How do I install the Polymarket Real Estate Trader skill?

Run npx skillmds@latest add dvcrn/polymarket-real-estate-trader in your terminal (requires Node.js), paste this page's agent-chat prompt into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-connected agent, or download the SKILL.md file and copy it into your agent's skills directory.

Is Polymarket Real Estate Trader safe to use?

This skill has not completed SkillMD's automated safety review yet. Independent scanners report: SkillSpector: PASS, Skill Scanner: PASS. Capability flags: executes scripts, makes network calls. SkillMD never runs a skill's scripts for you; review the SKILL.md before installing.

Which AI agents work with Polymarket Real Estate Trader?

This skill is tagged as working with Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex. SKILL.md is an open format, so most agents that read a skills directory can load it too.

Is Polymarket Real Estate Trader free to use?

Yes. Installing skills from SkillMD is free, and the skill stays under its author's original license.

Who published Polymarket Real Estate Trader?

dvcrn (@dvcrn) published this skill. Their other Agent Skills are listed on their SkillMD profile.

Polymarket Real Estate Trader by dvcrn

Name: Polymarket Real Estate Trader
Rating: 4.2 (5 reviews)
Author: dvcrn

Polymarket Real Estate Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property market milestones. Use when you want to capture alpha on macro housing markets using Fed minutes, Case-Shiller data, and mortgage rate signals.

dvcrn Updated Sep 8, 2026 32 repo stars

File contents

Real Estate & Housing Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Fed Funds Futures divergence from Polymarket rate-decision markets. Remix: CME FedWatch tool, Case-Shiller index releases, Zillow Research API, FRED economic data.

Edge Thesis

Housing and Fed rate markets are priced by retail traders who follow mainstream media narratives. Quantitative traders with access to Fed Funds Futures data have a significant edge:

CME FedWatch vs Polymarket: Fed Funds Futures (professional market) often diverges from Polymarket's rate decision markets by 5–15%. The futures market is better calibrated
Case-Shiller release lag: The index is published monthly with a 2-month lag — markets sometimes underprice the known trajectory
Regional divergence: National housing crash scenarios may be mispriced when regional data (Phoenix, Austin, Miami) already shows inflection
Commercial RE narrative: Office vacancy markets are emotionally driven by WFH debate — actual CBRE/JLL vacancy data provides hard edge

Remix Signal Ideas

CME FedWatch: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
FRED API: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/ — Federal Reserve economic data
Zillow Research: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
Redfin Data Center: https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	See clawhub.json	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	See clawhub.json	Min market volume filter
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	See clawhub.json	Max bid-ask spread
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	See clawhub.json	Min days until resolution
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	See clawhub.json	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

---name: polymarket-real-estate-traderdescription: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property market milestones. Use when you want to capture alpha on macro housing markets using Fed minutes, Case-Shiller data, and mortgage rate signals.---# Real Estate & Housing Trader> **This is a template.**> The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below.> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.## Strategy OverviewFed Funds Futures divergence from Polymarket rate-decision markets. Remix: CME FedWatch tool, Case-Shiller index releases, Zillow Research API, FRED economic data.## Edge ThesisHousing and Fed rate markets are priced by retail traders who follow mainstream media narratives. Quantitative traders with access to Fed Funds Futures data have a significant edge:- **CME FedWatch vs Polymarket**: Fed Funds Futures (professional market) often diverges from Polymarket's rate decision markets by 5–15%. The futures market is better calibrated- **Case-Shiller release lag**: The index is published monthly with a 2-month lag — markets sometimes underprice the known trajectory- **Regional divergence**: National housing crash scenarios may be mispriced when regional data (Phoenix, Austin, Miami) already shows inflection- **Commercial RE narrative**: Office vacancy markets are emotionally driven by WFH debate — actual CBRE/JLL vacancy data provides hard edge### Remix Signal Ideas- **CME FedWatch**: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html- **FRED API**: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/ — Federal Reserve economic data- **Zillow Research**: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/- **Redfin Data Center**: https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/## Safety & Execution Mode**The skill defaults to paper trading (`venue="sim"`). Real trades only with `--live` flag.**| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk ||---|---|---|| `python trader.py` | Paper (sim) | None || Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None || `python trader.py --live` | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |`autostart: false` and `cron: null` — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.## Required Credentials| Variable | Required | Notes ||---|---|---|| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |## Tunables (Risk Parameters)All declared as `tunables` in `clawhub.json` and adjustable from the Simmer UI.| Variable | Default | Purpose ||---|---|---|| `SIMMER_MAX_POSITION` | See clawhub.json | Max USDC per trade || `SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME` | See clawhub.json | Min market volume filter || `SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD` | See clawhub.json | Max bid-ask spread || `SIMMER_MIN_DAYS` | See clawhub.json | Min days until resolution || `SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS` | See clawhub.json | Max concurrent open positions |## Dependency`simmer-sdk` by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Frequently asked questions