Thesis Tracker

Thesis Tracker

description: Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions".

Workflow

Step 1: Define or Load Thesis

If creating a new thesis:

• Company: Name and ticker
• Position: Long or Short
• Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
• Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
• Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
• Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
• Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
• Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit

If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.

Step 2: Update Log

For each new data point or development:

• Date: When this happened
• Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
• Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
• Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
• Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low

Step 3: Thesis Scorecard

Maintain a running scorecard:

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Track upcoming catalysts:

Step 5: Output

Thesis summary suitable for:

• Morning meeting discussion
• Portfolio review
• Risk committee presentation

Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.

Important Notes

• A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
• Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
• Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
• If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
• Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions

Hermes Profile Notes

This skill was packaged from pi-financial-services source path plugins/vertical-plugins/equity-research/skills/thesis-tracker for the Hermes financial-services profile. Use institutional data connectors first when available, cite sources, and stage outputs for qualified human review.

Common Pitfalls

1. Do not present drafts as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice.
2. Do not use web search as the primary source when an institutional MCP/data connector is available.
3. Do not execute transactions, contact clients, post to a ledger, or approve onboarding. Stage outputs for review.

Verification Checklist

• Inputs, assumptions, dates, and currencies are explicit.
• Numbers tie across tables, models, decks, and memos.
• Sources are cited and institutional data is preferred where available.
• Output is labeled draft / for human review where appropriate.