danielpradilla Assumption Risk Ledger
Surface and prioritize the untested assumptions embedded in any product plan before development begins.
Required Inputs
Ask the user for these if not provided:
- Product brief, PRD, or concept description (even rough notes work)
- Stage (concept / discovery / pre-build / post-launch - affects which assumptions matter most)
Process
- Read the provided brief, PRD, or concept description
- Extract assumptions across four categories:
- Desirability (do users want this?)
- Feasibility (can we build it?)
- Viability (will it sustain the business?)
- Usability (can users actually use it?)
- Score each assumption:
- Confidence (1-5): How sure are we this is true?
- Impact (1-5): How badly does the plan fail if this assumption is wrong?
- Priority = Impact − Confidence (higher = test first)
- Validate completeness - Ensure at least one assumption per category. If a category is empty, re-read the brief looking specifically for that type.
- Output a ranked list with recommended validation methods
Output Structure
Assumption Map: [Feature/Product Name]
| Assumption | Category | Confidence | Impact | Priority | Validation Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [assumption] | [type] | [1-5] | [1-5] | [score] | [method] |
Critical Assumptions (Impact 4+ and Confidence 2 or below)
[Flagged items with detailed validation recommendations]
Top 3 Assumptions to Validate First
[Detailed recommendations including specific research method, estimated effort, and what the result would change]