danielmiessler World Threat Model Harness
What It Does
Stress-tests an idea, strategy, or investment against 11 time horizons from 6 months to 50 years. Each horizon is a deep (10 page) world model covering geopolitics, technology, economics, society, environment, security, and wildcards. Three speed tiers: Fast (2 min, single synthesizer), Standard (10 min, 11 parallel agents plus RedTeam and FirstPrinciples), Deep (1 hr, adds Research and Council). Three workflows: TestIdea returns a probability-weighted scenario matrix across all 11 horizons; UpdateModels and ViewModels handle the rest. (A dedicated TestScenario workflow for named alternative-future scenarios is planned, not yet built — scenario files under Scenarios/ are consumed by TestIdea today.)
The Problem
Most plans get tested against the present, or against the next year or two at most — so they break the moment the world shifts on a timeline you never modeled. A strategy that looks great at the 1-year horizon can be fatal at 10 years, and a 50-year bet can ignore the near-term cascade that kills it first. Holding all those horizons in your head at once, with real geopolitical, economic, and technological reasoning behind each, is more than any single pass can do. This harness keeps 11 persistent world models warm and runs your idea against all of them at the same time, with adversarial analysis on top.
How It Works
A system of 11 persistent world models spanning 6 months to 50 years. Each model is a deep (~10 page) analysis of geopolitics, technology, economics, society, environment, security, and wildcards for that time horizon. Ideas, strategies, and investments are tested against ALL horizons simultaneously using adversarial analysis (RedTeam, FirstPrinciples, Council).
Workflow Routing
| Workflow | Trigger | File |
|---|---|---|
| TestIdea | "test idea", "test strategy", "test investment", "how will this hold up", "stress test", "test against future" — test any input against all 11 world models | Workflows/TestIdea.md |
| UpdateModels | "update world model", "update models", "refresh models", "new analysis" — refresh world model content with new research/analysis | Workflows/UpdateModels.md |
| ViewModels | "view world model", "show models", "current models", "model status" — read and summarize current world model state | Workflows/ViewModels.md |
Tier System
All workflows support three execution tiers:
| Tier | Target Time | Strategy | When to Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fast | ~2 min | Single agent synthesizes across all models | Quick gut-check, casual exploration |
| Standard | ~10 min | 11 parallel agents + RedTeam + FirstPrinciples | Most use cases, good depth/speed balance |
| Deep | Up to 1 hr | 11 parallel agents + per-horizon Research + RedTeam + Council + FirstPrinciples | High-stakes decisions, major investments |
Default tier: Standard. User specifies with "fast", "deep", or tier defaults to Standard.
World Model Storage
Models are stored at: $LIFEOS_DIR/MEMORY/RESEARCH/WorldModels/
Horizon Models (base views)
| File | Horizon |
|---|---|
INDEX.md |
Summary of all models with last-updated dates |
6-month.md |
6-month outlook |
1-year.md |
1-year outlook |
2-year.md |
2-year outlook |
3-year.md |
3-year outlook |
5-year.md |
5-year outlook |
7-year.md |
7-year outlook |
10-year.md |
10-year outlook |
15-year.md |
15-year outlook |
20-year.md |
20-year outlook |
30-year.md |
30-year outlook |
50-year.md |
50-year outlook |
Scenario Models (alternative futures)
Stored at: $LIFEOS_DIR/MEMORY/RESEARCH/WorldModels/Scenarios/
| File | Scenario |
|---|---|
great-correction-2027.md |
Severe US crash (2027 ± 12mo) — AI capex burst + housing + credit cascade |
Context Files
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
ModelTemplate.md |
Template structure for world model documents |
OutputFormat.md |
Template for TestIdea results output |
Skill Integrations
This skill orchestrates multiple LifeOS capabilities:
- RedTeam — Adversarial stress testing of ideas against each horizon
- FirstPrinciples — Decompose idea assumptions into hard/soft/assumption constraints
- Council — Multi-perspective debate on idea viability across horizons
- Research — Deep research for model creation and updates
Voice Notification
Before any workflow execution:
curl -s -X POST http://localhost:31337/notify \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"message": "Running the WORKFLOWNAME workflow in the WorldThreatModel skill to ACTION"}' \
> /dev/null 2>&1 &
Then output: Running the **WorkflowName** workflow in the **WorldThreatModel** skill to ACTION...
Customization Check
Before execution, check for user customizations at:
~/.claude/LIFEOS/USER/CUSTOMIZATIONS/SKILLS/WorldThreatModel/
Gotchas
- 11 time horizons (6mo-50yr). Don't over-index on short-term predictions — the value is in long-term structural analysis.
- Threat models are hypothetical. Present as scenarios with probability ranges, not predictions.
- Update models when major world events occur. Static threat models decay in accuracy.
Examples
Example 1: Test an investment thesis
User: "threat model my bet on AI-first content creation"
→ Analyzes across 11 time horizons (6mo to 50yr)
→ Identifies structural risks at each horizon
→ Returns probability-weighted scenario matrix
Example 2: Stress test a strategy
User: "what could go wrong with our newsletter business model?"
→ Maps threat vectors: market, technology, regulatory, competitive
→ Returns prioritized risk register with mitigations
Execution Log
After completing any workflow, append a single JSONL entry:
echo '{"ts":"'$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)'","skill":"WorldThreatModel","workflow":"WORKFLOW_USED","input":"8_WORD_SUMMARY","status":"ok|error","duration_s":SECONDS}' >> ~/.claude/LIFEOS/MEMORY/SKILLS/execution.jsonl
Replace WORKFLOW_USED with the workflow executed, 8_WORD_SUMMARY with a brief input description, and SECONDS with approximate wall-clock time. Log status: "error" if the workflow failed.