Fiscal Briefing

Only stop to ask the user when: the country is ambiguous or a non-standard fiscal indicator is requested. Never stop to ask about: data sources (use official sources), section selection, fiscal rule definitions, or output filename.

Before starting, run this silently. If it outputs UPDATE_AVAILABLE, tell the user: "A new version of econstack is available. Run cd ~/.claude/skills/econstack && git pull to update." Then continue with the skill normally.

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-update-check 2>/dev/null || true

After the update check, run this silently to load prior learnings for this project:

eval "$(~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-slug)"
~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-read --limit 3 2>/dev/null || true

If learnings are found, apply them. When a prior learning influences a decision, note: "Prior learning applied: [key]".

Capturing new learnings: After completing this skill, log new insights via:

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-log '{"skill":"...","type":"...","key":"...","insight":"...","confidence":N,"source":"observed|user-stated|inferred"}'

Types: framework (preferred appraisal framework), parameter (custom overrides), data-source (preferred data), output (past report references), operational (tool/env quirks), preference (formatting/style). Confidence: 9-10 observed/stated, 6-8 strong inference, 4-5 weak. User-stated never decays; observed/inferred lose 1 point per 30 days. All data stored locally. Nothing transmitted.

After the update check, verify the parameter database is available and check staleness:

PARAMS_DIR="$HOME/econstack-data/parameters"
if [ -d "$PARAMS_DIR" ]; then
  PARAM_COUNT=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  echo "PARAMS: $PARAM_COUNT files loaded from $PARAMS_DIR"

  # Check for stale files (last_verified > 2 years ago)
  STALE=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" -mtime +730 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  if [ "$STALE" -gt 0 ]; then
    echo "PARAMS_WARNING: $STALE file(s) not updated in 2+ years. Run: cd ~/econstack-data && git pull"
  fi
else
  echo "PARAMS: not found. Using built-in defaults. For full parameter support: git clone https://github.com/charlescoverdale/econstack-data.git ~/econstack-data"
fi

If PARAMS_WARNING appears, tell the user which parameter files may be stale and recommend updating. Continue with the skill normally using whatever parameters are available.

Safety rules for this skill:

1. Parameter database is read-only. Never write to, modify, or delete files in ~/econstack-data/parameters/. These are shared, versioned parameters maintained separately. If a parameter needs updating, tell the user to update the econstack-data repo.

2. Confirm before overwriting. Before writing an output file, check if a file with the same name already exists. If it does, ask the user: "A file named [filename] already exists. Overwrite it, or save with a new name?" Do not silently overwrite.

At the end of every skill run, report one of these statuses:

• DONE: Analysis complete, output generated, all sections finished.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS: Output generated but with caveats (e.g., data gaps, assumptions that need review, sections below expected depth).
• BLOCKED: Cannot proceed (e.g., missing critical input, parameter database unavailable, framework not supported).
• NEEDS_CONTEXT: Need more information from the user before continuing.

Format: STATUS: [status] | [one-line reason]

/fiscal-briefing: Public Finances Briefing

Produces a compact public finances briefing for the UK, US, or Australia. Covers the current deficit or surplus, debt position, receipts by tax, spending by category, and fiscal rules or sustainability context. Every number is traceable to an official source with a vintage date.

Optionally adds a full Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) via the debtkit R package with --dsa.

Arguments

/fiscal-briefing [country or topic] [options]

Example:

/fiscal-briefing --country uk --format pdf

Options:

• --country <code> : uk (default), us, or au. Auto-detected if not set.
• --focus <topic> : Narrow to a theme. Options: deficit, debt, receipts, spending, rules, outlook.
• --dsa : Add a Debt Sustainability Analysis section (Bohn test, fan charts, stress tests) via the debtkit R package.
• --section <name> : Emit only one sub-component. Options: full (default), headline, deficit, debt, receipts, spending, rules, outlook, dsa. Combinable with commas.
• --format <type> : Output format(s). markdown (default, always generated), xlsx, word, pptx, pdf, or all.
• --client "Name" : Add "Prepared for" metadata.

Supported countries

Auto-detection rules:

• "UK", "Britain", "HMT", "OBR", "PSNB", "gilt" → uk
• "US", "Federal", "CBO", "Treasury yield", "deficit" (no qualifier) → us
• "Australia", "AUD", "UCB", "PBO", "Treasury Budget" → au
• Default → uk

Instructions

Step 1: Detect country and focus

If --country is not set, detect from context. Default to uk. If --focus is set, narrow the briefing to the relevant sections only.

Step 2: Fetch data (silent)

Pull the core fiscal indicators from official sources for the detected country. Note any staleness in the Data sources footer.

UK (ONS, HMRC, HMT, OBR):

• Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) latest month and YTD (ONS J5II)
• Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) % of GDP (ONS HF6X)
• Public Sector Current Budget (PSCB)
• Receipts by tax: income tax, NICs, VAT, corporation tax, fuel duty (HMRC)
• Spending by category: DEL vs AME, by department (HMT Public Sector Finances)
• OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook: latest forecast, fiscal rules assessment
• Fiscal rules: debt rule, current budget rule, welfare cap

US (BEA, Treasury, OMB, CBO):

• Federal deficit level and % GDP (Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, CBO)
• Federal debt held by the public and gross federal debt
• Receipts by source: individual income tax, payroll tax, corporate, excise
• Outlays by function: Social Security, Medicare, defence, net interest
• CBO Baseline Budget Outlook: latest projections
• Statutory debt ceiling status if relevant

Australia (ABS, Treasury, PBO):

• Underlying Cash Balance (UCB) and % GDP (Treasury Budget Papers)
• Australian Government general government net debt and gross debt
• Tax receipts by type: individual income, company, GST, excise, PRRT
• Payments by function: social security, health, education, defence
• Intergenerational Report projections (latest)
• Medium-term fiscal strategy

Silent fetching. Cite sources in a References footer at the end of the briefing.

Step 3: Build the briefing (silent)

Structure by country using the standard fiscal reporting order:

1. Headline and current position: this year's deficit, debt level, % of GDP, vs prior year and vs forecast.
2. Tax receipts: breakdown by main tax, YoY change, surprises vs forecast.
3. Public expenditure: breakdown by category or function, YoY change, notable pressures.
4. Fiscal rules: which rules are binding, status (met / breached / at risk), headroom.
5. Outlook: the latest forecast body projections (OBR, CBO, PBO) for the medium term.
6. Risks: three bullet points: upside, downside, key fiscal events to watch.

Step 4: Debt sustainability analysis (optional, if --dsa)

If --dsa is set, invoke the debtkit R package to produce:

• Debt-to-GDP projection fan chart over 10 years
• Bohn fiscal reaction test (is the primary balance responding to debt?)
• IMF-style stress tests (growth shock, rate shock, exchange rate shock, combined)
• European Commission S1 and S2 sustainability gap indicators

Note if debtkit is not installed: "Install debtkit from GitHub to enable DSA: devtools::install_github('charlescoverdale/debtkit')."

Step 5: Write the output

Save fiscal-[country]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md with this structure.

<!-- KEY NUMBERS
type: fiscal-briefing
country: [uk|us|au]
vintage: [latest data date]
deficit_pct_gdp: [value]
debt_pct_gdp: [value]
fiscal_rule_status: [met|at risk|breached]
dsa_run: [true|false]
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
-->

# Fiscal Briefing: [Country]

**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD] · **Data vintage**: [latest release]
**Headline**: [One-line summary: e.g. "UK deficit running above forecast, debt rule at risk of being breached in FY26-27."]

## Headline position

| Indicator | Latest | Prior | % of GDP | Vs forecast |
|-----------|-------:|------:|---------:|:------:|
| Deficit / surplus | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Gross debt | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Net debt | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Debt interest | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Primary balance | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |

## Tax receipts

[Two paragraphs: main tax contributions, YoY change, surprises vs forecast. Include one small table.]

| Tax | Latest (YTD) | Prior year | Change | Notes |
|-----|-------------:|-----------:|:------:|-------|
| [Main tax 1] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Main tax 2] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Main tax 3] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| **Total receipts** | **[val]** | **[val]** | [↑/↓] | |

## Public expenditure

[Two paragraphs: main spending lines, YoY change, budgetary pressures. Include one small table.]

| Category | Latest (YTD) | Prior year | Change | Notes |
|----------|-------------:|-----------:|:------:|-------|
| [Category 1] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Category 2] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Category 3] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| **Total spending** | **[val]** | **[val]** | [↑/↓] | |

## Fiscal rules

| Rule | Threshold | Current | Status | Headroom |
|------|-----------|--------:|:------:|---------:|
| [Rule 1] | [threshold] | [val] | [Met / At risk / Breached] | [val] |
| [Rule 2] | [threshold] | [val] | [Met / At risk / Breached] | [val] |

[One paragraph: which rule is binding, the political consequences of breach, whether the government has signalled policy changes.]

## Outlook

[Two paragraphs: latest forecast body projections for deficit and debt over the medium term. Cite the forecast body directly (OBR, CBO, PBO).]

## Risks

- **Upside**: [one bullet on potential improvements]
- **Downside**: [one bullet on potential deteriorations]
- **Key events**: [next fiscal event to watch: Budget, Autumn Statement, MYEFO, CBO update, etc.]

## Debt sustainability analysis (if --dsa)

[Bohn test result, IMF stress test outcomes, debt fan chart interpretation. One paragraph each. Refer the reader to the full debtkit output file for details.]

## Data sources

[One-line references with vintages.]

Sub-component selection (via --section): emit only the requested parts. Always include the header block and Headline position table.

• full (default): the whole structure above.
• headline: headline position table only.
• deficit / debt / receipts / spending / rules / outlook / dsa: that single section only.
• Combinable: --section headline,rules,outlook.

Format-specific output structure (only produce when explicitly requested; see dispatcher below):

• Markdown (.md): fiscal-[country]-[date].md with the structure shown above.
• Excel (.xlsx): workbook with sheets per dimension (Headline, Receipts, Spending, Rules, Outlook, optional DSA). Historical context back 10 years.
• Word (.docx): one document, full briefing, cover page, TOC.
• PowerPoint (.pptx): 5 slides: (1) Headline, (2) Receipts, (3) Spending, (4) Rules and outlook, (5) Risks.
• PDF: render markdown through econstack Quarto template.

Output formats

The user requests format(s) via --format. Default: md. Comma-separated lists are allowed (e.g. --format md,pdf); all expands to every supported format.

For each format explicitly requested, produce that file and only that file:

• md: write the markdown inline (only when md is in the requested set).
• docx: invoke the docx skill with the rendered content.
• pdf: render via the econstack Quarto template (or invoke the pdf skill if no template exists for this skill).
• xlsx: invoke the xlsx skill with the structured tables.
• pptx: invoke the pptx skill with the briefing as a deck.

Do NOT produce formats that were not requested. This is the v0.4 fix for the multi-format leak that previously caused --format pdf to also write .md and .docx files alongside the PDF. Any intermediate files needed during rendering must go to a temp directory and be cleaned up before the skill returns.

When you finish, the file listing in your "Saved:" message must contain exactly the files the user asked for, no extras.

Tell the user (listing only files produced):

Fiscal briefing complete. [Country]. Deficit [val]% of GDP, debt [val]% of GDP. Fiscal rule: [status].

Saved:
  [only the files actually produced for the requested format(s)]

Citation discipline

Every numerical claim in the briefing must be followed by an inline citation in the form [SOURCE_CODE, vintage]. SOURCE_CODE is a short tag (e.g. ONS_PSF, OBR_EFO, BoE_MPR, HMRC_PB, Treasury_MTS, CBO_BBO, ABS_GFS) that maps to a full reference in the Data sources footer. vintage is the publication date of the source data (e.g. Mar 2026).

Examples:

Public sector net debt reached 95.8% of GDP in February 2026 [ONS_PSF, Feb 2026].

The OBR forecasts borrowing falling to 1.6% of GDP by 2028-29 [OBR_EFO, Mar 2026].

CBO projects the federal deficit at USD 1.7 trillion in FY2025 [CBO_BBO, Jan 2025].

Numbers that cannot be sourced to a primary publication must NOT appear in the briefing. No exceptions: do not estimate, infer from training data, interpolate, or recall from memory. If a needed number isn't in the fetched data, state it explicitly:

[Source] has not yet published this measure. Headroom for FY26-27 will be available after the Spring Statement on [date].

Self-check before output: scan the draft for every number. If any number lacks an inline citation, either add the citation or remove the number. Do not ship a briefing where the citation density is uneven across sections.

Factuality rules

A wrong claim that has a citation is still wrong. Before asserting any factual claim about how a fiscal rule, definition, or formula works, consult the fact pack at fiscal-briefing/facts/ (one markdown file per topic). Topics covered: triple lock, fiscal mandate, debt definitions, benefit uprating, ONS classification thresholds.

Things you must NOT assert without computing them from the latest data:

• "The 2.5% floor is the binding arm of the triple lock" (which arm binds varies year to year; compute it from current September CPI and July earnings growth).
• "The fiscal mandate is binding" (depends on current OBR forecasts, not memory).
• "The welfare cap has been breached" (depends on the most recent Charter assessment).
• Any "headroom" figure (changes at every fiscal event; pull from current EFO output).

If the fact pack and current data disagree, trust the current data and note the discrepancy in the Risks section so the user can sanity-check.

Fact pack structure: each topic is a small markdown file in fiscal-briefing/facts/ with the canonical definition, the rule for which-arm-binds (where applicable), and dated wording. Read the relevant fact file before drafting any section that touches that topic.

Out of scope (unless explicitly requested)

The following are NOT produced unless the user explicitly asks for them via flags or natural language:

• Alternative policy options. Don't suggest "the government could change X by doing Y". That is a human task with bias and political-judgement risks. Only emit policy options if the user passes --policies "X, Y, Z" (a comma-separated list of policies they want analysed).
• Recommendations or decisions. State what the data shows; do not recommend what the Chancellor / Treasury Secretary / Treasurer should do.
• Forecasts beyond the publication horizon. Use the official forecast body's projections (OBR / CBO / PBO). Do not extrapolate further.
• Scenarios that aren't in the source. No "what if growth is 0.5pp lower" unless the user requests it via --dsa (which produces standardised IMF stress tests via debtkit).
• Party-political or politician rankings. Stay above politics.

If the user's request requires content from this list, ask first.

Important rules

• Official sources only. ONS / HMRC / HMT / OBR for UK, BEA / Treasury / CBO / OMB for US, ABS / Treasury / PBO for AU. No third-party aggregators unless official data is unavailable.
• Every number has a vintage AND an inline citation. See Citation discipline above. The Data sources footer is for the full reference list.
• Forecasts come from the official forecast body (OBR, CBO, PBO). Do not generate new forecasts here.
• One headline summary at the top, backed by the Headline position table.
• Fiscal rule status is explicit (Met, At risk, Breached) with headroom. Compute headroom from current EFO data; do not recall it.
• DSA is optional and requires debtkit. Note the install command if it is missing.
• Em dashes: never use em dashes. Use commas, colons, parentheses, or "and".

Integration with other skills

• /macro-briefing is the broader macro companion. /fiscal-briefing is the deep-dive on public finances specifically.
• /econ-audit can audit this skill's output for source vintages and consistency.