Market Research

Only stop to ask the user when: the sector or geography is undefined, or a non-standard analysis focus is requested. Never stop to ask about: data source selection (use the source hierarchy), section ordering, Porter / PESTLE structure, or output filename.

Before starting, run this silently. If it outputs UPDATE_AVAILABLE, tell the user: "A new version of econstack is available. Run cd ~/.claude/skills/econstack && git pull to update." Then continue with the skill normally.

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-update-check 2>/dev/null || true

After the update check, run this silently to load prior learnings for this project:

eval "$(~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-slug)"
~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-read --limit 3 2>/dev/null || true

If learnings are found, apply them. When a prior learning influences a decision, note: "Prior learning applied: [key]".

Capturing new learnings: After completing this skill, log new insights via:

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-log '{"skill":"...","type":"...","key":"...","insight":"...","confidence":N,"source":"observed|user-stated|inferred"}'

Types: framework (preferred appraisal framework), parameter (custom overrides), data-source (preferred data), output (past report references), operational (tool/env quirks), preference (formatting/style). Confidence: 9-10 observed/stated, 6-8 strong inference, 4-5 weak. User-stated never decays; observed/inferred lose 1 point per 30 days. All data stored locally. Nothing transmitted.

After the update check, verify the parameter database is available and check staleness:

PARAMS_DIR="$HOME/econstack-data/parameters"
if [ -d "$PARAMS_DIR" ]; then
  PARAM_COUNT=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  echo "PARAMS: $PARAM_COUNT files loaded from $PARAMS_DIR"

  # Check for stale files (last_verified > 2 years ago)
  STALE=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" -mtime +730 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  if [ "$STALE" -gt 0 ]; then
    echo "PARAMS_WARNING: $STALE file(s) not updated in 2+ years. Run: cd ~/econstack-data && git pull"
  fi
else
  echo "PARAMS: not found. Using built-in defaults. For full parameter support: git clone https://github.com/charlescoverdale/econstack-data.git ~/econstack-data"
fi

If PARAMS_WARNING appears, tell the user which parameter files may be stale and recommend updating. Continue with the skill normally using whatever parameters are available.

Safety rules for this skill:

1. Parameter database is read-only. Never write to, modify, or delete files in ~/econstack-data/parameters/. These are shared, versioned parameters maintained separately. If a parameter needs updating, tell the user to update the econstack-data repo.

2. Confirm before overwriting. Before writing an output file, check if a file with the same name already exists. If it does, ask the user: "A file named [filename] already exists. Overwrite it, or save with a new name?" Do not silently overwrite.

At the end of every skill run, report one of these statuses:

• DONE: Analysis complete, output generated, all sections finished.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS: Output generated but with caveats (e.g., data gaps, assumptions that need review, sections below expected depth).
• BLOCKED: Cannot proceed (e.g., missing critical input, parameter database unavailable, framework not supported).
• NEEDS_CONTEXT: Need more information from the user before continuing.

Format: STATUS: [status] | [one-line reason]

/market-research: Industry and Market Analysis

Produces a structured, source-cited market research report for any industry or product. First-time users get a complete analysis from one invocation covering market sizing, key players, concentration, Porter's Five Forces, PESTLE macro-environment, regulatory environment, supply chains, and outlook. Every data point is cited.

Arguments

/market-research [sector or product] [options]

Examples:

/market-research "UK grocery retail"
/market-research "semiconductors" --geo global
/market-research "residential mortgages" --geo uk,us
/market-research "UK childcare" --focus regulation
/market-research "EV batteries" --depth quick --format pptx

Options:

• --geo <code(s)> : uk (default), us, eu, au, or global. Multi-geography via commas: --geo uk,us.
• --depth <level> : quick (one-page briefing), standard (default, full report), deep (extended with primary research pointers).
• --focus <topic> : Narrow to a theme. Options: sizing, competition, regulation, supply-chain, pricing, outlook. Reduces the report to the relevant sections.
• --section <name> : Emit only one sub-component. Options: full (default), summary, sizing, players, concentration, porter, pestle, regulation, supply, trade, pricing, outlook. Combinable with commas.
• --format <type> : Output format(s). markdown (default, always generated), xlsx, word, pptx, pdf, or all.
• --client "Name" : Add "Prepared for" metadata. Also shapes writing register.

Supported geographies

Multi-geography via commas: --geo uk,us,eu. Each geography is reported side by side in the main tables.

Instructions

Step 1: Detect sector, geography, and focus

If the user argument does not specify a sector, ask once. Detect geography from context ("UK grocery" → uk). Default to uk and standard depth if unclear.

Parse --focus if set to narrow the scope.

Step 2: Source hierarchy

When gathering data, prefer sources in this order:

1. Official statistics: ONS, BLS, Eurostat, ABS (for sizing, employment, GVA)
2. Regulatory filings: CMA, FTC, EC DG COMP, ACCC (for competition structure, M&A history)
3. Trade data: HMRC, UN Comtrade, Comext, DFAT (for imports and exports)
4. Industry codes: SIC (UK), NAICS (US), NACE (EU), ANZSIC (AU) for precise scoping
5. Company filings: Annual reports, 10-Ks, competition merger notifications (for player-level data)
6. Trade associations: sector-specific reports (with caveats on methodology)
7. News and trade press: recent M&A, pricing moves, regulatory announcements

Do NOT use unverifiable blog posts, low-credibility aggregators, or AI-generated summaries.

Step 3: Build the report (silent)

Walk through the standard sections internally. Do not narrate.

1. Executive summary: one paragraph, the three things the decision-maker needs.
2. Market sizing: total addressable market, served market, growth rate, historical 5-year context.
3. Segmentation: 3-5 key segments with size shares.
4. Key players: top 5-10 with market share, recent strategic moves.
5. Concentration: HHI and CR4 from public data. Note if data is incomplete.
6. Porter's Five Forces: one paragraph per force with a qualitative rating (Low / Moderate / High threat or rivalry).
7. PESTLE: one line per factor covering Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental.
8. Regulatory environment: main regulators, recent or upcoming regulatory changes.
9. Supply chain: upstream inputs, midstream transformation, downstream distribution, vulnerability points.
10. Trade flows: imports and exports, tariff position, trade balance in the sector.
11. Pricing and margins: price trends, margin profile, elasticity if known.
12. Outlook and scenarios: 3-year outlook, upside and downside scenarios.

Step 4: Write the output

Save market-[slug]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md with this structure.

<!-- KEY NUMBERS
type: market-research
sector: [sector]
geography: [geo]
depth: [depth]
market_size_m: [value]
growth_rate_pct: [value]
hhi: [value]
cr4: [value]
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
-->

# Market Research: [Sector] ([Geography])

**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD] · **Geography**: [geography] · **Depth**: [depth]

## Executive summary

[One paragraph, three takeaways. Written for the decision-maker the report is for. No filler.]

## Market sizing

[Two paragraphs: total addressable market, served market, growth rate, historical 5-year context. One small table.]

| Metric | Value | Source |
|--------|------:|--------|
| Total market size (latest year) | [currency][val] | [Source] |
| 5-year CAGR | [val]% | [Calculated from Source] |
| Forecast growth (3-year) | [val]% | [Forecast source] |

## Segmentation

Table: Market segments.

| Segment | Size ([currency]) | Share | Growth |
|---------|------------------:|------:|-------:|
| [Segment 1] | [val] | [val]% | [val]% |
| [Segment 2] | [val] | [val]% | [val]% |
| [Segment 3] | [val] | [val]% | [val]% |

## Key players

Table: Top players.

| Player | Market share | Strategic move |
|--------|-------------:|----------------|
| [Player 1] | [val]% | [Recent move, one line] |
| [Player 2] | [val]% | [Recent move, one line] |
| [Player 3] | [val]% | [Recent move, one line] |

## Market structure

| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|--------|------:|----------------|
| HHI | [val] | [Unconcentrated / Moderately concentrated / Highly concentrated] |
| CR4 | [val]% | [Competitive / Moderate / Concentrated] |
| Barriers to entry | [Low / Moderate / High] | [One line] |

## Porter's Five Forces

| Force | Rating | Key drivers |
|-------|:------:|-------------|
| Competitive rivalry | [L/M/H] | [one line] |
| Threat of new entrants | [L/M/H] | [one line] |
| Bargaining power of suppliers | [L/M/H] | [one line] |
| Bargaining power of buyers | [L/M/H] | [one line] |
| Threat of substitutes | [L/M/H] | [one line] |

**Overall attractiveness**: [Unattractive / Moderate / Attractive]. [One-line reason.]

## PESTLE

| Factor | Key point |
|--------|-----------|
| Political | [One line] |
| Economic | [One line] |
| Social | [One line] |
| Technological | [One line] |
| Legal | [One line] |
| Environmental | [One line] |

## Regulatory environment

[Two paragraphs: main regulators, upcoming changes, compliance burden.]

## Supply chain

[Two paragraphs: upstream inputs and their sourcing, midstream transformation, downstream distribution, points of vulnerability.]

## Trade flows

Table: Trade position.

| Flow | Value ([currency]) | Top partner | Tariff regime |
|------|-------------------:|-------------|---------------|
| Imports | [val] | [country] | [regime] |
| Exports | [val] | [country] | [regime] |
| **Net trade** | **[val]** | | |

## Pricing and margins

[One paragraph: price trends, margin profile, elasticity if known.]

## Outlook and scenarios

**Central**: [One paragraph, 3-year outlook.]

**Upside scenario**: [One-liner on what would make it better.]

**Downside scenario**: [One-liner on what would make it worse.]

## References

[List of all cited sources with URLs. Every data point in the report must map to one of these sources.]

Sub-component selection (via --section): emit only the requested parts. Always include the header block and Executive summary.

• full (default): the whole structure above.
• summary: executive summary only.
• sizing / players / concentration / porter / pestle / regulation / supply / trade / pricing / outlook: that single section only.
• Combinable: --section summary,porter,outlook.

Format-specific output structure (only produce formats explicitly requested; see dispatcher below):

• Markdown (.md): market-[slug]-[date].md with the structure shown above.
• Excel (.xlsx): workbook with sheets: Summary, Sizing, Players, Segments, Trade, Porter (one row per force), PESTLE.
• Word (.docx): one document, full report with cover page, hyperlinked sources.
• PowerPoint (.pptx): 7 slides: (1) Exec summary, (2) Market sizing, (3) Players and concentration, (4) Porter's Five Forces, (5) PESTLE and regulation, (6) Trade and supply chain, (7) Outlook. Action titles.
• PDF: render markdown through econstack Quarto template.

Output formats

The user requests format(s) via --format. Default: md. Comma-separated lists are allowed (e.g. --format md,pdf); all expands to every supported format.

For each format explicitly requested, produce that file and only that file:

• md: write the markdown inline (only when md is in the requested set).
• docx: invoke the docx skill with the rendered content.
• pdf: render via the econstack Quarto template (or invoke the pdf skill if no template exists for this skill).
• xlsx: invoke the xlsx skill with the structured tables.
• pptx: invoke the pptx skill with the briefing as a deck.

Do NOT produce formats that were not requested. This is the v0.4 fix for the multi-format leak that previously caused --format pdf to also write .md and .docx files alongside the PDF. Any intermediate files needed during rendering must go to a temp directory and be cleaned up before the skill returns.

When you finish, the file listing in your "Saved:" message must contain exactly the files the user asked for, no extras.

Tell the user (listing only files produced):

Market research complete. [Sector] ([Geography]). Market size [val], CAGR [val]%, HHI [val].

Saved:
  market-[slug]-[date].md
  [other formats if requested]

Citation discipline

Every numerical claim in the output must be followed by an inline citation in the form [SOURCE_CODE, vintage]. SOURCE_CODE is a short tag (e.g. ONS_PSF, OBR_EFO, BoE_MPR, Fed_FOMC, ECB_EB, RBA_SoMP, IMF_WEO, OECD_EO, Eurostat, BLS, BEA, FRED, ABS, Comtrade) matching an entry in the References footer. vintage is the publication date of the source data (e.g. Mar 2026, Q4 2025, Jan 2026).

Examples:

CPI was 3.4% YoY in March 2026 [ONS_CPI, Mar 2026].

The OBR forecasts borrowing falling to 1.6% of GDP by 2028-29 [OBR_EFO, Mar 2026].

Industry concentration is moderate: HHI is 1,820 across the top 8 firms [Companies_House, Q4 2025].

Numbers that cannot be sourced to a primary publication must NOT appear in the output. No exceptions: do not estimate, infer from training data, interpolate, or recall from memory. If a needed number isn't in fetched data, state it explicitly:

[Source] has not yet published this measure for [period].

Self-check before output: scan the draft for every number. If any number lacks an inline citation, either add the citation or remove the number. Citation density should be roughly even across sections; a section with no citations is a red flag that the section was generated rather than sourced.

Factuality

Before asserting any factual claim about an industry classification, concentration threshold, or framework definition, ground it in the canonical source. Common gotchas: HHI thresholds (US DOJ 2023 guidelines: <1,000 unconcentrated, 1,000-1,800 moderately concentrated, >1,800 highly concentrated; the older 1,500/2,500 thresholds are deprecated), industry classification systems (SIC, NAICS, ANZSIC, NACE differ; cite which one), Porter's Five Forces are forces NOT determinants (use the canonical names: rivalry, threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, supplier power, buyer power). Do not assert market sizes from training-data recall; pull from a primary publication.

Out of scope (unless explicitly requested)

The following are NOT produced unless the user explicitly asks for them via flags or natural language:

• Investment recommendations. Do not say "this is a good market to enter" or "investors should". State the structural facts; let the reader judge.
• M&A predictions. Do not name specific deals as "likely". Cite announced deals only.
• Stock recommendations. No buy/sell/hold language on listed companies.
• Litigation predictions. Do not forecast regulatory or antitrust outcomes.
• Forward private-firm valuations unless the user supplies them.

If the user's request requires content from this list, ask first.

Important rules

• Credibility is everything. Every data point is cited inline (see Citation discipline above). No unverifiable claims. Prefer official sources.
• Source hierarchy is strict. Official → regulatory → trade → industry codes → company filings → trade associations → news. Use the highest available.
• Porter ratings are qualitative with drivers. Do not assign a rating without naming the drivers.
• HHI and CR4 use public data. If data is incomplete, note it explicitly rather than inventing numbers.
• Multi-geography reports use side-by-side tables, not separate country sections.
• No AI-generated sources. Do not cite ChatGPT outputs, GPT summaries, or unverifiable aggregators as sources.
• Em dashes: never use em dashes. Use commas, colons, parentheses, or "and".

Integration with other skills

• /macro-briefing provides the macro context; this skill references it for PESTLE Economic.
• /econ-audit can audit this skill's output for source quality and HHI / CR4 calculation consistency.