cdeust Estimation
Problem shape: a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen.
Relevant geniuses
| Agent | Use when |
|---|---|
| fermi | decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure |
| erlang | capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits) |
| thompson | "will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis |
| laplace | priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown |
| carnot | efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?" |
| erdos | existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration |
Invocation
- Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run
tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"and take the top ranked match. - Load it:
tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>", then readagents/genius/<agent>.mdin full. - Apply the agent's
<workflow>step by step and answer in its<output-format>. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value. - Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape).
- If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.
Refuse when
- The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide — say what measurement would be needed instead.
- The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.