Theory & Prediction Development (car-theory-development)
When to trigger
- Predictions are descriptive ("X is associated with Y") with no mechanism
- An analytical paper has equations but no clear economic intuition
- An experiment lacks a theory that pins down the predicted direction and the process
- A reviewer says "this is atheoretical" or "the predictions don't follow from the framework"
CAR develops theory differently by tradition
Because CAR is method-agnostic, "theory development" means different things across its traditions, and a reader should never be able to swap in a generic management-theory template:
- Archival / capital-markets. Ground predictions in economics-based frameworks (information asymmetry and disclosure, agency and contracting, market efficiency and the properties of accounting numbers). Derive directional, falsifiable predictions and, critically, predict cross-sectional variation — the moderators that make the effect stronger or weaker are where the theoretical content lives. State the maintained assumptions linking the accounting construct to the market outcome.
- Experimental. Specify the psychological/economic process (e.g., motivated reasoning, mental accounting, ambiguity, incentives) that produces the effect, then design predictions that isolate that process — including a predicted mediator and the conditions under which the effect reverses or vanishes. Theory must justify the manipulation, not just the dependent variable.
- Analytical / modeling. The model is the theory. State the setting, players, information structure, timing, and equilibrium concept; derive results as propositions with proofs; and translate each comparative static into an empirical or institutional implication. The contribution is the economic insight, not the algebra.
- Field / qualitative. Build theory inductively from the data; make the abductive logic from observations to constructs explicit and traceable.
Predictions and hypotheses
- Write each prediction so the data could falsify it; state sign and, where possible, relative magnitude.
- For mediation/process claims, theorize the mechanism before testing it.
- Distinguish the maintained assumptions (untested) from the tested predictions.
Checklist
Anti-patterns
- Association dressed as theory: "we expect X relates to Y" with no why.
- Algebra without intuition (analytical) or DV-only theory (experimental) that ignores the process.
- Borrowed-template theory that ignores accounting's information/contracting context.
Operating pass for Contemporary Accounting Research
Use this as a second-pass capability check. First lock the accounting construct, setting, identification or theory, and disclosure/market/organizational implication; then test whether the manuscript addresses accounting reviewers who expect accounting-specific constructs, credible design, and contribution to reporting, auditing, tax, or governance debates.
- Primary move: Return a claim-evidence-risk ledger; every recommendation must point to a manuscript location or missing artifact.
- Decision ledger: return
claim / evidence / blocker / next edit rows so the next pass can patch the manuscript directly.
- Neighbor test: compare against The Accounting Review for US flagship breadth, JAR for Chicago-style accounting research, JAE for economics/accounting interface; if the neighboring outlet has the stronger audience claim, recommend re-routing before polishing.
- Verification floor: before submission-ready advice, re-open
resources/official-source-map.md for volatile rules and name the one unresolved fact that could change the recommendation.
Output format
【Tradition】archival / experimental / analytical / qualitative
【Mechanism】the economic/behavioral logic ...
【Predictions/Hypotheses】H1..Hn, signs, conditional/cross-sectional ...
【Assumptions】maintained vs. tested (or model primitives) ...
【Process】predicted mediator / equilibrium intuition ...
【Next step】car-literature-positioning or car-methods
1---2name: car-theory-development3description: Use when building the conceptual engine of a Contemporary Accounting Research (CAR) manuscript — the economic or behavioral mechanism, predictions/hypotheses, or the formal model — adapted to whether the paper is archival, experimental, analytical, or qualitative. Builds the argument; it does not run estimation (car-data-analysis) or frame the contribution (car-contribution-framing).4---56# Theory & Prediction Development (car-theory-development)78## When to trigger910- Predictions are descriptive ("X is associated with Y") with no mechanism11- An analytical paper has equations but no clear economic intuition12- An experiment lacks a theory that pins down the predicted direction and the process13- A reviewer says "this is atheoretical" or "the predictions don't follow from the framework"1415## CAR develops theory differently by tradition1617Because CAR is method-agnostic, "theory development" means different things across its traditions, and a reader should never be able to swap in a generic management-theory template:1819- **Archival / capital-markets.** Ground predictions in economics-based frameworks (information asymmetry and disclosure, agency and contracting, market efficiency and the properties of accounting numbers). Derive *directional, falsifiable* predictions and, critically, predict **cross-sectional variation** — the moderators that make the effect stronger or weaker are where the theoretical content lives. State the maintained assumptions linking the accounting construct to the market outcome.20- **Experimental.** Specify the **psychological/economic process** (e.g., motivated reasoning, mental accounting, ambiguity, incentives) that produces the effect, then design predictions that *isolate* that process — including a predicted mediator and the conditions under which the effect reverses or vanishes. Theory must justify the manipulation, not just the dependent variable.21- **Analytical / modeling.** The model *is* the theory. State the setting, players, information structure, timing, and equilibrium concept; derive results as propositions with proofs; and translate each comparative static into an **empirical or institutional implication**. The contribution is the economic insight, not the algebra.22- **Field / qualitative.** Build theory inductively from the data; make the abductive logic from observations to constructs explicit and traceable.2324## Predictions and hypotheses2526- Write each prediction so the data could falsify it; state sign and, where possible, relative magnitude.27- For mediation/process claims, theorize the mechanism *before* testing it.28- Distinguish the maintained assumptions (untested) from the tested predictions.2930## Checklist3132- [ ] The mechanism is named and its logic is explicit, not assumed33- [ ] Predictions are directional and falsifiable; cross-sectional/conditional predictions stated34- [ ] (Analytical) assumptions, equilibrium concept, and the intuition behind each result are stated35- [ ] (Experimental) the predicted process/mediator and reversal conditions are specified36- [ ] Predictions map cleanly to constructs the chosen method can measure or manipulate3738## Anti-patterns3940- **Association dressed as theory**: "we expect X relates to Y" with no why.41- **Algebra without intuition** (analytical) or **DV-only theory** (experimental) that ignores the process.42- **Borrowed-template theory** that ignores accounting's information/contracting context.434445## Operating pass for Contemporary Accounting Research4647Use this as a second-pass capability check. First lock the accounting construct, setting, identification or theory, and disclosure/market/organizational implication; then test whether the manuscript addresses accounting reviewers who expect accounting-specific constructs, credible design, and contribution to reporting, auditing, tax, or governance debates.4849- **Primary move:** Return a claim-evidence-risk ledger; every recommendation must point to a manuscript location or missing artifact.50- **Decision ledger:** return `claim / evidence / blocker / next edit` rows so the next pass can patch the manuscript directly.51- **Neighbor test:** compare against The Accounting Review for US flagship breadth, JAR for Chicago-style accounting research, JAE for economics/accounting interface; if the neighboring outlet has the stronger audience claim, recommend re-routing before polishing.52- **Verification floor:** before submission-ready advice, re-open `resources/official-source-map.md` for volatile rules and name the one unresolved fact that could change the recommendation.5354## Output format5556```57【Tradition】archival / experimental / analytical / qualitative58【Mechanism】the economic/behavioral logic ...59【Predictions/Hypotheses】H1..Hn, signs, conditional/cross-sectional ...60【Assumptions】maintained vs. tested (or model primitives) ...61【Process】predicted mediator / equilibrium intuition ...62【Next step】car-literature-positioning or car-methods63```
brycewang-stanford