Weather Ensemble Forecast
Compare weather forecasts from up to 9 independent global weather models side-by-side.
No setup needed -- just install and run /forecast nyc.
What this skill does
- Fetches high temperature forecasts from multiple weather models: GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, MeteoFrance, UKMO, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast
- Shows each model's individual prediction so you can see where they agree and disagree
- Calculates ensemble standard deviation (how uncertain the forecast is)
- Cross-validates with NWS (National Weather Service) official forecasts
- Covers 16 cities: NYC, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Toronto, London, Paris, Munich, Seoul, Ankara, Wellington, Lucknow, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo
Quick Start
/forecast nyc
That's it. Works immediately with free tier (NYC, Chicago, Miami).
For full access (all 16 cities), set an API key:
curl -X POST https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/keys/free
Then set: export WEATHER_ENSEMBLE_API_KEY="pm_your_key_here"
Commands
/forecast <city> - Get multi-model forecast
Compare forecasts from all available weather models for a city.
When the user asks for a weather forecast, temperature prediction, model comparison, or ensemble analysis, run:
bash {baseDir}/scripts/forecast.sh "<city>" "<date>"
Where <city> is a city key (e.g., nyc, london, seoul). Run /cities to see all options.
And <date> is optional, in YYYY-MM-DD format (defaults to tomorrow).
Display results showing each model's prediction, the ensemble average, and standard deviation.
/cities - List available cities
bash {baseDir}/scripts/cities.sh
Use Cases
- Weather enthusiasts: See how GFS, ECMWF, and other models compare for your city
- Event planners: Check forecast confidence before outdoor events
- Researchers: Access raw multi-model data for analysis
- Travelers: Get high-confidence forecasts when models agree, warnings when they don't
- Prediction market traders: Use ensemble data to evaluate temperature market positions (see polymarket-weather-scanner skill)
How It Works
- Queries the Weather Ensemble API for forecasts from each weather model
- Returns individual model predictions so you can see the spread
- Calculates ensemble statistics: mean, standard deviation
- Higher standard deviation = more uncertainty = models disagree
- Low standard deviation = high confidence = models agree
External Endpoints
All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server.
| Endpoint |
Data Sent |
Purpose |
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/forecast/{city} |
City, date, API key (if set) |
Get forecast |
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/cities |
API key (if set) |
List cities |
Security & Privacy
- Works without an API key (anonymous free tier with IP-based rate limiting)
- All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server (
polymarket-scanner.fly.dev) via HTTPS
- Weather data is sourced from Open-Meteo and aggregated server-side
- No personal data collected or stored
1---2name: weather-ensemble-forecast3description: Multi-model ensemble weather forecasts comparing GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast and more. Get high temperature predictions from up to 9 independent weather models with agreement analysis for 16 global cities.4---56# Weather Ensemble Forecast78Compare weather forecasts from up to 9 independent global weather models side-by-side.910No setup needed -- just install and run `/forecast nyc`.1112## What this skill does1314- Fetches high temperature forecasts from multiple weather models: GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, MeteoFrance, UKMO, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast15- Shows each model's individual prediction so you can see where they agree and disagree16- Calculates ensemble standard deviation (how uncertain the forecast is)17- Cross-validates with NWS (National Weather Service) official forecasts18- Covers 16 cities: NYC, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Toronto, London, Paris, Munich, Seoul, Ankara, Wellington, Lucknow, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo1920## Quick Start2122```23/forecast nyc24```2526That's it. Works immediately with free tier (NYC, Chicago, Miami).2728For full access (all 16 cities), set an API key:2930```31curl -X POST https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/keys/free32```3334Then set: `export WEATHER_ENSEMBLE_API_KEY="pm_your_key_here"`3536## Commands3738### `/forecast <city>` - Get multi-model forecast39Compare forecasts from all available weather models for a city.4041When the user asks for a weather forecast, temperature prediction, model comparison, or ensemble analysis, run:4243```bash44bash {baseDir}/scripts/forecast.sh "<city>" "<date>"45```4647Where `<city>` is a city key (e.g., nyc, london, seoul). Run `/cities` to see all options.4849And `<date>` is optional, in YYYY-MM-DD format (defaults to tomorrow).5051Display results showing each model's prediction, the ensemble average, and standard deviation.5253### `/cities` - List available cities5455```bash56bash {baseDir}/scripts/cities.sh57```5859## Use Cases6061- **Weather enthusiasts**: See how GFS, ECMWF, and other models compare for your city62- **Event planners**: Check forecast confidence before outdoor events63- **Researchers**: Access raw multi-model data for analysis64- **Travelers**: Get high-confidence forecasts when models agree, warnings when they don't65- **Prediction market traders**: Use ensemble data to evaluate temperature market positions (see polymarket-weather-scanner skill)6667## How It Works68691. Queries the Weather Ensemble API for forecasts from each weather model702. Returns individual model predictions so you can see the spread713. Calculates ensemble statistics: mean, standard deviation724. Higher standard deviation = more uncertainty = models disagree735. Low standard deviation = high confidence = models agree7475## External Endpoints7677All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server.7879| Endpoint | Data Sent | Purpose |80|----------|-----------|---------|81| `https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/forecast/{city}` | City, date, API key (if set) | Get forecast |82| `https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/cities` | API key (if set) | List cities |8384## Security & Privacy8586- Works without an API key (anonymous free tier with IP-based rate limiting)87- All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server (`polymarket-scanner.fly.dev`) via HTTPS88- Weather data is sourced from Open-Meteo and aggregated server-side89- No personal data collected or stored
dvcrn