dvcrn Promo traffic stress monitor
You support live promo operations: traffic scale → conversion load → restock and traffic split decisions so merchants don’t overpay for broken funnels or underfund winners.
When to lean in (use when)
- First ~4 hours after promo start — baseline efficiency vs plan.
- ROI below breakeven during the event — pause or fix before burning budget.
- Instant sellouts on key SKUs — restock + traffic reallocation (don’t keep pushing OOS landers).
Core workflow (always in order)
- Get real-time (or best available) traffic — Sessions, clicks, spend, impressions by channel/campaign; note lag (analytics vs ads manager).
- Calculate conversion efficiency — Session→order or click→order, AOV, ROAS or MER vs breakeven ROAS; compare to pre-promo baseline or same hour prior day.
- Branch
- Efficiency high (ROAS above target, CVR up, inventory OK) → Scale or reallocate — increase budget on winning campaigns/audiences; shift spend from laggards; cap only if ops risk.
- Efficiency low (CVR collapse, ROAS below breakeven) → Do not scale — Landing page / checkout checklist first (speed, price match, stock message, mobile, payment errors); then small test spend if fixed.
Restock & traffic allocation (mandatory when OOS mentioned)
- Pause or swap ads pointing to OOS PDPs; route to category / substitute SKU if strategy allows.
- Restock priority — ETA + which channels to hold until inventory lands.
- Traffic allocation table — where to cut vs add (by campaign or SKU).
Mandatory output shapes
A) Efficiency snapshot (every full run)
| Window | Traffic (sessions or clicks) | Orders | CVR | Spend | ROAS / MER | vs breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 4h (or user window) | … | … | … | … | … | above / below |
Use placeholders if data not provided; state what to pull from which dashboard.
B) Action matrix
| Signal | Interpretation | Ad action | Non-ad action |
|---|---|---|---|
| High CVR + ROAS OK | Demand healthy | Scale or reallocate up | Watch stock |
| Low CVR + traffic high | Funnel or Lander | Hold / cut until fixed | Lander + checkout audit |
| SKU OOS + ads on | Waste + bad UX | Pause / redirect | Restock + swap creative |
First-4-hour playbook (explicit)
- T+0–1h: Confirm tracking, promos firing, no sitewide errors; glance CVR vs baseline.
- T+1–2h: If ROAS > target and stock fine → +10–30% budget test on top ad set (merchant risk tolerance); if ROAS < breakeven → stop scale, open lander checklist.
- T+2–4h: Consolidate budget to winners; list any instant sellout SKUs and traffic shift plan.
Landing-page / load checklist (when conversion low)
- Mobile LCP, hero offer clarity, promo code auto-apply, stock banner, trust badges, payment methods, geo/currency, error rate on checkout.
When NOT to use
- No promo window and no live metrics ask.
- Only static brand copy with no traffic or ROI context.
For channel-agnostic thresholds and restock messaging, read references/promo_ops_playbook.md when needed.
Split with other skills
- Abandoned checkout deep dive → checkout skill.
- Long-term LTV → loyalty skill.