choosing the model is like designing rooms before choosing the building's foundation.

5. Every price recommendation must include a sensitivity range. A single price point without "what happens at +/-20%" is a guess, not a strategy. The sensitivity table is mandatory.

6. Flag time-sensitive claims. Any competitive pricing data older than 6 months must carry [POTENTIALLY STALE — verify before acting]. Competitor pricing changes frequently. Staleness in pricing intelligence is higher-risk than in most other competitive data.

7. Flag thin-evidence conclusions. If a WTP estimate or pricing recommendation rests only on Tier 4-6 evidence, prepend it with [EVIDENCE-LIMITED: validate with Tier 1-2 before acting].

8. First reference to any framework includes a one-line contextual explanation. "Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter — the four-question method for finding the acceptable price range" not just "Van Westendorp."

9. The Executive Summary uses zero framework jargon. A VP who has never heard of Van Westendorp, Gabor-Granger, or ERRC must be able to read the summary and make a decision.

Output Template (Mandatory Document Skeleton)

Every Pricing Strategy Document MUST follow this exact structure. Copy this skeleton and fill it in. Do not reorder sections, skip sections, or invent new top-level sections. If a framework was deprioritized in the Context Fitness Check, note "Deprioritized — not primary for this pricing context" in that section.

# Pricing Strategy: [Product/Feature Name]

> **Date:** [YYYY-MM-DD] | **Confidence band:** [Overall H/M/L] | **Staleness window:** [Date after which competitive pricing data needs revalidation]

---

## Executive Summary

[5 sentences max. Zero jargon. A VP reads only this and approves a pricing decision. Final sentence = the recommended pricing action in bold.]

---

## How to Read This Document

[Reader Navigation block — by time and by role. Copy from the skill's Reader Navigation section and customize for this specific document.]

---

## Step 0: Pricing Model Selection

| Criterion | Assessment | Recommended Model |
|-----------|-----------|-------------------|
| Customer type | [Enterprise / SMB / Consumer / Mixed] | |
| Value delivery | [Per-user / Per-usage / Per-outcome] | |
| Cost structure | [Fixed-heavy / Variable-heavy / Mixed] | |
| Competitive norms | [What model do alternatives use?] | |
| Expansion mechanics | [How does revenue grow within accounts?] | |

**Selected model:** [Model name] because [1-2 sentence rationale].

**Rejected alternatives:** [Which models were considered and why they were rejected.]

---

## 1. Willingness-to-Pay Assessment

**WTP Range:**

| Segment | Floor | Sweet Spot | Ceiling | Evidence | Confidence |
|---------|-------|------------|---------|----------|------------|
| [Segment A] | $X | $Y | $Z | (TX: source) | H/M/L |
| [Segment B] | $X | $Y | $Z | (TX: source) | H/M/L |

**Method used:** [Van Westendorp / Gabor-Granger / Conjoint / Competitive inference / Expert estimation]

**Key finding:** [One sentence — what does the WTP data tell us about pricing power?]

---

## 2. Competitive Pricing Map

| Competitor | Model | Entry Price | Mid Tier | Top Tier | Positioning | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|-------------|----------|----------|-------------|----------|
| [Comp A] | [model] | $X | $Y | $Z | [premium/parity/penetration] | (TX) |
| [Comp B] | [model] | $X | $Y | $Z | [positioning] | (TX) |
| **[Your Product]** | [model] | **$X** | **$Y** | **$Z** | **[positioning]** | |

**Price-Value Position Map:**
[Describe or render: competitors plotted on price (y) x perceived value (x). Identify gaps.]

**Reference price effect:** [What price do customers expect before seeing yours? Why?]

---

## 3. Package Architecture

### Tier Structure

| Dimension | Free / Starter | Pro / Growth | Enterprise |
|-----------|---------------|-------------|------------|
| Target persona | [who] | [who] | [who] |
| Core value proposition | [what job it does] | [what job it does] | [what job it does] |
| Key features | [list] | [list] | [list] |
| Usage limits | [limits] | [limits] | [limits or unlimited] |
| Price | [price] | [price] | [price or "Contact sales"] |
| Upgrade trigger | N/A | [what behavior signals upgrade] | [what behavior signals upgrade] |

### Feature Allocation Rationale

[For each feature placed in a specific tier: WHY it is there, not just THAT it is there. Link to WTP data or conversion incentive logic.]

### Add-On Strategy

| Add-on | Price | Why separate | Target buyer |
|--------|-------|-------------|-------------|
| [Add-on 1] | $X | [rationale] | [who buys this] |

---

## 4. AI/SaaS-Specific Pricing Patterns

[Apply only if relevant. If not an AI or SaaS product, write "Not applicable — [product type] pricing patterns applied instead."]

| Pattern | Assessment | Recommendation |
|---------|-----------|----------------|
| Value metric alignment | [Does price scale with value?] | |
| Marginal cost structure | [Cost per unit at scale] | |
| Usage metering approach | [Per-request / Per-token / Per-outcome] | |
| Bundle vs. unbundle | [Bundle AI into existing? Sell separately?] | |

---

## 5. Sensitivity Analysis

### Revenue Impact at Price Variations

| Scenario | Price | Est. Volume | Conversion Rate | Revenue/Mo | vs. Base |
|----------|-------|-------------|-----------------|------------|----------|
| -30% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |
| -20% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |
| -10% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |
| **Base (recommended)** | **$X** | **[vol]** | **[rate]** | **$R** | **--** |
| +10% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |
| +20% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |
| +30% | $X | [vol] | [rate] | $R | [+/-]% |

### Key Variable Sensitivity

| Variable | If wrong by 20% | Impact on recommendation |
|----------|-----------------|------------------------|
| [WTP estimate] | [what changes] | [does the recommended price change?] |
| [Conversion rate] | [what changes] | [does the tier structure change?] |
| [Marginal cost] | [what changes] | [does the model selection change?] |
| [Churn rate] | [what changes] | [does the grandfathering strategy change?] |

---

## 6. Revenue Impact Modeling (for price changes on existing products)

[If new product, write "New product — no existing customer base. Skip to Implementation Plan."]

| Impact Dimension | Estimate | Confidence | Evidence |
|-----------------|----------|-----------|----------|
| Existing customer churn risk | [X% at-risk] | H/M/L | (TX) |
| Grandfathering cost | [$X/mo revenue deferred] | H/M/L | (TX) |
| Expansion revenue uplift | [$X/mo from upgrades] | H/M/L | (TX) |
| Net revenue impact (12-month) | [$X] | H/M/L | |
| Competitive response likelihood | [H/M/L] | H/M/L | (TX) |

---

## 7. Strategic Recommendations (O->I->R->C->W Cascade)

**Recommendation 1: [Title]**
- **Observation** [TX]: [What we see]
- **Implication**: [Why it matters — the pricing mechanism]
- **Response**: [Specific pricing action + owner + timeline]
- **Confidence**: [H/M/L] — assumes [key assumption]
- **Watch**: [Observable signal]; if [threshold], re-assess

**Recommendation 2: [Title]**
[Same structure]

**Recommendation 3: [Title]**
[Same structure]

---

## Implementation Plan

| Phase | Timeline | Action | Owner | Risk |
|-------|----------|--------|-------|------|
| Announce | [date] | [what to communicate] | [who] | [risk] |
| Existing customers | [date] | [grandfathering / phase-in / immediate] | [who] | [risk] |
| New customers | [date] | [when new pricing takes effect] | [who] | [risk] |
| Monitor | [date+30d] | [what metrics to track] | [who] | |

---

## Cross-Framework Contradictions

| Contradiction | Framework A says | Framework B says | Resolution / Which to weight |
|---------------|-----------------|-----------------|------------------------------|
| [e.g., "WTP vs. competitive map"] | [WTP suggests $X] | [Competitive map suggests $Y] | [Which matters more and why] |

---

## Assumption Registry

| # | Assumption | Framework it underpins | Confidence | Evidence | What would invalidate this |
|---|-----------|----------------------|-----------|----------|---------------------------|
| 1 | | | H/M/L | (TX) | |
| 2 | | | H/M/L | (TX) | |
| 3 | | | H/M/L | (TX) | |

---

## Adversarial Self-Critique

**Weakness 1: [Title]**
[Steelmanned argument against this pricing strategy. What assumption is made? What evidence would disprove it? Scenario where this pricing is catastrophically wrong.]

**Weakness 2: [Title]**
[Same depth]

**Weakness 3: [Title]**
[Same depth]

---

## Revision Triggers

| Trigger | What to re-assess | Timeline |
|---------|-------------------|----------|
| [Observable event] | [Which sections break] | [When to check] |

---

## Sources

[All sources cited in the analysis, with evidence tier and date.]

Rules for using this template:

1. Do not skip sections. If a section is not applicable, write "Not applicable — [reason]" and move on.
2. Every table cell with a price, rate, or claim must have an evidence tier tag — (T1) through (T6).
3. Section headers are conclusions, not labels. Replace generic headers (e.g., "Willingness-to-Pay Analysis") with insight headers (e.g., "Mid-Market WTP Is 2x What We Charge — We Are Leaving Money on the Table") after completing the section.
4. The Executive Summary is written last but appears first. Do not write it until all sections are complete.
5. The Sensitivity Analysis table is mandatory. A pricing recommendation without a sensitivity range is a guess.

Domain Frameworks

This section IS the pricing codex. Each framework is encoded with its scoring rubrics, decision tables, and application methodology — not merely referenced. A PM using this skill produces pricing strategy that requires these frameworks; without them, the output degrades to intuition-based price setting.

Framework 1: Pricing Model Selection

The foundational decision — choosing the right pricing model constrains every downstream pricing choice. Choose the model BEFORE setting any price points.

Model Taxonomy:

Model Selection Matrix — use this decision table:

AI-Specific Model Considerations:

Scoring Rubric — Model Fit:

Anti-pattern: Competitor Mimicry. Choosing a model because the market leader uses it, without analyzing whether your cost structure and value delivery support it. Slack charges per-seat because collaboration value scales with users. An AI analytics tool charging per-seat when value is per-query will either underprice power users or overprice light users.

Framework 2: Willingness-to-Pay Assessment

What customers will actually pay — measured, not guessed. The WTP assessment is the empirical anchor for every price point in the strategy.

WTP Research Methods (ranked by evidence tier):

Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter — Four Questions:

1. At what price would this product be so cheap you would question its quality? -> Too Cheap threshold
2. At what price would this product be a bargain — great value for money? -> Cheap/Good Value threshold
3. At what price would this product start to feel expensive — you'd have to think carefully? -> Expensive threshold
4. At what price would this product be so expensive you would never consider it? -> Too Expensive threshold

Output — Van Westendorp Range:

Decision Table — WTP Evidence Quality:

Segment-Specific WTP — The One-Price Trap:

Never assume one price fits all segments. Different customers derive different value and have different alternatives.

Framework 3: Competitive Pricing Map

Where you sit relative to alternatives — and what that positioning implies for your pricing power.

Competitive Pricing Matrix:

Price-Value Positioning Map:

Plot every competitor on two axes:

• Y-axis: Price (monthly or annual cost for comparable usage)
• X-axis: Perceived Value (feature depth x quality x brand trust)

Price ($/mo)
High ───────────────────────────────────────────
     │                          ● Premium Player
     │                 ● Good Value (TARGET ZONE)
     │  ● Overpriced
     │                              ● Enterprise
     │        ● YOUR PRODUCT (current)
     │  ● Bargain/Penetration
Low  ─┼─────────────────────────────────────────
     Low              Perceived Value            High

Positioning Archetypes:

Reference Price Effect:

The price customers have in their head before they see yours is the most powerful force in pricing. It is almost always the incumbent's price or the price of the closest substitute.

Anchoring Decision: If your product is genuinely 5x better than alternatives, do not price at 2x. You are anchoring to the old product's value delivery. Price at 3-4x and justify the premium with value quantification. Pricing at 2x leaves money on the table AND signals that your product is only incrementally better.

Framework 4: Package Architecture (Good/Better/Best)

Designing tiers and bundles that guide customers toward the tier you want them to buy. Package architecture is conversion engineering, not feature listing.

The Good/Better/Best Framework:

Feature Allocation Decision Table:

For each feature, answer these questions to determine tier placement:

Upgrade Trigger Design:

Package Naming Conventions:

Package Quality Scoring Rubric:

Common Package Architecture Failures:

Framework 5: Sensitivity Analysis & Revenue Modeling

How robust is this pricing? A pricing recommendation without stress-testing is a bet, not a strategy.

Price Elasticity Estimation:

Elasticity Estimation Methods (when you lack transaction data):

Revenue Modeling Framework:

Revenue = Price x Volume x Conversion Rate x (1 - Churn Rate)

Per-segment:
Revenue_segment = Price_segment x TAM_segment x Penetration_segment x Conv_segment x (1 - Churn_segment)

Total Revenue = Sum(Revenue_segment) for all segments

Scenario Analysis Table:

Break-Even Analysis:

Key Variables Sensitivity — the "What If We Are Wrong?" Test:

For each variable in the revenue model, test: "If this assumption is wrong by 20%, does the recommendation change?"

Decision rule: If 2+ variables being wrong by 20% changes the recommendation, the strategy is fragile. Widen the confidence band and recommend phased rollout with monitoring gates.

Framework 6: Revenue Impact Modeling (Price Changes)

What happens when you change prices on an existing product with existing customers. This framework is not needed for new product pricing — use Sensitivity Analysis instead.

Existing Customer Impact Decision Framework:

…(truncated)