bookforge-ai Disaster Risk Assessment
Produces a scored, prioritized risk register using a quantitative Probability × Impact matrix. Covers 7 disaster types across 3 themes (Environmental, Infrastructure Reliability, Security) with 18+ pre-seeded scenarios. Output drives response plan prioritization, incident response team scoping, and disaster recovery test selection.
When to Use
- Starting disaster planning for a new or existing system
- Preparing for a disaster recovery test or tabletop exercise
- Scoping an incident response team's charter and coverage
- Evaluating how a change in infrastructure (new datacenter, cloud migration) shifts risk exposure
- Conducting a per-site risk review for a multi-location organization
- Revisiting a prior assessment after a significant organizational or threat environment change
Prerequisite: Know your system's architecture and its key dependencies (networking, authentication, storage, third-party services). Risk ratings are only as good as the system inventory behind them.
Context & Input Gathering
Before scoring, establish three inputs:
1. System inventory with criticality classification
Classify every system the risk could affect into one of three tiers. This classification determines how much impact a given disaster actually has on operations.
| Tier | Label | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mission-essential | Absence causes total operational disruption. Organization cannot function. |
| 2 | Mission-important | Absence significantly degrades operations but does not halt them. |
| 3 | Nonessential | Absence has minimal operational impact. Tolerable downtime. |
Ask: which services, if offline for 24 hours, would be catastrophic (Tier 1), serious (Tier 2), or acceptable (Tier 3)?
2. Geographic and infrastructure context
Risk ratings are location-dependent. A site in Los Angeles warrants a higher earthquake probability than one in Hamburg. A site in the southeastern US warrants higher hurricane probability. A single-ISP facility warrants higher internet connectivity loss probability than one with redundant circuits. Collect:
- Physical datacenter location(s)
- Existing fault-tolerance controls (redundant power, redundant ISP, UPS, generators)
- Known historical incidents at this site or in this region
3. Scope boundary
Decide whether you are assessing at the organizational level (global) or per site. Large organizations should do both — a site that hosts only Tier 3 systems warrants a different response plan than one hosting Tier 1 systems.
Process
Step 1 — Start with the pre-seeded risk taxonomy
The matrix in Appendix A of Building Secure and Reliable Systems groups disaster scenarios into three themes. Use these as your starting point rather than an empty list. Pre-seeded scenarios prevent the common failure mode of omitting non-obvious risks (e.g., emerging zero-day vulnerabilities, insider intellectual property theft).
Environmental theme (natural events that affect physical infrastructure)
- Earthquake
- Flood
- Fire
- Hurricane / severe storm
Infrastructure Reliability theme (component and service failures)
- Power outage
- Loss of internet connectivity
- Authentication system down
- High system latency / infrastructure slowdown
Security theme (adversarial and vulnerability-driven events)
- System compromise (external attacker gaining unauthorized access)
- Insider theft of intellectual property
- Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) / denial-of-service (DoS) attack
- Misuse of system resources (e.g., cryptocurrency mining)
- Vandalism / website defacement
- Phishing attack
- Software security bug
- Hardware security bug
- Emerging serious vulnerability (e.g., Meltdown/Spectre, Heartbleed class)
Add organization-specific scenarios beyond this list. Examples: ransomware targeting backup systems, supply chain compromise of a build pipeline, regulatory action requiring emergency data deletion.
Step 2 — Score each scenario using the P×I scales
For each scenario, assign two values independently, then compute the ranking.
Probability of occurrence within a year (P)
| Value | Label |
|---|---|
| 0.0 | Almost never |
| 0.2 | Unlikely |
| 0.4 | Somewhat unlikely |
| 0.6 | Likely |
| 0.8 | Highly likely |
| 1.0 | Inevitable |
Score probability based on your specific location, historical data, and existing controls. A site with a generator and UPS reduces power outage probability; a site on a flood plain increases flood probability.
Impact to organization if risk occurs (I)
| Value | Label |
|---|---|
| 0.0 | Negligible |
| 0.2 | Minimal |
| 0.5 | Moderate |
| 0.8 | Severe |
| 1.0 | Critical |
Score impact relative to the Tier 1/2/3 systems affected. If a disaster only affects Tier 3 systems, impact is at most Moderate. If it takes down a Tier 1 system with no failover, impact is Severe or Critical.
Ranking = Probability × Impact
A power outage scored P=0.6, I=0.8 produces Ranking=0.48. A hurricane at P=0.2, I=1.0 produces Ranking=0.20. Sort the completed register from highest to lowest ranking.
Step 3 — Populate the risk register
Create one row per scenario. Minimum columns:
| Theme | Risk | Probability (P) | Impact (I) | Ranking (P×I) | Systems Impacted | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental | Earthquake | — | — | — | — | — |
| Environmental | Flood | — | — | — | — | — |
| Environmental | Fire | — | — | — | — | — |
| Environmental | Hurricane | — | — | — | — | — |
| Infrastructure Reliability | Power outage | — | — | — | — | — |
| Infrastructure Reliability | Loss of internet connectivity | — | — | — | — | — |
| Infrastructure Reliability | Authentication system down | — | — | — | — | — |
| Infrastructure Reliability | High system latency / infrastructure slowdown | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | System compromise | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Insider theft of intellectual property | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | DDoS/DoS attack | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Misuse of system resources | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Vandalism / website defacement | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Phishing attack | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Software security bug | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Hardware security bug | — | — | — | — | — |
| Security | Emerging serious vulnerability | — | — | — | — | — |
Fill in scores, sort by Ranking descending.
Step 4 — Review for outliers before finalizing
Sorting by ranking is a starting heuristic, not a final answer. Perform a manual outlier review:
- Low-probability, high-impact outliers: A scenario ranked 0.10 (P=0.1, I=1.0) may still demand a response plan because the consequence is catastrophic. Flag any scenario with I=1.0 regardless of ranking.
- Hidden dependencies: A seemingly low-impact risk may become critical if it disables a monitoring or logging system that other incident responses depend on.
- Correlated risks: An earthquake can simultaneously trigger power outage, connectivity loss, and fire. Assess whether scenarios cluster and whether the combined impact exceeds individual rankings.
- Expert review: Solicit review from someone outside the team who can identify risks with hidden factors or dependencies. Groupthink tends to underweight unfamiliar scenarios.
Step 5 — Document scope, assumptions, and review cadence
Record alongside the register:
- Date of assessment
- Location(s) assessed
- Existing controls assumed (e.g., "assumes redundant ISP, UPS, and diesel generator")
- Owner responsible for next review
- Planned review cadence (minimum: annually; recommended: after any major infrastructure change or post-incident)
Key Principles
Quantification counters groupthink. Intuitive risk assessment tends to weight salient scenarios (recent news events, memorable near-misses) over statistically more likely ones. A scored matrix forces explicit probability and impact estimates, making invisible assumptions visible and debatable.
Probability is infrastructure-dependent, not universal. A cloud-hosted system with multi-region failover has a different authentication system downtime probability than a single on-premises deployment. Score after accounting for existing controls — but also model what happens if a control fails.
Ratings must evolve with the system. Risk posture changes when the organization adds redundant internet circuits, migrates to a different cloud region, or discovers a new vulnerability class. Schedule reviews; do not treat the register as a one-time artifact.
Low probability does not mean no plan. Scenarios with I=0.8 or I=1.0 warrant response plans even if their ranking is low. The ranking guides where to invest preparation effort first, not which risks to ignore entirely.
Assess dependencies alongside primary systems. Key operational functions include their underlying dependencies — networking, authentication, application-layer components. A mission-essential service that depends on a Tier 3 authentication system effectively elevates that dependency to Tier 1 during an incident.
Multi-location organizations need per-site assessments. Global rankings mask site-specific exposure. A site in earthquake country has different environmental risk than headquarters. Run the matrix per site and aggregate.
Examples
Example: SaaS company, single US West Coast datacenter, no redundant power
| Theme | Risk | P | I | Ranking | Systems Impacted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Security | System compromise | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.60 | Auth service (T1), API (T1) |
| Infrastructure | Power outage | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.48 | All systems |
| Security | Software security bug | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.48 | API (T1) |
| Security | Phishing attack | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Email (T2), SSO (T1) |
| Infrastructure | Loss of internet connectivity | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.40 | All externally facing (T1) |
| Security | DDoS/DoS attack | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.32 | API (T1) |
| Environmental | Earthquake | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.32 | All systems |
| Security | Emerging serious vulnerability | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.20 | All systems |
| Environmental | Flood | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.10 | On-prem equipment (T2) |
Outlier flag: Emerging serious vulnerability ranks 0.20 but Impact=1.0. Flag for mandatory response plan despite low ranking. Earthquake and internet connectivity loss are correlated — their combined impact may be higher than either alone.
Example: Adjusting for existing controls
After adding a backup ISP: Loss of internet connectivity drops from P=0.4 to P=0.2, Ranking drops from 0.40 to 0.20. After adding UPS and generator: Power outage drops from P=0.6 to P=0.2, Ranking drops from 0.48 to 0.16. Re-run the matrix when controls change to confirm prioritization remains valid.
References
- Building Secure and Reliable Systems (Blank, Oprea et al., Google/O'Reilly, 2020)
- Chapter 16 "Disaster Planning" — pp. 363–382: disaster type taxonomy (pp. 364), disaster risk analysis methodology (pp. 366), system criticality classification (pp. 366), dynamic response strategy phases (pp. 365)
- Appendix A "A Disaster Risk Assessment Matrix" — pp. 499–500: Table A-1 with full probability scale, impact scale, pre-seeded scenario taxonomy, and Ranking = P×I formula
- Next steps after completing the register: incident response team setup (Chapter 16, pp. 367–375), response plan development (pp. 371–373), disaster recovery test planning (pp. 376–382)
License
This skill is licensed under CC-BY-SA-4.0. Source: BookForge — Building Secure And Reliable Systems by Unknown.
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