fabioc-aloha Alex Effort Estimation
Convert human developer estimates to AI-assisted timelines.
Last Updated: April 2026
Quick Reference: Effort Units
| Unit | Time | Use For |
|---|---|---|
| ⚡ Instant | < 5 min | Single edit, lookup, generation |
| 🔄 Short | 5-30 min | Multi-file change, docs, skill |
| ⏱️ Medium | 30-60 min | Feature, test suite, debugging |
| 📦 Session | 1-2 hours | Major feature, release |
| 🗓️ Multi-session | 2+ hours | Large refactor, new system |
Conversion Table
| Task Type | Human → Alex | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Research | 8h → 45m | ×0.10 |
| Code generation | 4h → 35m | ×0.15 |
| Documentation | 4h → 25m | ×0.10 |
| Skill creation | 2h → 15m | ×0.12 |
| Refactoring | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
| Bug fix (known cause) | 2h → 35m | ×0.30 |
| Bug fix (unknown) | 4h → 2h | ×0.50 |
| Architecture design | 8h → 2h | ×0.25 |
| Test writing | 4h → 1.5h | ×0.40 |
| New feature (S) | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
| New feature (M) | 2d → 3h | ×0.20 |
| New feature (L) | 1w → 6h | ×0.15 |
| Release process | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
Formula: Alex Time = Human Estimate × Multiplier + Bottlenecks
What Accelerates (4-10×)
| Activity | Why Fast |
|---|---|
| Research | Semantic search vs browsing |
| Boilerplate | Generated, not typed |
| Multi-file edits | Parallel in one pass |
| Code review | Instant pattern recognition |
| Learning new tech | Bootstrap learning skill |
| Documentation | Generated from code/context |
Bottlenecks (Cannot Accelerate)
These take real time regardless of AI:
| Bottleneck | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Test execution | ×1.0 | Parallelize, fast feedback loops |
| Build/compile | ×1.0 | Incremental builds, caching |
| Human approval | Variable | Batch decisions, async review |
| External APIs | Variable | Mock for dev, timeout handling |
| CI/CD pipeline | ×1.0 | Optimize pipeline, parallel jobs |
| Context loading | ×0.8 | Pre-read relevant files |
Estimation Template
| Task | Human Est. | Alex Est. | Bottleneck |
|------|------------|-----------|------------|
| [Task] | [Xh/d] | [⚡🔄⏱️📦🗓️] | [None/Test/Approval/Build] |
Example:
| Task | Human | Alex | Bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add new API endpoint | 4h | 🔄 30m | None |
| Write integration tests | 3h | ⏱️ 1.5h | Test execution |
| Deploy to staging | 2h | 📦 1.5h | CI pipeline |
| Code review cycle | 2h | ⏱️ 2h | Human approval |
| Total | 11h | 📦 5.5h | - |
Planning Guidance
When Estimating
- Apply multiplier to core work
- Add bottleneck time at ×1.0
- Factor approval cycles (human response latency)
- Buffer 20% for unexpected iteration
Calibrated from 62-Project Retrospective
What Accelerates Well (4-10×)
| Task Type | Human | Alex | Factor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Documentation | 4h | 25m | 10× | METHODOLOGY doc: 400 lines in ~30 min |
| Skill creation | 2h | 15m | 8× | 65 skills created, many in single sessions |
| Code generation | 4h | 30m | 8× | Slash commands, refactors |
| Research + synthesis | 8h | 45m | 10× | 62 project analysis in ~20 min |
| Architecture decisions | 8h | 2h | 4× | Root cause analysis + recommendations |
What Doesn't Accelerate (<2×)
| Bottleneck | Why | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| External dependencies | Can't control | CookProject blocked by book formatting |
| Unrealistic scope | Must be discovered | Altman-Z-Score, KalabashDashboard |
Example: v4.2.5 Release Retrospective
| Task | Human Est. | Actual Alex | Bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Update engine to 1.109 | 30m | ⚡ 5 min | None |
| Consolidate 9→3 agents | 4h | 🔄 20 min | None |
| Create 6 slash commands | 2h | 🔄 15 min | None |
| Refactor dream to shared | 4h | ⏱️ 45 min | Testing |
| Test all features | 2h | ⏱️ 1h | Human testing |
| Release process | 4h | 📦 1h | CI/approval |
| Total | 16.5h | 📦 2.5h | - |
Acceleration factor: 6.6×
Success Predictors
| Good Sign | Bad Sign |
|---|---|
| Clear "done" definition | Vague scope |
| Quick win potential | External dependencies |
| Daily incremental work | Big-bang delivery |
| Defined acceptance criteria | "We'll know it when we see it" |
Scope Guidance
| Alex Estimate | Scope Health |
|---|---|
| ⚡ Instant | Perfect — ship it |
| 🔄 Short | Good — single session |
| ⏱️ Medium | OK — plan breaks |
| 📦 Session | Consider splitting |
| 🗓️ Multi-session | Split required |
Anti-Patterns
❌ Instant everything — Testing and approval take real time
❌ Skip review — Speed without quality is waste
❌ Ignore iteration — First attempt isn't always right
❌ Forget context — Reading workspace takes time
❌ No buffer — Edge cases and clarifications happen