Polymarket Crypto Shadow Tracker

Polymarket Crypto Shadow Tracker

Every strategy looks good in your head. This one makes you prove it first. Shadow-trade every parameter variant on Polymarket crypto fast-markets — zero capital at risk — then promote the winner when the numbers say so.

What It Does

1. Discovers crypto fast-markets via Simmer API (get_fast_markets(asset=, window=))
2. Evaluates each market against your strategy plugin's signal logic
3. Logs shadow trades per variant — no real money touches the chain
4. Resolves outcomes using the positions endpoint
5. Ranks variants by win rate and EV — see what's actually working
6. Promotes the best variant when it clears your statistical gates

Starter Template Plugin

The included crypto_momentum_plugin.py is your starting point — drop in your signal logic, define your parameter grid, and the framework handles everything else.

Quick Start

# Shadow-trade BTC/ETH momentum variants
python shadow_tracker.py run -s crypto_momentum_plugin.py

# Resolve outcomes
python shadow_tracker.py resolve -s crypto_momentum_plugin.py

# Compare variants
python shadow_tracker.py stats -s crypto_momentum_plugin.py

# Find the best variant
python shadow_tracker.py promote -s crypto_momentum_plugin.py

Automaton Mode

Set SHADOW_CRYPTO_PLUGIN=crypto_momentum_plugin.py and run without a subcommand — it executes run + resolve automatically.

Config

# View config
python shadow_tracker.py --config

# Update config
python shadow_tracker.py --set max_trades_per_run=20

Writing Custom Plugins

Subclass StrategyPlugin from shadow_plugin_base.py:

from shadow_plugin_base import StrategyPlugin, TradeSignal, ShadowTrade

class MyStrategy(StrategyPlugin):
    name = "my_crypto_strategy"
    default_params = {"coin": "BTC", "threshold": 0.05}
    param_grid = {"coin": ["BTC", "ETH"], "threshold": [0.03, 0.05, 0.08]}

    # Promotion thresholds
    min_n = 30
    min_wr = 0.58
    min_ev_delta = 0.02

    def get_markets(self, client=None):
        """Fetch markets. Use client.get_fast_markets() for crypto."""
        markets = client.get_fast_markets(asset="BTC", window="15m", limit=50)
        return [{"id": m.id, "price": m.current_probability, ...} for m in markets]

    def evaluate(self, market, params):
        """Return TradeSignal or None."""
        ...

    def is_win(self, trade, market=None):
        """Return True/False/None. Resolution also handled by framework."""
        ...

Plugin Interface

Fast-Markets Fields (from Simmer SDK)

Requirements

• simmer-sdk (pip)
• SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable