Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview

description: Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", or "preview Q[X] for [company]".

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

• Identify the company and reporting quarter
• Pull consensus estimates via web search (revenue, EPS, key segment metrics)
• Find the earnings date and time (pre-market vs. after-hours)
• Review the company's prior quarter earnings call for any guidance or commentary

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

• Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment)
• EPS vs. consensus
• Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting?
• Free cash flow
• Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

• Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
• Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
• Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
• Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
• Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications:

For each scenario:

• What would need to happen operationally
• What management commentary would signal this
• Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints?

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction:

1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters
2. [Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear
3. [Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

Step 5: Output

One-page earnings preview with:

• Company, quarter, earnings date
• Consensus estimates table
• Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance)
• Bull/base/bear scenario table
• Catalyst checklist
• Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options

Important Notes

• Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates
• "Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
• Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations (search for "[company] earnings reaction history")
• Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios

Hermes Profile Notes

This skill was packaged from pi-financial-services source path plugins/vertical-plugins/equity-research/skills/earnings-preview for the Hermes financial-services profile. Use institutional data connectors first when available, cite sources, and stage outputs for qualified human review.

Common Pitfalls

1. Do not present drafts as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice.
2. Do not use web search as the primary source when an institutional MCP/data connector is available.
3. Do not execute transactions, contact clients, post to a ledger, or approve onboarding. Stage outputs for review.

Verification Checklist

• Inputs, assumptions, dates, and currencies are explicit.
• Numbers tie across tables, models, decks, and memos.
• Sources are cited and institutional data is preferred where available.
• Output is labeled draft / for human review where appropriate.