dvcrn Polymarket Executor — Multi-Strategy Trading Bot
🎯 WHAT IT DOES
Autonomous trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets.
Starts in paper mode (simulated capital, zero risk) to validate strategy performance before deploying real money. Reads configuration from learned_config.json (adjusted automatically by polymarket-optimizer every 6 hours).
Markets covered:
- ✅ Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins — price targets, daily/weekly)
- ✅ Politics (elections, policy, polls, government decisions)
- ✅ Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf)
- ✅ Economics (Fed rates, CPI, jobs reports, GDP)
- ✅ Technology (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches)
- ✅ Entertainment (Oscars, Emmys, box office)
- ✅ Weather (hurricanes, temperature records, climate events)
- ✅ Miscellaneous (all binary outcome markets)
Total markets scanned: 500–5000+ per cycle
⚡ QUICK START
Paper Mode (Default — No credentials needed)
cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-executor
python3 polymarket_executor.py
Expected output:
============================================================
POLYMARKET EXECUTOR v2.0.0
============================================================
[MODE] 📄 PAPER TRADING (simulated capital: $100.00)
[CONFIG] Loaded learned_config.json
[GAMMA] Fetched 2,341 markets
[SCAN] Scanning 500 markets with 50 workers...
[SCAN] Found 8 opportunities
[TRADE] PAPER: parity_arbitrage | YES+NO = $0.94 | Edge: 6.3%
[PORTFOLIO] Capital: $100.00 | Open: 2 | P&L: +$0.00
Live Mode (After paper validation)
export PAPER_MODE=false
export POLYMARKET_API_KEY="your_key"
export POLYMARKET_SECRET="your_secret"
export POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE="your_passphrase"
export POLYMARKET_CAPITAL=50.0
python3 polymarket_executor.py
🔥 STRATEGIES
1. Parity Arbitrage — Risk: ZERO ✅
YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00 → buy both → guaranteed profit
YES: $0.45 + NO: $0.49 = $0.94 total
Buy both → payout: $1.00 → profit: 6.4%
Risk: NONE (guaranteed regardless of outcome)
Frequency: 5–20/day | Win rate: 100%
2. Tail-End Trading — Risk: Very Low ✅
Buy >95% certainty outcomes, wait for $1.00 resolution
Fed keeps rates → 98% certain → price: $0.97
Buy at $0.97 → resolution: $1.00 → profit: 3.1%
Risk: Very low (event almost certain)
Frequency: 10–30/day | Win rate: 95–98%
3. Logical Arbitrage — Risk: Low ✅
Finds impossible price combinations between related markets
"BTC > 100k by March" = 40%
"BTC > 90k by March" = 35% ← IMPOSSIBLE (90k < 100k)
Buy "BTC > 90k" at 35% — must resolve ≥ "BTC > 100k"
Frequency: 2–10/day | Win rate: 90–95%
📊 RISK MANAGEMENT
| Protection | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Kelly Criterion | 25% fraction | Conservative position sizing |
| Max position | 10% of capital | Per-market limit |
| Max concurrent | 3 trades | Open positions cap |
| Circuit breaker | -15% daily | Halts all trading |
| Stop-loss | -50% per position | Auto-close losing trades |
| Max daily trades | 20 | Hard cap per day |
🧠 ADAPTIVE LEARNING
The executor reads learned_config.json at startup. The optimizer updates this file every 6 hours.
What adapts automatically:
min_parity_profit— raised if false positives, lowered if win rate excellentmin_tail_end_certainty— adjusted based on tail-end win ratemin_logical_edge— tightened if logical arb underperformskelly_fraction— reduced if portfolio in drawdownstrategy_allocation— capital shifted toward best-performing strategiesscan_interval_seconds— faster scans when performing well
📁 FILES CREATED
| File | Description |
|---|---|
paper_trades.json |
All simulated trade records |
portfolio.json |
Capital, positions, daily P&L |
performance_metrics.json |
Per-strategy stats for optimizer |
live_trades.jsonl |
Real trade log (live mode only) |
learned_config.json |
Optimizer-adjusted parameters |
📱 TELEGRAM ALERTS
🎯 POLYMARKET SCAN COMPLETE
📊 Markets scanned: 500
🔍 Opportunities: 8
💼 PORTFOLIO
💰 Capital: $100.00
📈 Daily P&L: +$2.34
🎯 Win Rate: 75.0%
📊 Open positions: 2
📋 OPPORTUNITIES
• parity_arbitrage: 6.3% edge
Fed Rate Decision — Keeps...
• tail_end: 3.1% edge
Chiefs win Super Bowl...
✅ LIVE READINESS CHECKLIST
Before switching PAPER_MODE=false:
- 30+ resolved paper trades
- Win rate ≥ 55%
- Positive total P&L
- No circuit breaker triggered
- Polymarket API credentials configured
- USDC on Polygon wallet
- Residential proxy configured (VPS blocks CLOB POST)
The polymarket-optimizer will report readiness automatically.
⚠️ VPS / PROXY NOTE
Polymarket CLOB API blocks datacenter IPs (including Hostinger VPS) for POST /order.
Reading markets: works fine on VPS (no proxy needed) Placing orders: requires residential proxy in live mode
Recommended: IPRoyal, BrightData rotating residential proxy. Paper mode works 100% without proxy.
Version: 2.0.0 | License: MIT | Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)