Market Morning Brief

Market Brief — Daily Morning & Evening Intelligence Digest

Overview

Market Morning Brief is a lightweight, resilient daily intelligence system designed to be the first thing you read each morning. It combines:

• Portfolio P&L — Your Kalshi positions and unrealized gains/losses
• Top opportunities — Markets with highest edge (if Kalshalyst cache available)
• Cross-platform divergences — Kalshi vs Polymarket pricing mismatches (if Arbiter cache available)
• X signal summaries — Top-performing prediction signals from Twitter/X (if Xpulse cache available)
• Crypto prices — Bitcoin, Ethereum, plus any configured altcoins (if Coinbase configured)
• Polymarket insights — Notable markets and volume activity

The brief is designed for 30-second scanning — each section is 3-8 lines maximum. If a data source is unavailable, the section gracefully degrades to "unavailable" and the brief continues.

When to Use This Skill

• You trade prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) and want daily market context
• You need a quick morning summary: portfolio status + opportunities + signals
• You want an evening briefing: either lightweight trading summary or AI-filtered news digest
• You want integration with your other market intelligence tools (Kalshalyst, Arbiter, Xpulse)
• You want plain text output suitable for SMS, iMessage, or any messaging platform
• You want AI-powered news curation: two-stage filtering to prevent notification fatigue

Every Evening (Default: 6:00 PM): Day's activity summary (positions opened/closed, realized P&L), watch list for overnight risks, top X signals from the day, and unusual market activity.

Architecture

Design Philosophy

Resilience through isolation. Each section:

• Wrapped in try/except to prevent one failure from breaking the entire brief
• Reads from cache files (not live APIs) for speed and reliability
• Gracefully degrades if data unavailable ("unavailable, check Kalshalyst directly")
• Logs failures without interrupting output

Plain text output. No markdown, no emojis, no formatting — designed for chat delivery:

• Compatible with iMessage, SMS, email, web chat, any platform
• Scannable: max 80 chars per line, clear section headers
• Readable at a glance in <30 seconds

Configurable integration. The brief reads from:

• Optional Kalshalyst cache (.kalshi_research_cache.json)
• Optional Arbiter cache (.crossplatform_divergences.json)
• Optional Xpulse cache (.x_signal_cache.json)
• Optional Coinbase API (if configured)
• Public Polymarket API (no auth)

If a cache file doesn't exist (skill not installed), that section simply shows "unavailable".

Configuration

Create or update your config.yaml:

market_morning_brief:
  enabled: true
  morning_time: "07:30"     # Schedule for morning brief
  evening_time: "18:00"     # Schedule for evening brief
  timezone: "America/New_York"

  # Kalshi API (required for portfolio section)
  kalshi:
    enabled: true
    api_key_id: "your-key-id"
    private_key_file: "/path/to/private.key"

  # Coinbase API (optional, for crypto prices)
  coinbase:
    enabled: false
    api_key: "sk-..."
    tickers: ["BTC", "ETH"]  # Customize as needed

  # Cache paths (for reading other skills' data)
  cache_paths:
    kalshalyst: "./state/.kalshi_research_cache.json"
    arbiter: "./state/.crossplatform_divergences.json"
    xpulse: "./state/.x_signal_cache.json"

  # Which sections to include
  include:
    portfolio: true
    kalshalyst_edges: true      # Requires Kalshalyst skill
    arbiter_divergences: true   # Requires Prediction Market Arbiter skill
    xpulse_signals: true        # Requires Xpulse skill
    crypto: false               # Requires Coinbase API key
    polymarket: true            # Free (public API)

Section-by-Section Breakdown

1. Portfolio Summary

Data source: Kalshi API (read-only)

Example output:

PORTFOLIO (3 positions, +$24 unrealized):
POTUS-2028-DEM    YES  100@48¢  $48 cost  +$18 unrl (exp: 242 days)
UKRAINE-2026-NO    YES   50@28¢  $14 cost   +$8 unrl (exp: 118 days)
FED-MAR-CUT        NO   200@35¢  $70 cost  -$2 unrl (exp: 8 days)

Fields:

• Ticker | Side (YES/NO) | Quantity @ Price | Cost | Unrealized P&L | Days to Expiration

Graceful degradation: If Kalshi API unavailable:

PORTFOLIO: unavailable (check Kalshi API)

2. Kalshalyst Edges (Optional)

Data source: Kalshalyst cache (.kalshi_research_cache.json)

Example output:

EDGES (Kalshalyst, top 3):
1. POTUS-2028-DEM    NO @ 38%  (+14% edge, 72% conf)
2. INFLATION-2026    YES @ 68%  (+8% edge, 65% conf)
3. UKRAINE-PEACE     YES @ 55%  (+6% edge, 58% conf)

Fields:

• Ticker | Side | Market Price | Edge % | Confidence %

Graceful degradation: If Kalshalyst skill not installed:

EDGES: unavailable — unlock with: clawhub install kalshalyst

3. Cross-Platform Divergences (Optional)

Data source: Prediction Market Arbiter cache (.crossplatform_divergences.json)

Example output:

DIVERGENCES (Arbiter, Kalshi ↔ Polymarket):
UKRAINE-2026-NO    Kalshi 28% ↔ PM 31%  ($0.03 spread, 12% vol diff)
POTUS-2028-DEM     Kalshi 38% ↔ PM 40%  ($0.02 spread, 8% vol diff)

Fields:

• Ticker | Kalshi Price ↔ Polymarket Price | Spread | Volume Difference

Graceful degradation: If Arbiter skill not installed:

DIVERGENCES: unavailable — unlock with: clawhub install prediction-market-arbiter

4. X Signal Summaries (Optional)

Data source: Xpulse cache (.x_signal_cache.json)

Example output:

X SIGNALS (Xpulse, last 24h):
Fed rate cut odds +5%   (confidence: 78%, reach: 8.2K)
Ukraine ceasefire talks (+3%, 72% conf, 5.1K reach)

Fields:

• Signal | Magnitude | Confidence % | Reach/Strength

Graceful degradation: If Xpulse skill not installed:

X SIGNALS: unavailable — unlock with: clawhub install xpulse

5. Crypto Prices (Optional)

Data source: Coinbase API (requires key + configuration)

Example output:

CRYPTO:
BTC  $62,400  (+1.2%)   | ETH  $3,140  (-0.8%)
SOL  $142     (-2.1%)   | AVAX $38     (+0.5%)

Fields:

• Ticker | Price | 24h Change %

Graceful degradation: If Coinbase not configured:

CRYPTO: unavailable (configure Coinbase API for crypto prices)

6. Polymarket Activity

Data source: Public Polymarket API (free)

Example output:

POLYMARKET (top 3 by volume):
POTUS 2028: $2.4M vol, 48% DEM (vs 52% GOP)
Inflation >4% 2026: $1.1M vol, 32% prob
Bitcoin $100K by 2026: $0.8M vol, 58% prob

Fields:

• Market | Volume | Implied Probability | (Context)

Graceful degradation: If Polymarket API unavailable:

POLYMARKET: unavailable (check Polymarket directly)

Evening Brief — Lightweight Market Summary + AI-Filtered News

Sent at configured evening time (default: 6:00 PM). Two variants: lightweight market update or full news digest with materiality filtering.

Lightweight Market Variant (6-8 lines, trading-focused)

EVENING BRIEFING — Thursday, March 7, 2026

ACTIVITY:
Current positions: 3 | Cost: $132 | Unrealized: +$24

OVERNIGHT WATCH:
• FED-MAR-CUT expires in 8 days — monitor Fed speakers before FOMC
• UKRAINE-2026 low liquidity (9 contracts asking) — wide spreads

TOP X SIGNALS TODAY:
• Ukraine ceasefire talks +3% (78% conf)
• Fed rate cut odds stabilizing (72% conf)

Key differences from morning brief:

• Shorter (6-8 lines max)
• Focus on intraday activity (current positions, cost, unrealized P&L)
• Overnight watch items (expirations, geopolitical risks, liquidity alerts)
• Top X signals from that day (not 24h rolling)

Full Evening News Digest (News-focused with AI filtering)

EVENING NEWS BRIEFING — Thursday, March 7, 2026

🏛️ Fed Signals Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts (87% conf, Reuters)
📈 Tech Stocks Rally on Earnings Beat (82% conf, Bloomberg)
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Over Trade Deal (79% conf, AP)
💻 AI Policy Bill Advances in Congress (76% conf, TechCrunch)
📌 Crypto Markets Stabilize After Volatility (71% conf, CoinDesk)

Features:

• Category icons: 🏛️ policy, 📈 markets, 💻 technology, 🌍 geopolitics, 📌 general
• Confidence scores (0-100%) show Qwen relevance assessment
• Two-stage filtering pipeline (see below)
• 48-hour rolling history prevents repeated news
• Fail-closed design: if Qwen unavailable, no news sent (silence over noise)

Evening Briefing: Two-Stage News Filtering Pipeline

Evening briefing combines DuckDuckGo news search with local Qwen LLM for AI-powered news curation. Designed to prevent notification fatigue while surfacing genuinely material developments.

Architecture

Stage 1: Relevance & Significance Filter

1. Search for recent news across configured topics (default: prediction markets, AI policy, federal reserve)
2. Run each article through Qwen: is this significant? (0-1 confidence score, category classification)
3. Filter to articles with confidence >= min_confidence (default: 0.7)
4. Limit to top 10 most confident articles for Stage 2

Stage 2: Materiality Gate (Prevents Notification Fatigue)

1. Load history of previously sent articles (48h rolling, max 200 entries)
2. Compare candidate articles against recent history
3. Qwen decision: is this NEW and MATERIAL? Or just ongoing background noise?
4. Drop duplicates, commentary, routine announcements
5. Only pass through genuinely new developments or significant escalations

Fail-Closed Design:

• If Qwen unavailable during Stage 1 or Stage 2: drop all articles (silence over noise)
• If no material news: send nothing (don't interrupt with noise)
• History persistence: ~/.openclaw/state/evening_news_history.json (max 200 entries, auto-cleanup)

Example Configuration

market_morning_brief:
  evening_briefing:
    enabled: true
    mode: "news"                    # "market" for activity summary, "news" for full news digest
    time: "18:00"                   # Briefing time (30-min window)
    materiality_gate: true          # Enable Stage 2 filter (prevents fatigue)
    min_confidence: 0.7             # Minimum relevance threshold (0-1)
    max_per_topic: 3                # Max articles per topic to search
    topics:
      - "prediction markets"
      - "AI policy"
      - "federal reserve"
      - "geopolitics"

Command Usage

# Lightweight market variant (activity + watch list)
python scripts/evening_brief.py --mode market

# Full news digest variant
python scripts/evening_brief.py --mode news

# Force send regardless of time/already-sent-today
python scripts/evening_brief.py --force

# Dry run (print without sending)
python scripts/evening_brief.py --dry-run

# Enable verbose logging
python scripts/evening_brief.py --debug

News History

Stored at ~/.openclaw/state/evening_news_history.json. Max 200 entries, auto-cleans after 48 hours. Used by Stage 2 materiality gate to prevent duplicate notifications.

Cache File Integration

Each optional skill writes a cache file that the Morning Brief reads automatically:

If a cache file doesn't exist, that section shows "unavailable" with the install command. See references/integration.md for cache file schemas.

Example Complete Morning Brief

MARKET MORNING BRIEF — Thursday, March 7, 2026

PORTFOLIO (3 positions, +$24 unrealized):
POTUS-2028-DEM    YES  100@48¢  $48 cost  +$18 unrl (exp: 242 days)
UKRAINE-2026-NO    YES   50@28¢  $14 cost   +$8 unrl (exp: 118 days)
FED-MAR-CUT        NO   200@35¢  $70 cost  -$2 unrl (exp: 8 days)

EDGES (Kalshalyst, top 3):
1. POTUS-2028-DEM    NO @ 38%  (+14% edge, 72% conf)
2. INFLATION-2026    YES @ 68%  (+8% edge, 65% conf)
3. UKRAINE-PEACE     YES @ 55%  (+6% edge, 58% conf)

DIVERGENCES (Arbiter):
UKRAINE-2026-NO    Kalshi 28% ↔ PM 31%  ($0.03 spread)
POTUS-2028-DEM     Kalshi 38% ↔ PM 40%  ($0.02 spread)

X SIGNALS (last 24h):
Fed rate cut odds +5%   (78% conf, 8.2K reach)
Ukraine ceasefire +3%   (72% conf, 5.1K reach)

CRYPTO:
BTC  $62,400  (+1.2%)   | ETH  $3,140  (-0.8%)

POLYMARKET (top 3 by vol):
POTUS 2028 DEM: $2.4M vol, 48% prob
Inflation >4% 2026: $1.1M vol, 32% prob
Bitcoin >$100K 2026: $0.8M vol, 58% prob

Scheduling & Commands

Morning Brief (Default: 7:30 AM)

# Manual trigger
python scripts/morning_brief.py

# With debug output
python scripts/morning_brief.py --debug

# Dry run (print without side effects)
python scripts/morning_brief.py --dry-run

# Custom config path
python scripts/morning_brief.py --config /path/to/config.yaml

# Via OpenClaw (if integrated):
openclaw skill run market-morning-brief morning

Cron Scheduling

30 7 * * * python /path/to/scripts/morning_brief.py              # Morning at 7:30 AM
0 18 * * * python /path/to/scripts/evening_brief.py --mode market  # Evening at 6:00 PM

Dependencies

Required: Python 3.10+, pip install kalshi-python requests pyyaml

For evening news digest: Ollama + Qwen model (ollama pull qwen3:latest), plus pip install ddgs (or duckduckgo-search as fallback).

Optional skills for additional brief sections: Kalshalyst, Prediction Market Arbiter, Xpulse (see Implementation Notes below).

Performance & Cost

Morning Brief

• Runtime: <5 seconds (all cached data)
• API calls: 1 (Polymarket public API) + 1 (Kalshi portfolio) = 2 calls
• Cost: $0 (Kalshi free tier, Polymarket free)

With Optional Skills

If Kalshalyst, Arbiter, Xpulse installed:

• Runtime: <2 seconds (reads cache files)
• Cost: Only the skill installation costs (brief itself has no additional cost)

Troubleshooting

Portfolio not showing: Verify Kalshi API key is configured and not rate-limited. Run python scripts/morning_brief.py --debug.

Sections showing "unavailable": Expected if the skill isn't installed. Install with the clawhub install command shown in the output, then run the skill once to generate its cache file.

Evening news empty: Check Ollama is running (ollama list), test Qwen (ollama run qwen3:latest "test"), and verify ddgs (python -c "from ddgs import DDGS; print('OK')").

Stage 2 drops everything: The materiality gate filters out non-novel news. Clear history with rm ~/.openclaw/state/evening_news_history.json and retry, or disable with --no-materiality-gate.

Qwen timeout: Reduce article count with --max-per-topic 2 or skip Stage 2 with --no-materiality-gate.

Implementation Notes

This skill is designed for standalone operation but unlocks its full potential with the OpenClaw Prediction Market Trading Stack.

Standalone: Portfolio P&L + Polymarket trending + Crypto prices (if configured). No other skills required.

With the full stack: Each additional skill adds a new section to your daily brief automatically — no configuration needed. Install skills, run them once, and the Morning Brief picks up their cache files on the next run.

Install the complete stack:

clawhub install kalshalyst kalshi-command-center polymarket-command-center prediction-market-arbiter xpulse portfolio-drift-monitor market-morning-brief personality-engine

Further Reading

• See references/sections.md for detailed section documentation
• See references/integration.md for technical integration guide
• See references/evening-pipeline.md for evening briefing pipeline documentation

Support

For issues: run with DEBUG=1 for verbose output, review references/sections.md and references/integration.md, or check /tmp/market-morning-brief.log.

Author: KingMadeLLC

Feedback & Issues

Found a bug? Have a feature request? Want to share results?

• GitHub Issues: github.com/kingmadellc/openclaw-prediction-stack/issues
• X/Twitter: @KingMadeLLC

Part of the OpenClaw Prediction Stack — the first prediction market skill suite on ClawHub.