contextgo Finance Forecast Scenario Planning
Use this skill when the output needs to support planning, not just explain the past.
Use when
- The user needs a forecast, reforecast, or scenario view.
- Assumption changes must be visible.
- Finance and operating teams need a forward-looking planning narrative.
Do not use when
- The task is only backward-looking variance explanation.
- There are no usable drivers.
- The user only wants spreadsheet formatting help.
Forecasting principles
- Model from drivers when possible.
- Separate assumptions from calculations.
- Use scenarios instead of a single fragile forecast.
- Avoid hockey-stick assumptions unless they are clearly justified.
Workflow
1. Identify the drivers
Possible drivers include:
- volume
- price
- customer count
- ARPU
- churn
- headcount
- gross margin
- cash conversion
2. Build the base case
The base case should be the most defensible path, not the most optimistic path.
3. Stress the plan
Create:
- bull case
- base case
- bear case
Say exactly which assumptions change across cases.
4. Translate the forecast into decisions
The answer should show:
- what the plan implies
- where the forecast is most fragile
- which assumptions are most worth monitoring
Output format
Return:
1. Driver frame
- main drivers used
- missing inputs
- planning horizon
2. Scenario view
- bull
- base
- bear
3. Planning implications
- revenue, margin, or cash outlook
- biggest forecast risks
- next monitoring points
Use together with
finance-budget-variance-analysisfinance-saas-metricsoffice-duckdb-query