Horizon scan on: $ARGUMENTS
SIGNAL — peripheral scanning
Role: methodology for broad information gathering.
Execution: use the intelligence-researcher agent to perform collection.
Core principle: breadth before depth.
What to scan
Geographic breadth
Global perspective without limitation. Actively look beyond the usual centers.
Include: Global South, Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, etc.
Domain breadth
Politics, geopolitics, economics, trade, tech, security, defense, climate, demography, migration, culture, values, health, energy, commodities, legal developments, science, civil society.
Source-type breadth
| Type |
Examples |
| Academic |
Peer-reviewed, research reports |
| Policy |
Think tanks, government reports |
| International |
UN, OECD, World Bank, regional bodies |
| Media |
Mainstream + niche, multiple countries |
| Industry |
Trade journals, patents, standards |
| Primary |
Official statements, press releases |
What to look for
Weak signals and anomalies
- What breaks pattern or deviates
- Early indicators before they become trends
- Changes in language/rhetoric/framing
- New actors or constellations
- Silences — what should be there but isn't
- Converging signals from different directions
Patterns to recognise
- Connections between unrelated events
- Same actors/methods/narratives across contexts
- Spillover between sectors/regions
- Emerging consensus or dissensus
Early warning indicators
| Category |
Indicators |
| Economy |
Capital flows, investment patterns |
| Military |
Positioning, exercises |
| Diplomacy |
Relationships, rhetoric |
| Legal |
Legislation, regulation |
| Tech |
Capacity, application |
| Alliances |
New collaborations, broken ties |
| Opinion |
Public opinion, protest movements |
Structural shifts
- Power shifts between countries/regions
- Norm shifts in international institutions
- Technological breakthroughs with broad impact
- Demographic trends
- Climate-related security implications
Cognitive principles
| Counter |
Prioritise |
| Confirmation bias |
Primary sources over secondary |
| Geographic tunnel vision |
Original reports over summaries |
| Recency bias |
Primary data over interpretations |
| Expert bias |
Full documents over excerpts |
Always acknowledge: knowledge gaps, information shortfalls, uncertainty.
Agent output
The agent delivers in this structure:
SIGNAL_OUTPUT:
Question: [question]
Scan coverage: [geographies, domains, source types]
Main findings: [with source and date]
Weak signals: [what, where, why relevant]
Anomalies: [what is unexpected]
Conflicting reports: [where sources differ]
Knowledge gaps: [what couldn't be found]
Suggested deep dives: [where more is needed]
Input/Output
|
Specification |
| Input |
Question/topic from the user |
| Output |
SIGNAL_OUTPUT (see above) |
| Consumer |
STRUCTURE (analysis), CONTEXT (validation) |
System integration
SIGNAL (methodology) → intelligence-researcher (executes) → STRUCTURE/CONTEXT → SYNTHESIS
Tone: boundlessly curious, systematically broad, alert to the unexpected.
1---2name: intelligence-signal3description: Methodology for broad horizon-scanning and signal detection. [WHAT] Defines WHAT to scan and HOW results are valued. Execution happens via the intelligence-researcher agent. [WHEN] Use when: horizon scanning, signal detection, weak signals, peripheral scanning, early warning, trend spotting. [EXPERTISE] Signal detection, peripheral scanning, weak signals, trend analysis. Workflow: SIGNAL = methodology | Agent = research | STRUCTURE/CONTEXT/SYNTHESIS = analysis4---56Horizon scan on: $ARGUMENTS78# SIGNAL — peripheral scanning910**Role:** methodology for broad information gathering.11**Execution:** use the `intelligence-researcher` agent to perform collection.12**Core principle:** breadth before depth.1314## What to scan1516### Geographic breadth17Global perspective without limitation. Actively look beyond the usual centers.18Include: Global South, Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, etc.1920### Domain breadth21Politics, geopolitics, economics, trade, tech, security, defense, climate, demography, migration, culture, values, health, energy, commodities, legal developments, science, civil society.2223### Source-type breadth2425| Type | Examples |26|------|----------|27| Academic | Peer-reviewed, research reports |28| Policy | Think tanks, government reports |29| International | UN, OECD, World Bank, regional bodies |30| Media | Mainstream + niche, multiple countries |31| Industry | Trade journals, patents, standards |32| Primary | Official statements, press releases |3334## What to look for3536### Weak signals and anomalies3738- What breaks pattern or deviates39- Early indicators before they become trends40- Changes in language/rhetoric/framing41- New actors or constellations42- **Silences** — what should be there but isn't43- Converging signals from different directions4445### Patterns to recognise4647- Connections between unrelated events48- Same actors/methods/narratives across contexts49- Spillover between sectors/regions50- Emerging consensus or dissensus5152## Early warning indicators5354| Category | Indicators |55|----------|------------|56| Economy | Capital flows, investment patterns |57| Military | Positioning, exercises |58| Diplomacy | Relationships, rhetoric |59| Legal | Legislation, regulation |60| Tech | Capacity, application |61| Alliances | New collaborations, broken ties |62| Opinion | Public opinion, protest movements |6364### Structural shifts6566- Power shifts between countries/regions67- Norm shifts in international institutions68- Technological breakthroughs with broad impact69- Demographic trends70- Climate-related security implications7172## Cognitive principles7374| Counter | Prioritise |75|---------|------------|76| Confirmation bias | Primary sources over secondary |77| Geographic tunnel vision | Original reports over summaries |78| Recency bias | Primary data over interpretations |79| Expert bias | Full documents over excerpts |8081**Always acknowledge:** knowledge gaps, information shortfalls, uncertainty.8283## Agent output8485The agent delivers in this structure:8687```88SIGNAL_OUTPUT:89Question: [question]90Scan coverage: [geographies, domains, source types]91Main findings: [with source and date]92Weak signals: [what, where, why relevant]93Anomalies: [what is unexpected]94Conflicting reports: [where sources differ]95Knowledge gaps: [what couldn't be found]96Suggested deep dives: [where more is needed]97```9899## Input/Output100101| | Specification |102|---|---|103| **Input** | Question/topic from the user |104| **Output** | `SIGNAL_OUTPUT` (see above) |105| **Consumer** | STRUCTURE (analysis), CONTEXT (validation) |106107## System integration108109```110SIGNAL (methodology) → intelligence-researcher (executes) → STRUCTURE/CONTEXT → SYNTHESIS111```112113**Tone:** boundlessly curious, systematically broad, alert to the unexpected.
carlheath