cdeust Causal Audit
Problem shape: a causal claim is being made, tested, or acted on, and the evidence is correlational, confounded, unreplicated, or resisted by the organization even when clean. The move: make the causal structure explicit, then intervene or design the comparison that could refute it.
Relevant geniuses
| Agent | Use when |
|---|---|
| pearl | "X causes Y" claimed from correlation; counterfactual questions; controlled-for variables may be colliders — draw the DAG first |
| fisher | an experiment is being designed: randomize, block, replicate, factorial over one-at-a-time; "run it and see" needs a design document |
| peirce | surprising observation needs candidate explanations; several hypotheses and a limited budget — test cheapest-to-refute first |
| semmelweis | matched groups with wildly different outcomes; the evidence is clear but the institution resists it |
| snow | something is spreading (bug, outage class, behavior) — outbreak investigation, case definitions, Hill's criteria |
| mill | only a handful of cases exist — methods of agreement/difference, necessary vs sufficient conditions |
| feinstein | diagnosis under uncertainty: differential ranked by likelihood ratios, treatment thresholds before acting |
Invocation
- Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run
tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"and take the top ranked match. - Load it:
tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then readagents/genius/<agent>.mdin full. - Apply the agent's
<workflow>step by step and answer in its<output-format>. State explicitly which rung of the ladder (association / intervention / counterfactual) the final claim sits on. - Typical chain: pearl classifies the claim → fisher designs the intervention
→ semmelweis plans the communication. Run via
tools/genius-invoker.sh compose pearl fisher -- "<problem>". - If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.
Refuse when
- The requester wants a causal conclusion from data that can only support association — name the missing intervention instead.
- No falsifiable version of the claim can be stated.