dvcrn Munger Observer
Automated daily review applying Charlie Munger's mental models to surface blind spots and cognitive traps.
Process
1. Gather Today's Activity
- Read today's memory file (
memory/YYYY-MM-DD.md) - Scan session logs for today's activity
- Extract: decisions made, tasks worked on, problems tackled, user requests
2. Apply Mental Models
Inversion
- What could go wrong? What's the opposite of success here?
- "Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."
Second-Order Thinking
- And then what? Consequences of the consequences?
- Short-term gains creating long-term problems?
Incentive Analysis
- What behaviors are being rewarded? Hidden incentive structures?
- "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."
Opportunity Cost
- What's NOT being done? Cost of this focus?
- Best alternative foregone?
Bias Detection
- Confirmation bias: Only seeking validating information?
- Sunk cost fallacy: Continuing because of past investment?
- Social proof: Doing it because others do?
- Availability bias: Overweighting recent/vivid information?
Circle of Competence
- Operating within known territory or outside?
- If outside, appropriate humility/caution?
Margin of Safety
- What's the buffer if things go wrong?
- Cutting it too close anywhere?
3. Generate Output
If insights found: 1-2 concise Munger-style observations If nothing notable: "All clear — no cognitive landmines detected today."
Output Format
🧠 **Munger Observer** — [Date]
[Insight 1: Model applied + observation + implication]
[Insight 2 if applicable]
— "Invert, always invert." — Carl Jacobi (Munger's favorite)
Example
🧠 **Munger Observer** — January 19, 2026
**Opportunity Cost Alert:** Heavy focus on infrastructure today. The content queue is aging — are drafts decaying in value while we polish tools?
**Second-Order Check:** Speed improvement is good first-order thinking. Second-order: faster responses may raise expectations for response quality. Speed without substance is a trap.
— "Invert, always invert."
Scheduling (Optional)
Set up a cron job for daily automated review:
- Recommended time: End of workday (e.g., 5pm local)
- Trigger message:
MUNGER_OBSERVER_RUN