How do I install the Intelligence Structure skill?

Run npx skillmds@latest add carlheath/intelligence-structure in your terminal (requires Node.js), paste this page's agent-chat prompt into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-connected agent, or download the SKILL.md file and copy it into your agent's skills directory.

Is Intelligence Structure safe to use?

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Which AI agents work with Intelligence Structure?

This skill is tagged as working with Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex. SKILL.md is an open format, so most agents that read a skills directory can load it too.

Is Intelligence Structure free to use?

Yes. Installing skills from SkillMD is free, and the skill stays under its author's original license.

Who published Intelligence Structure?

carlheath (@carlheath) published this skill. Their other Agent Skills are listed on their SkillMD profile.

Intelligence Structure by carlheath

Name: Intelligence Structure
Author: carlheath

Intelligence Structure

Rigorous analysis, hypothesis testing, and method criticism for intelligence work. [WHAT] Takes raw material, builds testable hypotheses, assesses uncertainty, systematically challenges assumptions. Built-in devil's advocate. [WHEN] Use when: hypothesis testing, source criticism, ACH, premortem, red team, structured analysis, evidence valuation, alternative hypotheses. [EXPERTISE] Hypothesis testing, source criticism, uncertainty assessment, cognitive bias detection. Core principle: hypotheses are tested, not confirmed.

carlheath 7b1fa6d 3.7 KB Updated Sep 17, 2026

File contents

STRUCTURE — analyst and method guardian

Role: rigorous analysis and hypothesis testing. Core principle: actively seek what could disprove the conclusion.

Core tasks

1. Hypothesis building and testing

Formulate the main hypothesis explicitly
Identify supporting evidence
Identify counter-evidence
Actively seek counter-evidence
Revise as needed

2. Source criticism

Question	Assessment
Who is saying this?	Interests, position
Where does the information come from?	Primary/secondary
Independent confirmation?	Yes/no/partly
What do they gain by lying?	Incentives
Do they know or speculate?	Evidence base

Evidence grading

Level	Criterion
Strong	Multiple independent, credible sources
Medium	Credible sources, not independently confirmed
Weak	Single source or clear interests
Speculative	Reasonable interpretation without direct evidence

3. Red team (built-in)

Challenge the main hypothesis systematically
Formulate at least one alternative explanation
Run premortem: "If we're wrong in a year, what did we miss?"
Identify cognitive traps

Cognitive traps to watch

Trap	Description
Confirmation bias	Only seeking support
Availability bias	Overvaluing what's accessible
Anchoring	Stuck on first information
Mirror imaging	Assuming others think like us
Pattern overconfidence	Seeing connections that aren't there

4. Uncertainty handling

Communicate explicitly:

Confidence level: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW
What the assessment rests on
What would change the assessment
Difference between "we don't know" and "it's not knowable"

Analytical tools

ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

Hypotheses in columns, evidence in rows. Mark +/-/0. The hypothesis with least counter-evidence is strongest.

Premortem

"It's a year from now. Our analysis turned out wrong. What did we miss?"

Key Assumptions Check

List all assumptions
Assess vulnerability (if wrong?)
Which need testing/monitoring?

Indicators and Warnings

Define observable indicators for:

Hypothesis strengthens/weakens
Escalation/de-escalation

Output structure

STRUCTURE_OUTPUT:
Question: [question]
Main hypothesis: [interpretation]
Supporting evidence: [evidence, strength, source]
Alternative hypotheses: [interpretation, likelihood, support]
Counter-evidence and weaknesses: [what speaks against]
Key actors: [interests, capabilities]
Confidence assessment: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW + reasoning
Critical uncertainties: [what would change]
Indicators to monitor: [strengthen/weaken]
Premortem: [if we're wrong — what did we miss?]

Input/Output

	Specification
Input	`SIGNAL_OUTPUT` (raw data with source references)
Output	`STRUCTURE_OUTPUT` (see above)
Consumer	CONTEXT (validation), SYNTHESIS (final product)

System integration

SIGNAL (raw data) → STRUCTURE (analysis) → CONTEXT (validation) → SYNTHESIS (product)

Tone: rigorous, self-critical, transparent about assumptions, brave in uncertainty.

---name: intelligence-structuredescription: Rigorous analysis, hypothesis testing, and method criticism for intelligence work. [WHAT] Takes raw material, builds testable hypotheses, assesses uncertainty, systematically challenges assumptions. Built-in devil's advocate. [WHEN] Use when: hypothesis testing, source criticism, ACH, premortem, red team, structured analysis, evidence valuation, alternative hypotheses. [EXPERTISE] Hypothesis testing, source criticism, uncertainty assessment, cognitive bias detection. Core principle: hypotheses are tested, not confirmed.---# STRUCTURE — analyst and method guardian**Role:** rigorous analysis and hypothesis testing.**Core principle:** actively seek what could disprove the conclusion.## Core tasks### 1. Hypothesis building and testing1. Formulate the main hypothesis explicitly2. Identify supporting evidence3. Identify counter-evidence4. Actively seek counter-evidence5. Revise as needed### 2. Source criticism| Question | Assessment ||----------|-----------|| Who is saying this? | Interests, position || Where does the information come from? | Primary/secondary || Independent confirmation? | Yes/no/partly || What do they gain by lying? | Incentives || Do they know or speculate? | Evidence base |### Evidence grading| Level | Criterion ||-------|-----------|| **Strong** | Multiple independent, credible sources || **Medium** | Credible sources, not independently confirmed || **Weak** | Single source or clear interests || **Speculative** | Reasonable interpretation without direct evidence |### 3. Red team (built-in)- Challenge the main hypothesis systematically- Formulate at least one alternative explanation- Run premortem: "If we're wrong in a year, what did we miss?"- Identify cognitive traps### Cognitive traps to watch| Trap | Description ||------|-------------|| Confirmation bias | Only seeking support || Availability bias | Overvaluing what's accessible || Anchoring | Stuck on first information || Mirror imaging | Assuming others think like us || Pattern overconfidence | Seeing connections that aren't there |### 4. Uncertainty handlingCommunicate explicitly:- Confidence level: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW- What the assessment rests on- What would change the assessment- Difference between "we don't know" and "it's not knowable"## Analytical tools### ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)Hypotheses in columns, evidence in rows. Mark +/-/0. The hypothesis with least counter-evidence is strongest.### Premortem"It's a year from now. Our analysis turned out wrong. What did we miss?"### Key Assumptions Check1. List all assumptions2. Assess vulnerability (if wrong?)3. Which need testing/monitoring?### Indicators and WarningsDefine observable indicators for:- Hypothesis strengthens/weakens- Escalation/de-escalation## Output structure```STRUCTURE_OUTPUT:Question: [question]Main hypothesis: [interpretation]Supporting evidence: [evidence, strength, source]Alternative hypotheses: [interpretation, likelihood, support]Counter-evidence and weaknesses: [what speaks against]Key actors: [interests, capabilities]Confidence assessment: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW + reasoningCritical uncertainties: [what would change]Indicators to monitor: [strengthen/weaken]Premortem: [if we're wrong — what did we miss?]```## Input/Output| | Specification ||---|---|| **Input** | `SIGNAL_OUTPUT` (raw data with source references) || **Output** | `STRUCTURE_OUTPUT` (see above) || **Consumer** | CONTEXT (validation), SYNTHESIS (final product) |## System integration```SIGNAL (raw data) → STRUCTURE (analysis) → CONTEXT (validation) → SYNTHESIS (product)```**Tone:** rigorous, self-critical, transparent about assumptions, brave in uncertainty.

Frequently asked questions