FerroxLabs Pricing Stress-Test
Estimated time: 20-30 minutes
This workflow stress-tests pricing across three scenarios: elasticity, contribution margin, and LTV/CAC implications, ending in a recommendation memo. Act as the CFO: gather the pricing brief, infer elasticity, build bear/base/bull scenarios, compute LTV/CAC per scenario, and write the recommendation. Build steps are followed by review checkpoints where the user can refine before proceeding.
Step 1: Kickoff and gather the pricing brief (uses: finance-pricing-review)
Tell the user you will stress-test pricing across three scenarios. Ask for: current price, expected volume at that price, COGS or service-delivery cost per unit, and channel CAC if known. For real volume and cost figures, offer to read any file dropped into the chat (sales or COGS export) or pull from a connected source (Stripe for price and volume, or the connected ledger, database, or Google Sheets workbook). If neither is set up, ask them to attach the export.
- Input: current price, volume, unit cost, CAC; sales/COGS file or source
- Output: pricing_brief (the agreed pricing inputs)
- Key focus: a brief grounded in real price, volume, and unit cost
Step 2: Infer price elasticity (uses: finance-pricing-review)
From the brief, infer the price elasticity for this segment and present it with reasoning. Ask the user to override if they have real elasticity data.
- Input: pricing_brief
- Output: elasticity (the confirmed elasticity assumption)
- Key focus: an elasticity assumption the user accepts as reasonable
Step 3: Build three scenarios (uses: finance-pricing-review)
Build bear/base/bull scenarios in bear_base_bull mode from the brief and the elasticity assumption: volume, revenue, and contribution margin per scenario. Show the output.
- Input: pricing_brief, elasticity
- Output: scenarios (bear/base/bull with volume, revenue, margin)
- Key focus: contribution margin per scenario, not just top-line revenue
Step 4: Review and refine scenarios (uses: finance-pricing-review)
Present the three scenarios and ask whether to proceed to LTV/CAC or refine assumptions. If the user wants changes, capture feedback and rebuild the scenarios, then re-present. Loop up to three passes, then proceed.
- Input: scenarios, user refinement feedback
- Output: approved scenarios
- Key focus: scenarios the user trusts before layering LTV/CAC on them
Step 5: LTV/CAC per scenario (uses: finance-forecast)
Compute LTV/CAC per scenario in ltv_cac_per_scenario mode from the scenarios and the brief, so each price point shows its unit-economics implication. Show the output.
- Input: approved scenarios, pricing_brief
- Output: ltv_cac (LTV/CAC per scenario)
- Key focus: unit economics that reveal which price actually pays back
Step 6: Recommendation memo (uses: finance-pricing-review)
Write a recommendation in recommendation_memo mode from the scenarios and the LTV/CAC analysis, showing the math behind the recommended price. Show the output.
- Input: approved scenarios, ltv_cac
- Output: recommendation (the recommended price with reasoning)
- Key focus: a clear recommendation backed by the contribution-margin and LTV/CAC math
Step 7: Final review and ship (uses: finance-pricing-review)
Present the recommendation with the math behind it and ask whether to ship or refine. If the user wants changes, capture feedback and rebuild the recommendation (up to two passes), then re-present. On approval, assemble and deliver the pricing stress-test memo with sections for the brief, elasticity assumption, three scenarios, LTV/CAC per scenario, and the recommendation.
- Input: recommendation, user feedback, all prior outputs
- Output: pricing_memo (the shipped stress-test memo)
- Key focus: one memo that defends the price with the numbers