gabrielmoreira Budget Planning — Ngan Sach Marketing
Budget khong phai con so co dinh — la cong cu ra quyet dinh: dat cuoc vao dau, rut ve khi nao. Leader phai biet: tong dang tieu bao nhieu, ROI tung kenh la gi, cai nao can tang, cai nao can cat. Goi
10-tinh-kpi-nguocde tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target truoc khi phan bo.
Thu thap thong tin
Doc .agents/product-marketing-context.md, ke hoach marketing va report ky truoc neu co. Neu thieu, hoi toi da 4 cau:
- Budget tong va ky ke hoach? Tong bao nhieu, cho thang / quy / nam?
- Revenue target ky nay? De tinh marketing % of revenue va budget toi thieu.
- Kenh dang chay va ROI ky truoc? Meta / TikTok / Google / Zalo / Email / Agency — kenh nao ROAS/CPL tot nhat?
- Co campaign lon nao can reserve budget khong? Launch, Tet, seasonal peak?
Nguyen tac
- Budget follow performance — khong cung nhac theo plan ban dau. Kenh work → tang; kenh khong work → cat.
- Luon giu 10-15% reserve — khong allocate het ngay dau ky. Reserve dung cho co hoi bat ngo hoac su co.
- Moi dong chi ra phai co KPI do duoc — khong co "branding khong do duoc".
- Khong phan bo deu — tap trung vao kenh work nhat; kenh moi chi cap budget test toi thieu (10-15%) truoc.
- Tinh nguoc tu doanh thu, khong tu kenh — budget la ket qua cua bai toan revenue, khong phai con so tuy hung.
Quy trinh
Buoc 1 — Chon phuong phap thiet lap budget
| Phuong phap | Cach tinh | Uu diem | Nhuoc diem |
|---|---|---|---|
| % Doanh thu | Budget = X% doanh thu ky vong | Don gian | Khong phan anh giai doan tang truong |
| Tinh nguoc tu muc tieu (khuyen dung) | Dat doanh thu → tinh nguoc CAC/CPL | Logic, co can cu | Can biet CAC/CPL lich su |
| Theo doi thu | Benchmark ngan sach nganh | Tranh under-invest | Khong phan anh dieu kien rieng |
Cong thuc tinh nguoc 7 buoc (chi tiet dung 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc):
1. Doanh thu muc tieu
2. / AOV = So don can
3. / CVR chot (30-50%) = So hot lead can
4. / CVR nurture (50-60%) = So warm lead can
5. / CVR thu lead (20-40%) = Tong reach can
6. Tong lead x CPL = Budget ads toi thieu
7. + Content + Tool + Agency = Total marketing budget
Lap 3 scenario: Conservative (CVR thap hon TB nganh, CPL cao hon) · Base case (bang TB nganh) · Optimistic (sau khi toi uu). Ke hoach chinh dung Base, chuan bi tam ly bang Conservative.
Buoc 2 — Phan bo tong quan theo bucket
| Bucket | % goi y | Muc dich |
|---|---|---|
| Paid Ads (Performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, Zalo |
| Content Production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting |
| KOL / KOC / Seeding | 5-10% | Social proof, UGC |
| Agency / Freelancer | Theo scope | Neu co |
| Tools / Software | 2-5% | Ads tools, design tools, email/CRM |
| Campaign Reserve (du phong) | 10-15% | Co hoi bat ngo / su co — KHONG allocate truoc |
Buoc 3 — Phan bo theo kenh
Benchmark SME Vietnam (dieu chinh theo nganh va data rieng):
| Kenh | % ngan sach ads | Objective | Expected CPL/ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Ads (FB + IG) | 50-60% | Lead / Purchase | |
| TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / Lead | |
| Google Ads / SEO | 10-15% | Search intent | |
| Zalo Ads / OA | 5-10% | Retarget / Local / Nurture | |
| Kenh moi (test) | 10-15% | Validate |
Logic phan bo: kenh dang co ROAS/CPL tot → tang ti trong; kenh moi → budget test toi thieu truoc; khong phan bo deu.
Buoc 4 — Phan bo theo funnel va ti le test vs scale
Budget split chuan performance trong tung kenh:
| Muc dich | % | Ghi chu |
|---|---|---|
| Testing (creative + audience moi) | 30% | Luon co dong test — creative fatigue den nhanh |
| Scale (winner da xac nhan) | 50% | Chi scale campaign co data thang |
| Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — CPL re nhat funnel |
| Lookalike | 5% | Mo rong tu tep converter |
Theo funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness) — MOFU (lead/nurture) — BOFU (conversion/retarget) — ti le tuy giai doan: launch nghieng TOFU, mature nghieng BOFU + retention.
Buoc 5 — Phan bo theo campaign va thang
| Campaign | Thang | Budget | Objective | KPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always-on (retarget + nurture) | Ca ky | |||
| Campaign A (launch/seasonal) | ||||
| Testing budget | Ca ky | Thu kenh / angle moi | ||
| Reserve | — | 10-15% |
Buoc 6 — Nguong tang / cat budget (decision rules)
Tang budget khi (du CA 2 dieu kien):
- ROAS > target x 1.5 trong >= 7 ngay lien tiep, HOAC CPL < target x 0.7 va volume du
- Audience chua bao hoa (frequency < 2.5)
- Muc tang: +20-30% moi lan, khong gap doi dot ngot
Cat / pause budget khi (nguong cat lo):
| Dieu kien | Hanh dong |
|---|---|
| ROAS < break-even sau 14 ngay | Cat kenh/campaign, chuyen budget sang kenh work |
| CPL > target x 2 sau 7 ngay test | Pause, thay creative/audience truoc khi bat lai |
| Frequency > 4 | Audience saturation — dung scale, refresh creative |
| Spend > 110% ke hoach thang | Cap daily budget, review lai phan bo |
Vi du CPL rule hang tuan (nganh dich vu local — can chinh theo AOV cua ban): CPL < 12K & freq < 2.0 → WIN, scale +20-30% · 12-15K → acceptable, theo doi · 15-18K & freq 2.0-2.5 → optimize, thay creative · > 18K & freq > 2.5 → PAUSE, replace.
Khong bao gio tang budget khi CPL dang xau — fix creative/tracking truoc.
Buoc 7 — Tracker va review cadence
Budget tracker theo thang:
| Thang | Budget plan | Thuc chi | Variance | ROAS/ROI | Ghi chu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thang 1 | |||||
| Thang 2 | |||||
| Thang 3 | |||||
| Tong quy |
Review cadence:
| Nhip | Viec | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Hang tuan | Xem CPL/ROAS tung kenh — ap decision rules Buoc 6 | Dieu chinh ngay neu cham nguong |
| Hang thang | Review tong phan bo, budget reconciliation plan vs actual | Rebalance cho thang sau |
| Hang quy | Review chien luoc phan bo tong the, LTV:CAC | Dieu chinh strategy |
Suc khoe don vi kinh te — LTV:CAC:
| Ti le | Y nghia | Hanh dong |
|---|---|---|
| < 1:1 | Dang lo tren moi khach | Dung scale, fix product/price |
| 1:1 → 3:1 | Hoa von den kha thi | Toi uu conversion, tang AOV |
| > 3:1 | Healthy | Bat dau scale |
| > 5:1 | Rat tot | Tang ngan sach ads manh |
Cau truc ket qua
Ten file: budget-plan-[ten-thuong-hieu]-[YYYYMMDD].md — gom: I. Budget overview (tong, revenue target, marketing % of revenue, ky) · II. Phan bo bucket · III. Phan bo kenh · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Phan bo campaign/thang · VI. Decision rules + nguong cat lo · VII. Tracker · VIII. Review cadence.
Lien ket skill
10-tinh-kpi-nguoc: tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target — chay truoc buoc phan bo.00-ke-hoach-mkt: budget plan la Phan 4 chi tiet hoa cua ke hoach tong.54-media-plan: trien khai budget ads thanh media plan cu the theo campaign/adset.55-scaling-ads: quy trinh scale khi cham nguong tang budget.21-audit-ads-performance: audit khi kenh cham nguong cat lo lien tuc.07-bao-cao-marketing: budget reconciliation trong report thang.
Checklist chat luong
- Budget tinh nguoc tu revenue target, co 3 scenario
- Co du 3 lop phan bo: bucket → kenh → campaign/thang
- Ti le test vs scale ro rang (Testing 30 / Scale 50 / Retarget 15 / LAL 5)
- Reserve 10-15% duoc giu lai, khong allocate truoc
- Nguong tang va nguong cat lo co con so cu the (ROAS, CPL, frequency, so ngay)
- Kenh moi chi nhan budget test 10-15%
- Moi dong budget co KPI do duoc di kem
- Co tracker plan vs actual theo thang
- Review cadence tuan/thang/quy co output ro
- LTV:CAC duoc kiem tra truoc khi quyet dinh scale