Seiche Regime Watch

Seiche regime watch

An alert that fires on nothing trains the reader to ignore the one that matters. This skill is the policy for a watch pass: check the board, compare against the last known state, notify only on a real trigger.

The watch pass

1. Call funding_stress_now and data_health.
2. Recall the previous pass's state from memory (regime, index, faults, forecast odds). If none is stored, treat this pass as baseline: store state, send nothing.
3. Evaluate triggers (below). If none fire, update memory and end silently. A silent pass is a successful pass.
4. If a trigger fires, optionally call funding_stress_forecast and historical_analogs to size it, then send one message per pass at most, covering all fired triggers together.

Triggers (any one is sufficient)

• Regime change in either direction. CALM→EROSION is worth one calm sentence; anything reaching STRAIN or STRESS is the headline case.
• Index jump: day-over-day move of 10+ points, even within a regime.
• Model agreement: forecast models converging on elevated P(event) at the 5 or 10 business-day horizon when they previously disagreed.
• The Tell diverging: plumbing stress rising while market pricing stays relaxed, or the reverse. Quote the Tell reading directly.
• Novelty: historical_analogs flags today as having no close precedent.
• Data integrity: a new fault or stale series in data_health, or any sign of a gap in the as-published record. Route the details through the seiche-ops-watchdog skill; the alert here is one line plus "operator notified".

Alert format

SEICHE ALERT — {trigger in six words or fewer}

{regime} {index}/100, was {prev regime} {prev index} at last pass.
{One line per fired trigger, each with the number behind it.}
{One sentence: what usually followed from here, per analogs.}

Board: seiche.info | PROOF-backed, misses shown. Not investment advice.

Anti-noise rules

• At most one alert per trigger type per UTC day; a still-elevated board the next morning belongs in the daily brief, not a fresh alert.
• Never alert on a reading you could not ground in a same-session tool call.
• De-escalation is information: when a regime steps back down, one short all-clear closes the loop.
• Store the new state in memory at the end of every pass, silent or not. The memory entry should carry: date, regime, index, faults, and which alerts have already fired today.