CaseMark Modeling Waterfall Distribution Mechanics
When To Use
- Modeling LP/GP economics for a new fund's LPA negotiation
- Comparing European (whole-fund) vs. American (deal-by-deal) carry structures
- Calculating preferred return accrual and catch-up splits under specific fund terms
- Projecting GP clawback exposure under downside scenarios
- Auditing an existing waterfall model against LPA language
- Preparing distribution examples for investor side letters or advisory committee presentations
Inputs To Gather
- Fund terms from LPA/term sheet: committed capital, GP commitment percentage, management fee rate and basis (committed vs. invested), preferred return rate (compounding convention — annual, quarterly, continuous), carry percentage, catch-up split ratio
- Waterfall structure type: European (whole-fund) or American (deal-by-deal), or hybrid
- Catch-up provisions: full catch-up (100/0) vs. partial (e.g., 80/20), and whether catch-up is capped
- Return of capital definition: whether return of capital includes recycled proceeds, management fee offsets, or only invested capital [VERIFY against LPA Section on Distributions]
- Clawback terms: GP clawback trigger, tax gross-up treatment, escrow/holdback percentage, timing of true-up (interim vs. final liquidation)
- Cash flow projections: investment amounts by period, projected realization proceeds and timing, interim income (dividends, interest)
- Fee economics: management fee schedule (step-down timing), organizational expenses cap, fee offsets from portfolio company monitoring/transaction fees
Workflow
Map the waterfall tiers from the LPA
- Tier 1: Return of capital (confirm whether this means contributed capital, invested capital, or contributed capital plus allocable fees/expenses) [VERIFY]
- Tier 2: Preferred return accrual — calculate on unreturned capital at the stated rate; confirm compounding convention and day-count basis
- Tier 3: GP catch-up — model the split (commonly 100% to GP until GP has received its carry share of all cumulative profits, or a partial catch-up ratio)
- Tier 4: Carried interest split (typically 80/20 LP/GP after catch-up is satisfied)
- Note: Some LPAs include additional tiers (e.g., super-carry above a second hurdle). Capture any non-standard tiers explicitly.
Build the period-by-period cash flow model
- For European style: aggregate all contributions and distributions across the fund life; carry is only calculated and distributed after all invested capital plus preferred return is returned to LPs on a cumulative, whole-fund basis
- For American style: calculate carry on each realized investment independently; track a running "loss account" or "netting mechanism" where losses on prior deals reduce carry on subsequent deals [VERIFY netting terms in LPA]
- Track cumulative contributions, cumulative distributions, unreturned capital balance, and accrued preferred return balance at each period
Model the preferred return accrual
- Compound at the LPA-specified rate on unreturned capital
- Reduce the accrual balance as distributions are applied (confirm order of application: return of capital first, then preferred return, or blended)
- For quarterly compounding on an 8% annual hurdle: apply 2% per quarter to the unreturned capital balance
Calculate catch-up distributions
- After LPs have received return of capital plus preferred return, GP receives catch-up distributions
- Full catch-up: 100% of next distributions flow to GP until GP's cumulative carry equals its carried interest percentage of total profits
- Partial catch-up (e.g., 80/20): distributions split 80% GP / 20% LP until the same threshold is met
- Formula check: at the catch-up completion point, GP's cumulative distributions should equal (carry %) x (total cumulative profits)
Model GP clawback exposure
- For American-style waterfalls: after each distribution, calculate the hypothetical position as if the fund liquidated at that moment
- Clawback = amount by which GP's cumulative carry exceeds what it would have earned under a whole-fund calculation
- Apply any escrow/holdback (commonly 20-50% of carry distributions held back) [VERIFY holdback percentage]
- Model tax gross-up if applicable — GP clawback is typically net of taxes deemed paid on prior carry distributions
Run scenario and sensitivity analysis
- Base case, upside (+20% proceeds), and downside (-30% proceeds) on realization values
- Vary realization timing (early exits vs. extended holds) to show impact on preferred return accrual
- Compare European vs. American outcomes on identical cash flows to quantify the economic difference
- Stress-test clawback exposure under loss-last scenarios (profitable deals exit first, losers remain)
Output
- Waterfall summary table: period-by-period rows showing contributions, distributions, LP share, GP share, preferred return balance, and cumulative multiples (TVPI, DPI, RVPI)
- Carry comparison schedule: side-by-side European vs. American carry under base-case projections (if both structures are being evaluated)
- GP clawback analysis: maximum clawback exposure by period, net of escrow/holdback, with tax gross-up impact
- Sensitivity matrix: net carry to GP and net multiple to LPs across 3-5 scenarios
- Assumptions register: all inputs, compounding conventions, and LPA section references documented in a single tab/section
Quality Checks
- Reconciliation: total distributions to LP + total distributions to GP must equal total fund proceeds in every period
- Preferred return verification: at the point carry begins, confirm LPs have received exactly their contributed capital plus compounded preferred return
- Catch-up math: at catch-up completion, verify GP cumulative carry = (carry %) x (cumulative distributions - cumulative contributions)
- Clawback floor: GP clawback should never exceed cumulative carry distributions received (net of tax gross-up)
- Cross-check: run the model with a single investment returning exactly 1.0x to confirm zero carry is paid
- LPA conformance: every formula and tier boundary should trace to a specific LPA section — flag any ambiguity with [VERIFY]