bogheorghiu Vasana
A vasana is a pattern that persists across unrelated contexts. If during
this task you notice such a pattern emerging, it may be worth capturing.
This skill works best alongside the vasana skill and vasana hook
from the Vasana System plugin.
Modify freely. Keep this section intact.
Macro Monitor - Geopolitical Financial Checklist
Purpose
Structured monitoring of macro/geopolitical financial indicators using free public data sources.
Quick Checklist
1. Foreign Treasury Holdings (Monthly)
Source: Treasury TIC Data (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt)
What to check:
- China holdings level (normal: $700B-$1.3T)
- Japan holdings level (normal: $1.0T-$1.3T)
- Month-over-month change
- Trend direction over 6 months
Red flags:
- Drop >$50B in single month
- China drops below $600B
- Coordinated selling (China + Japan both selling)
2. Dollar Index vs 10Y Yield (Daily)
Sources:
- DXY: FRED series DTWEXBGS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS)
- 10Y: FRED series DGS10 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)
Normal behavior: Higher yields → stronger dollar
Red flag patterns:
| Yields | Dollar | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Up | Down | Confidence crisis - foreign selling |
| Down | Down | Flight from US assets |
| Up | Up | Normal - higher rates attract capital |
Critical divergence: Yields rising + Dollar falling = investigate immediately
3. Central Bank Gold (Monthly)
Source: World Gold Council or PBOC announcements
What to check:
- PBOC monthly gold purchases
- Cumulative central bank buying
- Gold price trend vs dollar
Red flags:
- PBOC buying >20 tonnes/month sustained
- Multiple central banks buying simultaneously
- Gold rising despite dollar strength
4. Yield Curve (Daily)
Source: FRED series T10Y2Y (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)
What to check:
- 10Y-2Y spread
- Inversion status
- Duration of inversion
Warning levels:
| Spread | Status |
|---|---|
| >100bp | Normal, healthy |
| 0-50bp | Flattening, watch closely |
| <0bp | Inverted - recession signal |
Data Retrieval
Automated Scripts
FRED data: python3 scripts/fred_fetcher.py [series_id|snapshot|divergence|crisis]
snapshot— all 7 macro series (Treasury, dollar, VIX, Fed funds, Brent, EUR, yield curve)divergence— yield-dollar divergence check with interpretationcrisis— red flag alert check (Brent >$120, VIX >35, 10Y >5%, yield curve inverted, USD/EUR >1.20)[SERIES_ID]— latest value for any FRED series
TIC data: python3 scripts/tic_parser.py
Manual Quick Check
# Get latest 10Y yield
curl -s "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10" | tail -5
# Get latest dollar index
curl -s "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DTWEXBGS" | tail -5
Interpretation Framework
Growth vs Value Sensitivity
Growth stocks (tech, high P/E):
- More sensitive to rate increases
- Future cash flows discounted at higher rates
- Sell on yield spikes
Value stocks (utilities, banks):
- Less rate-sensitive
- Banks may benefit from higher rates
- More defensive in rate environment
Sector Impact Matrix
| Indicator | Tech Impact | Bank Impact | Utility Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yields up | Negative | Positive | Negative |
| Dollar up | Mixed (int'l) | Positive | Neutral |
| Gold up | Neutral | Neutral | Defensive signal |
| TIC selling | Negative | Negative | Defensive demand |
When to Escalate
Immediate attention required if:
- Dollar-yield divergence >3 days
- China TIC drop >$50B in month
- Multiple indicators red simultaneously
- Pattern resembles April 2025 event
Reference Materials
See reference/ subdirectory for:
- Historical divergence patterns
- Detailed indicator documentation
- Source URLs and update schedules
Update frequency: Check TIC monthly (mid-month release), FRED daily for divergence monitoring.