dragoon0x Market Validation
Test assumptions before committing resources.
How to use
/market-validationApply validation-first constraints to this conversation./market-validation <idea>Generate a validation plan for the described idea.
Constraints
Assumption Mapping
- MUST list the top 3 assumptions that would kill the product if wrong
- MUST rank assumptions by risk: which one, if false, makes everything else irrelevant
- MUST design a test for the highest-risk assumption first
- NEVER build until the highest-risk assumption has some evidence behind it
Validation Methods (ordered by speed and cost)
- Talk to 5 people who have the problem. Just listen.
- Search for existing solutions and read their reviews. What's missing?
- Build a landing page that describes the product. Measure interest.
- Create a fake door: a button that says "coming soon" to measure demand
- Build the smallest possible thing that tests the core assumption
Interview Framework
- Ask about past behavior, not future intent ("Tell me about the last time..." not "Would you use...")
- NEVER ask "Would you pay for this?" Ask "How do you solve this today and what does it cost you?"
- MUST listen for emotion. Mild interest is not validation. Frustration is.
- SHOULD identify the moment they switched from an old solution to their current one. What triggered it?
Signal vs. Noise
- "That's cool" is not validation. "When can I use this?" is closer.
- Email signups are weak signals. Credit card on waitlist is strong.
- 100 lukewarm responses < 10 people who desperately need this
- MUST define what "validated" looks like before running the test
Anti-Patterns
- Survey-based validation (people lie in surveys, even to themselves)
- Asking friends and family (they'll say what you want to hear)
- Treating a pitch deck as validation
- Building first, validating later
- Validating the easy assumption instead of the risky one