digital-stoic-org Probe
Safe-to-fail experiment in Complex domain. Cause-effect only visible in retrospect — probe to sense patterns, not to prove.
Probing: $ARGUMENTS
Check for handoff context: if $ARGUMENTS references a probe-to-probe-llm.md file, load it before Phase 1 — carried context accelerates qualification.
⚠️ AskUserQuestion Guard
CRITICAL: After EVERY AskUserQuestion call, check if answers are empty/blank. Known Claude Code bug: outside Plan Mode, AskUserQuestion silently returns empty answers without showing UI.
If answers are empty: DO NOT proceed with assumptions. Instead:
- Output: "⚠️ Questions didn't display (known Claude Code bug outside Plan Mode)."
- Present the options as a numbered text list and ask user to reply with their choice number.
- WAIT for user reply before continuing.
Phase 1: Qualify (foreground — MANDATORY)
ENTRY GATE: Phase 2 does not start until Phase 1 is complete. No bypass path exists.
1.1 Parse hypothesis
Extract from $ARGUMENTS or handoff context:
- Hypothesis statement (what you believe might be true)
- Enabling constraints already known (carry forward from prior cycles — do NOT rediscover)
- Confirm/refute criteria already defined (carry forward, update if refined)
If no hypothesis present: AskUserQuestion — ask user to state the hypothesis. Do not proceed without one.
1.2 Identify enabling constraints
Bounds without prescribing path:
- Scope: time, access, reversibility boundary
- Immutable: production systems, data integrity, user-facing state
- Variable: what can be freely changed within experiment
Carry forward from prior cycles unchanged unless explicitly updated.
1.3 Define confirm/refute criteria
Before running: define observable signals. For each criterion:
- Confirmed: observable evidence that supports the hypothesis
- Refuted: observable evidence that contradicts the hypothesis
- Surprise: unexpected result that suggests a different hypothesis
Criteria must be defined before Phase 2 executes. Gate on this.
1.4 Present probe plan
Output:
🔬 Probe → [constraints] → [steps] → [expected patterns] → [confirm/refute criteria] → GATE
Probe type (see reference.md): architecture | library | prompt | integration | design
1.5 Entry gate
AskUserQuestion — one call:
- "Proceed with probe? [Yes / Revise hypothesis / Revise criteria / Abort]"
On confirm: Phase 2 executes. On anything else: loop back to 1.1–1.4.
Phase 2: Execute (background)
Configuration: isolation: worktree + run_in_background: true
Runs only after Phase 1 entry gate passes.
2.1 Execute probe steps
Run the experiment as defined in Phase 1. Prefer minimal, reversible actions. Gate frequency is SPARSE — enabling constraints bound the agent, not human micromanagement.
2.2 Sense patterns
Observe results against confirm/refute criteria:
- What signal emerged?
- What was unexpected?
- What constraints were discovered during execution?
2.3 Persist Thinking Artifact ⚠️ MANDATORY
MUST execute before exit gate. DO NOT skip. DO NOT wait for user to ask.
Write probe result to $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking/probes/{project}/{date}-{slug}-llm.md.
{project} = current project folder name (e.g., agent-skills, gtd-pcm). Create $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking/probes/{project}/ if missing.
Collision handling: If filename exists, append sequence: {date}-{slug}-2-llm.md, {date}-{slug}-3-llm.md, etc. First write gets clean name.
Guard: If $PRAXIS_DIR is unset, warn user and skip artifact persistence: ⚠️ $PRAXIS_DIR not set — artifact not persisted. Set via: export PRAXIS_DIR="$HOME/dev/praxis"
Content: hypothesis + enabling constraints + steps taken + observations + sensed patterns + result classification.
2.4 Exit gate
Classify result: confirmed | refuted | partial | surprise
Produce B4-compatible handoff:
| Result | When | Transition | Template |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Hypothesis holds | Complex → Complicated | probe-to-investigate-llm.md |
| partial (enough signal) | Some evidence, ready for expert analysis | Complex → Complicated | probe-to-investigate-llm.md |
| partial (need another angle) | Some evidence, hypothesis needs sharpening | Complex → Complex (re-probe) | probe-to-probe-llm.md |
| refuted / surprise | Hypothesis failed or unexpected result | Complex → Complex (brainstorm) | probe-to-brainstorm-llm.md |
Handoff token budget: target 300 tokens inline, flex 200-500, hard cap 600. References to $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking files do not count toward cap.
Self-transition: if result is partial and hypothesis can be sharpened, re-invoke /probe via probe-to-probe-llm.md with accumulated context. Prior cycles compressed to 200 tokens at 800-token accumulated cap.
Refs
reference.md— probe types, observability format, input quality tableprobe-to-investigate-llm.md— handoff: confirmed/partial → Complicatedprobe-to-brainstorm-llm.md— handoff: refuted/surprise → Complex (brainstorm)probe-to-probe-llm.md— handoff: partial → Complex (self-transition)