Scenario

Scenario

Model financial scenarios for "$ARGUMENTS". Build structured best/base/worst-case projections to understand the range of possible outcomes and prepare contingency plans.

Prerequisites

None — utility skill, run anytime. Works best when financial data exists in .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/.

Process

1. Gather context:

   • If prior phase artifacts exist, read them for baseline data
   • Ask the user what decision or question the scenarios should inform
   • Determine the time horizon for the scenarios

2. Define scenario parameters:

   • Identify the 5-8 key variables that drive outcomes (revenue growth, churn, ARPU, hiring pace, etc.)
   • For each variable, define best/base/worst values with rationale
   • Reference financial-model-template.md for scenario table structure

3. Build three scenarios:

   • Best case: optimistic but plausible assumptions
   • Base case: most likely outcome based on current trajectory
   • Worst case: pessimistic but survivable assumptions
   • For each: project revenue, expenses, cash flow, and runway

4. Analyze implications:

   • What decisions change between scenarios?
   • At what point does the worst case become dangerous?
   • What early warning signals distinguish which scenario is unfolding?
   • What contingency actions should be prepared?

5. Write the artifact to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/scenario.md with sections:

   • Scenario Question — what decision this analysis informs
   • Variable Assumptions — table of inputs per scenario
   • Scenario Projections — financial outcomes per scenario
   • Decision Triggers — signals that indicate which scenario is playing out
   • Contingency Plans — actions to take in each scenario

Output

The scenario analysis written to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/scenario.md. Present a summary highlighting:

• Range of outcomes (worst to best)
• Key differentiating variables
• Decision triggers and contingency plans