cloudthinker-ai Cloud Commitment Calculator
Phase 1: Historical Usage Analysis
- Collect usage data for the analysis period
- Compute hours by instance family, region, OS
- Database instance hours by engine and size
- Storage volume by tier
- Data transfer volumes
- Identify usage trends (growing, stable, declining)
- Calculate minimum baseline usage (P10 percentile)
- Determine steady-state usage (P50 percentile)
- Map seasonal or cyclical patterns
Usage Baseline Summary
| Resource Type | P10 (Minimum) | P50 (Steady) | P90 (Peak) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute | +/-/= | |||
| Database | +/-/= | |||
| Storage | +/-/= |
Phase 2: Commitment Options Modeling
Coverage Scenarios
| Scenario | Coverage Target | Commitment Spend | On-Demand Remainder | Total Cost | Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | P10 baseline | $ | $ | $ | % |
| Moderate | P25-P50 | $ | $ | $ | % |
| Aggressive | P50-P75 | $ | $ | $ | % |
- Model conservative coverage (commit only to minimum baseline)
- Model moderate coverage (commit to steady-state)
- Model aggressive coverage (commit to higher percentile)
- Calculate risk of underutilization for each scenario
- Factor in growth projections
Phase 3: Break-Even Analysis
- Calculate break-even utilization for each commitment type
- Determine months to break-even for upfront payments
- Assess penalty for early termination or modification
- Model worst-case scenario (workload disappears)
- Compare flexibility of different commitment types
Break-Even Table
| Commitment Type | Term | Upfront | Break-Even Utilization | Break-Even Month | Flexibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI - No Upfront | 1yr | $0 | % | Month | Low |
| RI - Partial | 1yr | $ | % | Month | Low |
| RI - All Upfront | 1yr | $ | % | Month | Low |
| Savings Plan | 1yr | $ | % | Month | Medium |
| CUD | 1yr | $ | % | Month | Low |
Phase 4: Optimal Purchase Plan
- Generate recommended purchase list
- Phase purchases over time to reduce risk
- Stagger expiration dates for renewal flexibility
- Allocate budget across commitment types
- Reserve portion of budget for on-demand flexibility
Recommended Purchases
| Priority | Type | Details | Term | Monthly Commit | Annual Savings | Purchase Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $ | $ |
Phase 5: Ongoing Monitoring
- Track commitment utilization weekly
- Compare actual savings vs. projected
- Flag commitments below utilization threshold
- Queue renewal analysis 90 days before expiration
- Adjust strategy based on usage trend changes
Counter-Rationalizations
| Shortcut | Counter | Why |
|---|---|---|
| "We can skip some steps for this case" | Adapt the workflow steps, don't skip them | Skipped steps are where incidents and oversights originate |
| "The user seems to already know what to do" | Complete all workflow phases with the user | The workflow catches blind spots that experience alone misses |
| "This is a minor case, full process is overkill" | Scale the process down, don't turn it off | Minor cases become major when unstructured; the process scales, not disappears |
| "I'll fill in the details later" | Complete each section before moving on | Deferred details are forgotten; real-time capture is more accurate |
| "The template output isn't necessary" | Always produce the structured output format | Structured output enables comparison, audit trails, and handoff to other teams |
Output Format
- Usage Analysis: Historical patterns and baseline calculations
- Scenario Comparison: Side-by-side of coverage strategies
- Purchase Plan: Prioritized commitment purchases with dates
- Break-Even Report: Risk analysis per commitment
- Monitoring Dashboard: Utilization and savings tracking
Action Items
- Extract historical usage data
- Calculate usage baselines and trends
- Model commitment scenarios
- Select strategy aligned with risk tolerance
- Get budget approval for purchase plan
- Execute purchases in phased schedule
- Set up utilization monitoring and alerts