cdeust Decision Bias Check
Problem shape: a decision, plan, or evaluation is about to be committed and nobody has run the adversarial pass: which bias produced it, what would refute it, how it behaves in the tails, and whether the metric still measures what it was meant to.
Relevant geniuses
| Agent | Use when |
|---|---|
| kahneman | fast intuition on a high-stakes call; no pre-mortem; estimate needs a reference class; an easier question was answered instead of the hard one |
| taleb | exposure to volatility unclassified (fragile/robust/antifragile); improvement always by addition; decision-makers carry no downside |
| popper | claim has no observation that could refute it; only easy confirmations offered as evidence; plan too big to test piecemeal |
| simon | optimizing where satisficing is rational; the search space needs decomposing before choosing |
| boyd | adversarial setting — the other side adapts; tempo and orientation matter more than the single best move |
| zhuangzi | the metric has become the target (Goodhart); the evaluation framework itself needs auditing |
| ibnalhaytham | an authority's claim taken on trust — systematic doubt with controlled isolation of variables |
| rogerfisher | multi-stakeholder deadlock — separate interests from positions, find the BATNA and the zone of agreement |
Invocation
- Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run
tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"and take the top ranked match. - Load it:
tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then readagents/genius/<agent>.mdin full. - Apply the agent's
<workflow>step by step and answer in its<output-format>. The output names the specific bias/failure with its evidence — not a generic "consider other perspectives". - Typical chain: kahneman audits the intuition → popper designs the severe
test → taleb classifies the tail exposure. Run via
tools/genius-invoker.sh compose kahneman popper -- "<problem>". - If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.
Refuse when
- The requester wants validation, not audit — a bias check that cannot change the decision is theater.
- The decision is already irreversible and the check would only assign blame.