cyberelf Polymarket + Multi-Source China Market Sentiment Analyzer
Collect data from multiple information channels to support comprehensive sentiment analysis for Chinese concept stocks (中概股) and A-shares.
The agent performs all judgment and interpretation. The scripts in this skill are pure data collectors — they fetch raw information without making directional calls.
When to Use
- The user asks about Polymarket prediction market data for China/HK topics
- The user wants sentiment context for A-share or 中概股 investment decisions
- The user requests multi-source market intelligence (news, macro, market proxies)
- The user asks about specific stocks: BYD, NIO, Alibaba, Tencent, SMIC, etc.
Prerequisites
Polymarket CLI (required for prediction market data)
brew tap Polymarket/polymarket-cli https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli
brew install polymarket
# or
curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli/main/install.sh | sh
polymarket --version
yfinance (optional — enables market proxy data)
pip install yfinance
Skill Structure
polymarket-analyzer/
├── SKILL.md
├── references/
│ ├── china_stock_mapping.json # 21 China concept stocks → A-share sector/ticker mapping
│ ├── signal_weights.json # Configurable source weights for composite analyzer
│ ├── workflows/
│ │ ├── scenario-1-macro-geopolitical.md # Top-down macro & geopolitical risk workflow
│ │ ├── scenario-2-sector-catalyst.md # Bottom-up sector/company catalyst workflow
│ │ └── scenario-3-daily-pulse.md # Fast daily digest / delta-only briefing
│ └── templates/
│ ├── comprehensive-insight-report.md # Full deep-dive report template (Scenarios 1 & 2)
│ └── quick-brief.md # 30-second pulse template (Scenario 3)
└── scripts/
├── polymarket_analyzer.py # Full 7-source composite analyzer
├── query-markets.py # Polymarket search — active markets only by default
├── filter-markets.py # Polymarket multi-filter — active markets only by default
├── fetch-market-data.py # Raw price/volume for China proxy instruments
└── fetch-cn-news.py # Raw headlines from Chinese domestic + global sources
Information Channels
Channel 1 — Polymarket Prediction Markets
Scripts: scripts/query-markets.py, scripts/filter-markets.py
Real-money crowd probabilities on macro, geopolitical, and corporate events. Best for tail risks such as Taiwan conflict, trade war escalation, and rate decisions.
Channel 2 — Financial Market Proxies
Script: scripts/fetch-market-data.py
Raw daily price and volume data for 11 China-sensitive instruments:
| Ticker | Instrument | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | Direct China equity sentiment |
| KWEB | KraneShares China Internet ETF | China tech/internet |
| ^HSI | Hang Seng Index | HK market |
| HG=F | Copper Futures | China industrial demand |
| AUDUSD=X | AUD/USD | China commodities activity |
| CNY=X | USD/CNY | Renminbi strength |
| ^VIX | CBOE Volatility Index | Global risk appetite |
| GC=F | Gold Futures | Safe-haven demand |
| ^TNX | US 10-yr Treasury Yield | US rate pressure on EM |
| EEM | iShares Emerging Markets ETF | EM flow proxy |
| UUP | US Dollar Index ETF | USD strength |
Channel 3 — Chinese Domestic Financial News
Script: scripts/fetch-cn-news.py
Raw headlines from domestic Chinese financial media:
| Source ID | Name | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
caixin |
财新 Caixin Global | Investigative finance/economy (EN+ZH) |
sina_finance |
新浪财经 | Breaking A-share news, policy |
yicai |
第一财经 | Macro, banking, real estate |
eastmoney |
东方财富 | Retail investor hot topics |
stcn |
证券时报 | Regulatory / official securities news |
21cbh |
21世纪经济报道 | Industry deep dives |
xinhua_finance |
新华财经 | State macro/policy announcements |
Channel 4 — Global / HK China-Focused News
Script: scripts/fetch-cn-news.py (same script, global sources)
| Source ID | Name | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
reuters_china |
Reuters China | Breaking, macro, corporate |
scmp |
South China Morning Post | HK/Greater China business |
ft_china |
Financial Times China | Western institutional view |
nikkei_china |
Nikkei Asia China | Japan/Asia regional perspective |
xinhua_en |
Xinhua English | Official Chinese government narrative |
Channels 5–7 — Embedded in Composite Analyzer
Invoked automatically by scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py:
- CNN Fear & Greed Index — US market psychology; extreme readings affect EM risk appetite
- Reddit Social Sentiment — r/investing, r/wallstreetbets, r/china, r/ChineseStocks, r/emergingmarkets
- World Bank Macro — China GDP, CPI, export growth, FDI, US real interest rate
Scripts Usage
scripts/query-markets.py — Polymarket raw search
Returns active markets only by default. Use --all to include closed/resolved markets.
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "china"
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "taiwan" --limit 100 --format json
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "byd" --limit 50
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "pboc rate"
# Include resolved markets (for historical analysis only):
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "taiwan" --limit 100 --format json --all
scripts/filter-markets.py — Polymarket multi-filter
Defaults to --status active. Use --status closed or --status all to override.
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords taiwan,invasion --volume 100000
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords byd,nio,xpeng,alibaba,tencent
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --status active --volume 50000 --format json
# Closed markets (historical reference only):
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords taiwan --status closed --format json
scripts/fetch-market-data.py — Market proxy raw data
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --format json
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --period 30d
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --tickers "FXI KWEB ^VIX"
scripts/fetch-cn-news.py — China news raw headlines
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --format json --limit 20
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --source caixin --limit 30
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --source caixin,scmp
scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py — Full composite run
Executes all seven channels and prints a structured report:
python3 scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py
Channels unavailable at runtime degrade gracefully with no crash.
Analysis Workflows & Scenarios
Three scenario-specific workflows are defined in references/workflows/. Each workflow applies First Principles Thinking — defining a hypothesis first, then fetching only the data needed to test it.
| Scenario | File | Use When |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Macro & Geopolitical Risk (Top-Down) | references/workflows/scenario-1-macro-geopolitical.md |
Taiwan, tariffs, PBOC, elections, USD/CNY stress |
| 2. Sector-Specific Catalyst (Bottom-Up) | references/workflows/scenario-2-sector-catalyst.md |
EVs, Semiconductors, Property, Internet, specific companies |
| 3. Daily Market Pulse / Fast Digest | references/workflows/scenario-3-daily-pulse.md |
Pre-market briefing, end-of-day delta check |
Core Analytical Principles (applied in all scenarios)
- Liquidity Weighting: Polymarket odds mean nothing without volume. Verify pool size. A 90% probability with $500 volume is noise; with $5M volume, it's a signal.
- Divergence Detection: The most profitable insights stem from discrepancies between explicit prediction market odds and implicit market proxy pricing.
- Probability Momentum: Focus on the delta (change over time). A contract moving from 10% to 30% in two days is highly actionable.
- Active Markets Only (Data Collection): Scripts default to active-only. Never treat a closed/resolved contract as a current signal.
- Historical Context (Mandatory): Always compare the current PM probability against: (a) the trend of the last 7–30 days for this specific contract, and (b) how analogous resolved contracts priced and resolved historically. A probability without a trend is not a signal — it is a datapoint. Use
--allto retrieve resolved contracts for comparison. - Conflict-First Analysis: When any two sources disagree, the conflict itself is the most important finding in the report. Explain the conflict and its likely cause before forming any directional thesis. A thesis built by ignoring a conflict is not a thesis — it is wishful reasoning.
- Multi-Source Minimum: A directional conclusion requires ≥2 independent channels in agreement. Single-source signals must be labeled "Unconfirmed — Watch Only." State explicitly which channels confirm and which dissent.
Accumulated Experience
Before running any analysis, check EXPERIENCE.md for relevant prior observations:
- Source reliability notes calibrated from past sessions
- Known false signal patterns (e.g., sectors where PM historically misprices)
- Conflict resolution examples from past analyses
- User feedback on conviction thresholds
After the user provides feedback on analysis quality or outcome accuracy, append a new entry to EXPERIENCE.md using the format defined in that file.
Standardized Output Templates
Two templates are defined in references/templates/. Always use the appropriate template when generating a response.
| Template | File | Use When |
|---|---|---|
| A: Comprehensive Investment Insight Report | references/templates/comprehensive-insight-report.md |
Full analysis from Scenario 1 or 2; includes confidence score, proxy confirmation table, source attribution, and data provenance |
| B: Quick Brief | references/templates/quick-brief.md |
Daily pulse (Scenario 3) or when user needs a rapid digest; ALERT / WATCH / No-Change triage format |
References
references/china_stock_mapping.json
Maps 21 China concept stocks to A-share sectors, tickers, supply chain names, HK listings, and correlation coefficients. Companies covered: BYD, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Meituan, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, SMIC, Huawei supply chain, Evergrande, Anta, Haier, Midea, Foxconn. Also includes macro factor mappings for: PBOC rate cuts, US-China trade war, Taiwan tensions, China stimulus.
references/signal_weights.json
Configurable source weights for the composite analyzer. Four profiles:
| Profile | Description |
|---|---|
default |
Polymarket 35%, market_data 25%, news 20%, fear_greed 10%, … |
news_heavy |
Elevates news to 35% when Polymarket coverage is thin |
market_only |
90% weight on market proxies only |
sentiment_focus |
Emphasis on social + Fear & Greed for retail sentiment reads |
A-share Sector Quick Reference
| Market Signal | A-share Sector | Key Tickers |
|---|---|---|
| EV sales / BYD / NIO | New Energy + Battery | BYD 002594.SZ, CATL 300750.SZ |
| Taiwan tensions | Defense | AVIC 600893.SH, CSGC 000768.SZ |
| US chip restrictions | Semiconductor localization | SMIC 688981.SH, Hua Hong 688347.SH |
| Trade war / tariffs | Export manufacturing | Luxshare 002475.SZ, Hisense 600060.SH |
| PBOC rate cut | Banks + Real estate | ICBC 601398.SH, Vanke 000002.SZ |
| China stimulus | Infrastructure | CRCC 601186.SH, CREC 601390.SH |
| Copper surge | Industrial metals | Jiangxi Copper 600362.SH |
Troubleshooting
Polymarket CLI not found
export PATH="$PATH:$HOME/.cargo/bin:$HOME/.local/bin"
yfinance not installed — fetch-market-data.py will print an error and exit cleanly; all other channels still work.
Chinese news sources unreachable — Some domestic RSS feeds block non-CN IPs. Use a HK/mainland proxy, or focus on: caixin, reuters_china, scmp, xinhua_en.