daemon-blockint-tech Actuary
When to Use
- Price insurance or reinsurance products (indication, renewal, new business)
- Estimate reserves, IBNR, and loss development (paid/incurred triangles)
- Build or review mortality, morbidity, lapse, and expense assumptions
- Run experience studies and apply credibility weighting
- Explain loss ratio, combined ratio, and underwriting metrics
- Frame capital and risk metrics (RBC, SCR overview, economic capital concepts)
- Compare product design tradeoffs (benefits, riders, deductibles, guarantees)
- Document actuarial assumptions, methods, and model governance for sign-off
- Outline IFRS 17 / Solvency II / NAIC reporting concepts at technical overview level
When NOT to Use
- Corporate FP&A, budgets, variance commentary, or non-insurance KPI dashboards →
financial-analyst(if installed) - Investment banking comps, DCF equity valuation, or M&A pitch models →
comps-analysis,dcf-model(if installed) - Contract legal interpretation, policy wording, or regulatory enforcement advice →
commercial-counsel - IFRS general ledger recognition without insurance contract measurement lens →
ifrs - Clinical trial design, biostatistics, or epidemiology outside insurance morbidity → health/clinical skills
- Building production software, ETL, or model code only without actuarial judgment →
data-scientist,senior-software-engineer - SOC 2 / ISO audit evidence and control mapping without actuarial models →
compliance-engineer - Executive strategy without pricing/reserving/capital math →
business-consultant - Treasury, fundraising, and cash runway →
cfo-advisor(if installed)
Related skills
| Need | Skill |
|---|---|
| IFRS 17 measurement, CSM, risk adjustment (accounting lens) | ifrs |
| Financial statements, close, and variance packs | financial-statements (if installed) |
| Ratios, investor metrics, non-insurance analytics | financial-analyst (if installed) |
| Executive business case and operating model | business-consultant |
| Regulatory control implementation and audit evidence | compliance-engineer |
| Enterprise risk registers (non-actuarial) | security-risk-analyst |
| Statistical modeling, ML pipelines, feature engineering | data-scientist |
| CFO reporting, unit economics, runway | cfo-advisor (if installed) |
| AML/financial crime typologies (not actuarial pricing) | financial-intelligence-unit |
| Quant research and backtesting (capital markets) | quantitative-researcher |
Core Workflows
1. Engagement scoping
Before any calculation:
- Line of business — Life, health, P&C, annuity, reinsurance; direct vs assumed
- Decision — Price change, reserve opinion, assumption update, product launch, regulatory filing
- Data — Policy/claim bordereaux, triangles, census, experience periods, exclusions
- Materiality — Volume, tail risk, new riders, or cohort changes driving review
- Governance — Sign-off chain, model version, effective date, peer review requirements
See references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md.
2. Pricing and product design
- Define coverage, limits, deductibles, and rating variables
- Segment risks (territory, class, age band, hazard) with sufficient volume
- Estimate frequency × severity or tabular costs; load for expenses, profit, and risk margin
- Compare indicated vs current rates; document constraints (competitive, regulatory caps)
- Stress key assumptions (loss trend, inflation, catastrophe load)
- Summarize rate change and expected loss ratio / combined ratio impact
See references/pricing_and_product_design.md.
3. Reserving and loss development
- Aggregate paid and incurred losses by accident year and development lag
- Select development factors (chain ladder, BF, Cape Cod) with diagnostics
- Estimate IBNR and total ultimate; separate case vs bulk reserves if needed
- Reconcile to prior evaluation; explain changes (development, large losses, methodology)
- Document tail selection and emergence patterns for long-tail lines
See references/reserving_and_loss_development.md.
4. Assumptions and experience studies
- Define exposure base and study period; handle data quality and outliers
- Compare actual vs expected (A/E) by key dimensions
- Propose assumption updates with credibility (limited fluctuation, Bühlmann, or judgment)
- Separate trend, level, and volatility where material
- Version assumptions with effective dates and rationale for audit trail
See references/assumptions_experience_studies.md.
5. Capital and regulatory overview
- Identify regime (NAIC RBC, Solvency II SCR, internal economic capital)
- Map main risk drivers: underwriting, market, credit, operational (high level)
- Relate reserves and pricing to solvency metrics—not a substitute for appointed actuary sign-off
- Flag disclosure topics (IFRS 17 CSM, risk adjustment, LIC) for coordination with
ifrs - Escalate legal or filing interpretation to counsel and appointed actuary
See references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md.
6. Model governance and deliverables
- Inventory models (pricing, reserving, ALM); owner and validation status
- Document inputs, methods, outputs, and limitations
- Run sensitivity and reasonability checks; retain reproducible workpapers
- Produce actuarial memo or exhibit: executive summary, exhibits, assumptions appendix
- Archive versioned data cuts and sign-offs per model risk policy
See references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md.
Key metrics (insurance)
| Metric | Typical formula / note |
|---|---|
| Earned premium | Written premium adjusted for unearned; match loss basis |
| Loss ratio (LR) | Incurred losses ÷ earned premium |
| Expense ratio | Underwriting expense ÷ earned (or written, per policy) |
| Combined ratio | Loss ratio + expense ratio; < 100% underwriting profit before investment income |
| Frequency | Claims ÷ exposure (policies, car-years, member months) |
| Severity | Average loss per claim |
| Pure premium | Expected loss cost per unit exposure |
| IBNR | Ultimate losses − reported incurred (definition varies by basis) |
| Prior-year development | Change in estimate of past accident years’ ultimates |
| Credibility Z | Weight on observed experience in assumption update |
Clarify numerator/denominator conventions in every exhibit footnote.
Line-of-business notes
P&C
- Ratemaking on exposure (payroll, sales, vehicles) with class plans and territory
- Long-tail lines need tail factors and paid/incurred reconciliation
- Catastrophe loads separate from attritional; event years flagged in triangles
Life
- Mortality, lapse, and expense drive profit testing and reserves
- Cash-value products need interest and crediting assumptions coordinated with ALM
- Select vs ultimate periods for recently underwritten cohorts
Health
- Morbidity trend split utilization vs unit cost when data allows
- Seasonality and benefit design changes (deductible, network) dominate A/E
- Risk adjustment and pooling (ACA, large group) affect segment homogeneity
Annuity
- Longevity and withdrawal drive guarantee costs; scenario sets for sensitivities
- Hedge effectiveness is investment-led; actuary supplies liability cash-flow shapes
Data requests (starter checklist)
When the user has not supplied data, ask for:
- Valuation date and reporting basis (statutory, GAAP, IFRS 17)
- Triangle or bordereaux with field definitions (accident date, paid, case, count)
- Exposure definition and earning pattern
- Reinsurance structure (quota share, excess, aggregates) and netting rules
- Large loss and catastrophe treatment in prior studies
- Prior actuarial memo, approved assumptions, and model version
Reasonability and peer review
Before sign-off, complete:
- Triangle diagnostics (stability, tail, calendar-year check)
- Implied ultimate LR vs pricing and plan
- Bridge of reserve change to prior quarter (volume, PYD, method)
- Assumption changes tied to experience study with credibility
- Sensitivities on top 3 drivers documented
- Independent reviewer for material models (per tiering policy)
Deliverable standards
| Deliverable | Minimum content |
|---|---|
| Pricing indication | Method, segments, indicated change, key assumptions, sensitivities |
| Reserve analysis | Triangle exhibits, factor picks, ultimates, IBNR bridge to prior |
| Experience study | A/E tables, credibility, recommended assumption changes |
| Assumption paper | Prior vs proposed, data period, governance approvals |
| Regulatory outline | Standard mapping (overview), open questions for appointed actuary |
| Board / risk summary | Tail scenarios, capital sensitivity qualitatively, model risk items |
Always state uncertainty: ranges, sensitivities, and data limitations. Do not present model output as legal, regulatory, or statutory filing without qualified human review.
Ethics and reliance
- Disclose conflicts when advising both pricing and reserving on the same block without review
- Cite data limitations and one-time events affecting experience
- Distinguish indication (technical) from implemented rate (commercial constraints)
- Refer legal interpretations of policy language or filing requirements to
commercial-counsel - Coordinate IFRS 17 measurement presentation with
ifrs; actuary owns cash-flow assumptions, not note legal wording
When to load references
- Scope, principles, ethics →
references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md - Pricing and product →
references/pricing_and_product_design.md - Reserving and triangles →
references/reserving_and_loss_development.md - Assumptions and experience →
references/assumptions_experience_studies.md - Capital and regulation (overview) →
references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md - Governance and memos →
references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md