Forecast

Forecast

Project the financial forecast for "$ARGUMENTS". Build a driver-based model that translates planning assumptions into monthly revenue, expense, and cash flow projections.

Prerequisites

Read .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/02-plan.md. If this file does not exist, tell the user:

Phase 2 (Plan) has not been completed for "$ARGUMENTS". Run /finance:plan $ARGUMENTS first, or use --skip-checks to bypass.

If --skip-checks is present in $ARGUMENTS, skip this check and log to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/skip-log.md.

Process

1. Read context:

   • Read .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/01-assess.md for baseline data
   • Read .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/02-plan.md for assumptions and KPI targets

2. Build revenue forecast:

   • Model each revenue stream separately
   • Apply growth assumptions (new customers, churn, expansion, pricing changes)
   • Account for seasonality and ramp periods
   • Calculate monthly and annual totals
   • Reference financial-model-template.md for revenue model structure

3. Build expense forecast:

   • Project fixed costs (rent, salaries, subscriptions)
   • Project variable costs tied to revenue drivers
   • Include planned headcount additions and timing
   • Account for one-time costs (equipment, setup, legal)

4. Build cash flow forecast:

   • Map revenue to cash collections (considering payment terms)
   • Map expenses to cash payments
   • Include capital expenditures and financing
   • Calculate monthly net cash flow and ending balance
   • Determine runway and break-even timing

5. Validate against KPIs:

   • Check if the forecast achieves the KPI targets from the plan
   • Identify gaps and what would need to change
   • Note dependencies and risks

6. Write the artifact to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/03-forecast.md with sections:

   • Revenue Forecast — monthly projections by stream
   • Expense Forecast — monthly projections by category
   • Cash Flow Forecast — monthly cash in, cash out, net, balance
   • Key Metrics Over Time — MRR, gross margin, burn rate, runway
   • KPI Achievement — projected vs target values
   • Forecast Risks — key sensitivities and downside scenarios

Output

The forecast written to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/03-forecast.md. Present a summary highlighting:

• Revenue trajectory and growth rate
• Burn rate and runway
• Whether KPI targets are achievable
• Top forecast risks