Commercial Risk Assessment
Overview
Identify, classify, and score commercial risks (pricing, counterparty, contractual, market), generate mitigation strategies, and integrate with the risk register system.
Announce at start: "I'm using the commercial-risk-assessment skill to assess commercial risks."
When to Use This Skill
Trigger Conditions:
- New contract or project phase requiring risk assessment
- Major commercial change (price changes, supplier failure)
- Periodic risk review required
- Project milestone requiring risk update
Prerequisites:
- Project scope and context available
- Contract terms understood
- Budget and schedule baseline available
Step-by-Step Procedure
Step 1: Risk Identification
Identify risks across categories:
| Risk Category |
Examples |
| Pricing Risk |
Inaccurate estimates, market volatility, currency fluctuation |
| Counterparty Risk |
Client insolvency, subcontractor default, supplier underperformance |
| Contractual Risk |
Onerous terms, unclear scope, ambiguous specifications |
| Market Risk |
Commodity price changes, supply shortage, regulatory changes |
| Performance Risk |
Failure to meet specifications, delays, quality defects |
| Force Majeure |
Natural disasters, war, pandemic, government action |
Step 2: Risk Scoring
For each identified risk:
- Likelihood: Rate 1-5 (Rare to Almost Certain)
- Impact: Rate 1-5 (Insignificant to Catastrophic)
- Risk Score: Likelihood × Impact
- Risk Rating: Low (1-6), Medium (8-12), High (15-19), Critical (20-25)
Step 3: Mitigation Strategy
For each risk:
- Identify mitigation options (avoid, reduce, transfer, accept)
- Select preferred mitigation(s)
- Assign mitigation owner
- Set mitigation target date
- Calculate residual risk after mitigation
Step 4: Risk Register Update
Update risk register with:
- Risk ID, description, category
- Likelihood, impact, score, rating
- Mitigation strategy and owner
- Target date
- Residual risk assessment
Step 5: Risk Report
Generate risk summary report:
- Top 10 risks by score
- Risk heatmap summary
- Mitigation status overview
- Emerging risk alerts
- Trend analysis
Success Criteria
Common Pitfalls
- Generic Risks — Avoid "weather delays" or "unforeseen conditions". Be specific to the contract and project.
- No Mitigation Owner — Without an owner, mitigation doesn't happen. Always assign ownership.
- Underestimating Likelihood — Don't be optimistic for comfort. Use historical data to assess likelihood.
Cross-References
Related Skills
commercial-risk-register-management — Risk register maintenancecommercial-counterparty-risk-assessment — Counterparty risk analysis
Related Agents
COM-011 Commercial Risk Register Agent — Primary agentCOM-001 Commercial Coordinator Agent — Supporting agent
1---2name: commercial-risk-assessment3description: Identify, classify, and score commercial risks with mitigation strategy generation and risk register integration4---56# Commercial Risk Assessment78## Overview910Identify, classify, and score commercial risks (pricing, counterparty, contractual, market), generate mitigation strategies, and integrate with the risk register system.1112**Announce at start:** "I'm using the commercial-risk-assessment skill to assess commercial risks."1314## When to Use This Skill1516**Trigger Conditions:**17- New contract or project phase requiring risk assessment18- Major commercial change (price changes, supplier failure)19- Periodic risk review required20- Project milestone requiring risk update2122**Prerequisites:**23- Project scope and context available24- Contract terms understood25- Budget and schedule baseline available2627## Step-by-Step Procedure2829### Step 1: Risk Identification3031Identify risks across categories:3233| Risk Category | Examples |34|---------------|----------|35| Pricing Risk | Inaccurate estimates, market volatility, currency fluctuation |36| Counterparty Risk | Client insolvency, subcontractor default, supplier underperformance |37| Contractual Risk | Onerous terms, unclear scope, ambiguous specifications |38| Market Risk | Commodity price changes, supply shortage, regulatory changes |39| Performance Risk | Failure to meet specifications, delays, quality defects |40| Force Majeure | Natural disasters, war, pandemic, government action |4142### Step 2: Risk Scoring4344For each identified risk:451. **Likelihood:** Rate 1-5 (Rare to Almost Certain)462. **Impact:** Rate 1-5 (Insignificant to Catastrophic)473. **Risk Score:** Likelihood × Impact484. **Risk Rating:** Low (1-6), Medium (8-12), High (15-19), Critical (20-25)4950### Step 3: Mitigation Strategy5152For each risk:531. Identify mitigation options (avoid, reduce, transfer, accept)542. Select preferred mitigation(s)553. Assign mitigation owner564. Set mitigation target date575. Calculate residual risk after mitigation5859### Step 4: Risk Register Update6061Update risk register with:62- Risk ID, description, category63- Likelihood, impact, score, rating64- Mitigation strategy and owner65- Target date66- Residual risk assessment6768### Step 5: Risk Report6970Generate risk summary report:71- Top 10 risks by score72- Risk heatmap summary73- Mitigation status overview74- Emerging risk alerts75- Trend analysis7677## Success Criteria7879- [ ] All risk categories assessed80- [ ] Each risk scored (likelihood × impact)81- [ ] Mitigation strategy defined for high and critical risks82- [ ] Risk owner assigned83- [ ] Risk register updated84- [ ] Summary report generated8586## Common Pitfalls87881. **Generic Risks** — Avoid "weather delays" or "unforeseen conditions". Be specific to the contract and project.892. **No Mitigation Owner** — Without an owner, mitigation doesn't happen. Always assign ownership.903. **Underestimating Likelihood** — Don't be optimistic for comfort. Use historical data to assess likelihood.9192## Cross-References9394### Related Skills95- `commercial-risk-register-management` — Risk register maintenance96- `commercial-counterparty-risk-assessment` — Counterparty risk analysis9798### Related Agents99- `COM-011` Commercial Risk Register Agent — Primary agent100- `COM-001` Commercial Coordinator Agent — Supporting agent
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