contextgo Finance Thesis Stress Test
Use this skill when the real job is not building the case, but trying to break it.
Use when
- A thesis or recommendation already exists.
- The user wants to know what could make the thesis fail.
- A management or investment case needs stronger downside discipline.
Do not use when
- No thesis exists yet.
- The task is only to summarize financial statements.
- The user wants comfort rather than challenge.
Stress-test rules
- Attack the assumptions doing the most work.
- Distinguish thesis risk from valuation risk.
- Name invalidation conditions explicitly.
- End with monitoring triggers, not just abstract caution.
Workflow
1. Restate the current thesis
Write the thesis as clearly as possible:
- what the user believes
- what must go right
- what valuation or outcome the view depends on
2. Identify the pressure points
Common stress points:
- revenue growth durability
- margin sustainability
- cash conversion
- leverage and refinancing risk
- customer concentration
- cyclical exposure
- management execution risk
- competitive response
3. Build downside paths
For each pressure point, ask:
- what if this assumption is too optimistic
- how quickly would the thesis weaken
- what would show up first in the numbers
4. Define invalidation and monitoring
The answer should explicitly state:
- what would invalidate the thesis
- what would reduce confidence
- what would increase conviction
- which metrics or events should be monitored next
Output format
Return:
1. Thesis under review
- current thesis
- core assumptions
2. Pressure points
- assumption
- failure mode
- why it matters
3. Invalidation map
- what breaks the thesis
- what weakens it
- what would strengthen it
4. Monitoring triggers
- metrics or events to watch next
Use together with
finance-dcf-valuationfinance-investment-memofinance-investment-screening