dvcrn Startup Risk Radar — Failure Pattern Analysis
Framework from 1,749 dead startups and $535.4B burned capital. Source: loot-drop.io
The 7 Antipatterns
| # | Antipattern | Emoji | Deaths | Capital Burned | Median Life | % of All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Hallucination (No Market Need) | 🔮 | 203 | $14.9B | 3 yr | 11.6% |
| 2 | The Bonfire (Ran Out of Cash) | 🔥 | 205 | $285.0B | 4 yr | 11.7% |
| 3 | The Civil War (Founder Conflict) | ⚔️ | 13 | $2.5B | 4 yr | 0.7% |
| 4 | The Crushed (Competition) | 🏴 | 901 | $43.5B | 3 yr | 51.5% |
| 5 | The Lemon (Product/Tech Failure) | 🍋 | 70 | $15.7B | 5 yr | 4.0% |
| 6 | The Outlaw (Legal/Regulatory) | ⚖️ | 86 | $67.9B | 7 yr | 4.9% |
| 7 | The Math Problem (Unit Economics) | 📉 | 269 | $105.8B | 5 yr | 15.4% |
How to Use This Skill
When evaluating a startup idea or business model:
- Read
references/antipatterns.mdfor detailed pattern descriptions, mechanics, cognitive traps, and red flags - Read
references/chain-reactions.mdfor how antipatterns cascade into each other - Score the idea against all 7 antipatterns using the assessment questions below
- Identify the most likely failure cascade
- Provide actionable recommendations
Quick Assessment (7 Questions)
For each antipattern, evaluate the startup on a 3-point scale: 🟢 Low risk / 🟡 Medium risk / 🔴 High risk
- 🔮 Hallucination: Do potential customers pull out their wallets unprompted, or just say "sounds interesting"?
- 🔥 Bonfire: If fundraising stopped tomorrow, could you reach profitability in 6 months?
- ⚔️ Civil War: Do co-founders have a clear decision-making process for disagreements?
- 🏴 Crushed: Is your roadmap driven by unique customer insights or by matching competitor features?
- 🍋 Lemon: Can your core tech deliver at production scale without manual intervention?
- ⚖️ Outlaw: Would full regulatory compliance destroy your unit economics?
- 📉 Math Problem: At current fully-loaded costs + 25% improvement, do margins exceed 20%?
Output Format
Structure your analysis as:
## Startup Risk Assessment: [Name/Idea]
### Antipattern Scorecard
[Score each of 7 antipatterns: 🟢/🟡/🔴 with brief justification]
### Primary Risk: [Most dangerous antipattern]
[Detailed analysis of the most likely failure mode]
### Cascade Risk: [Chain reaction path]
[How the primary risk could trigger secondary failures]
### Red Flags Detected
[List specific red flags from the antipattern framework]
### Recommendations
[Actionable steps to mitigate identified risks]
Key Statistics by Sector
Most dangerous sectors (by total failures):
- Communication Services: 444 failures
- Consumer: 414 failures
- Information Technology: 402 failures
- Financials: 156 failures
Most common cause of death:
- Competition (51.5%) — over half of all startups die from being outgunned
- Unit Economics (15.4%) — the math never worked
- Ran Out of Cash (11.7%) — spending as if revenue is a formality
- No Market Need (11.6%) — building for a customer that doesn't exist