Build a complete investment thesis in the format a hedge fund PM would want to read:
SETUP (2 sentences): Why is this opportunity available? What does the market misunderstand?
BULL CASE (3 bullets): The specific things that must go right. Price target and timeline.
BASE CASE (3 bullets): Steady-state assumptions. Price target. Expected return vs S&P.
BEAR CASE (3 bullets): What kills the thesis. Maximum expected drawdown. Is it recoverable?
KEY CATALYSTS (ordered by probability × impact):
- [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]
- [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]
- [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]
POSITION SIZING SIGNAL: High / Medium / Low conviction. Why.
EXIT CRITERIA: What would make you sell regardless of price?