Market Research
Make research that helps decisions, not research for show.
When to Use
- Researching a market, company, investor, or tech trend
- Building TAM/SAM/SOM numbers
- Comparing competitors
- Checking investor fit before outreach
- Testing a thesis before building
Process
1. Pick the Research Type
Figure out which kind of research the user needs:
- Investor / Fund Check
- Competitor Check
- Market Size
- Tech / Tool Research
2. Run Investor / Fund Check
Get:
- Fund size, stage, check size
- Portfolio companies that matter
- Public thesis and recent deals
- Why they fit or don't fit
- Red flags
3. Run Competitor Check
Get:
- What the product really does (not marketing fluff)
- Funding and investors
- Traction if public
- How they get users and what they charge
- Strengths, weaknesses, gaps
4. Run Market Size
Use:
- Top-down from reports
- Bottom-up from real customer numbers
- Show your math. Every guess should be clear.
5. Run Tech / Tool Research
Get:
- How it works
- Trade-offs and who's using it
- How hard to set up
- Lock-in, security, and risk
6. Write It Up
Structure every deliverable as:
- Quick summary (2-3 sentences)
- Key findings
- What this means
- Risks and caveats
- What to do next
- Sources
Rules
- Every big claim needs a source.
- Use recent data. Flag old data.
- Include the bad news too. Show risks.
- End with a decision, not just a summary.
- Keep facts, guesses, and suggestions separate.
- All numbers have sources or are marked as guesses.
- Old data is flagged.
- The suggestion follows from the facts.
- Someone can make a decision from this.
Gotchas
- Top-down TAM is lazy and always wrong. "10% of the $X billion market" is not analysis. Bottom-up from real customer numbers or go home.
- Analyst reports have built-in bias. Reports from vendors (like AWS sizing the cloud market) overstate their own segment. Use independent sources.
- Revenue proxies are unreliable. SimilarWeb traffic estimates can be off by 5x. Combine multiple signals: hiring, social, Crunchbase, app store rankings.
- Don't confuse market size with addressable market. The CRM market is $80B, but if you're building for freelancers, your market is a fraction of that.
- Recency matters. A market growing 40% in 2024 might be flat in 2026. Always check the latest data points, not just the headline number.
Output
Save to the project's 02-research/ folder.
Format each deliverable with: quick summary, key findings, what this means, risks and caveats, next steps, and sources.
1---2name: market-research3description: Run market research, competitive analysis, investor due diligence, and industry scans. Use when the user wants market sizing, competitor comparisons, fund research, or tech scans.4---56# Market Research78Make research that helps decisions, not research for show.910## When to Use1112- Researching a market, company, investor, or tech trend13- Building TAM/SAM/SOM numbers14- Comparing competitors15- Checking investor fit before outreach16- Testing a thesis before building1718## Process1920### 1. Pick the Research Type2122Figure out which kind of research the user needs:23- Investor / Fund Check24- Competitor Check25- Market Size26- Tech / Tool Research2728### 2. Run Investor / Fund Check2930Get:31- Fund size, stage, check size32- Portfolio companies that matter33- Public thesis and recent deals34- Why they fit or don't fit35- Red flags3637### 3. Run Competitor Check3839Get:40- What the product really does (not marketing fluff)41- Funding and investors42- Traction if public43- How they get users and what they charge44- Strengths, weaknesses, gaps4546### 4. Run Market Size4748Use:49- Top-down from reports50- Bottom-up from real customer numbers51- Show your math. Every guess should be clear.5253### 5. Run Tech / Tool Research5455Get:56- How it works57- Trade-offs and who's using it58- How hard to set up59- Lock-in, security, and risk6061### 6. Write It Up6263Structure every deliverable as:641. Quick summary (2-3 sentences)652. Key findings663. What this means674. Risks and caveats685. What to do next696. Sources7071## Rules7273- Every big claim needs a source.74- Use recent data. Flag old data.75- Include the bad news too. Show risks.76- End with a decision, not just a summary.77- Keep facts, guesses, and suggestions separate.78- All numbers have sources or are marked as guesses.79- Old data is flagged.80- The suggestion follows from the facts.81- Someone can make a decision from this.8283## Gotchas8485- **Top-down TAM is lazy and always wrong.** "10% of the $X billion market" is not analysis. Bottom-up from real customer numbers or go home.86- **Analyst reports have built-in bias.** Reports from vendors (like AWS sizing the cloud market) overstate their own segment. Use independent sources.87- **Revenue proxies are unreliable.** SimilarWeb traffic estimates can be off by 5x. Combine multiple signals: hiring, social, Crunchbase, app store rankings.88- **Don't confuse market size with addressable market.** The CRM market is $80B, but if you're building for freelancers, your market is a fraction of that.89- **Recency matters.** A market growing 40% in 2024 might be flat in 2026. Always check the latest data points, not just the headline number.9091## Output9293Save to the project's `02-research/` folder.9495Format each deliverable with: quick summary, key findings, what this means, risks and caveats, next steps, and sources.
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